Effectiveness of the Coral Tree Family Service family inpatient unit: a longitudinal study exploring change in family functioning

Child mental health disorders represent a major burden to public health in Australia due to high prevalence rates, the widespread impact across domains, and the potential for difficulties to persist into adolescence and adulthood. Extensive evidence exists for the use of parent management training and cognitive behavioural therapy to treat difficulties experienced by children; however, a proportion of children do not benefit as expected from these treatments. The use of complementary therapeutic approaches and variations to the mode and intensity of existing intervention is warranted; family inpatient units represent a unique example of this. The aim of this study is to evaluate the effectiveness of a well-established Australian inpatient unit that admits the whole family, for children aged 12 years and younger referred with mental health, behavioural, or emotional difficulties. This study's longitudinal within-subject study design utilised routinely collected outcome data from the systemic clinical outcome and routine evaluation, 15 item (SCORE-15)—a valid and reliable measure of family functioning—from a sample of 980 participants attending the Family Residential Program. This study reported significant improvement in family functioning across all outcome variables between baseline and post-intervention, with no variables returning to pre-intervention levels at follow-up. Clinically significant changes in overall family functioning showed that 37% of participant scores moved from the clinical range at baseline to the nonclinical range post-intervention. This study represents the first empirical evaluation of the Family Residential Program, and the reported results provide compelling evidence for the program to effect improvement in family functioning for families with long-standing and severe difficulties. Poor rates of questionnaire completion following intervention frequent the literature base of family inpatient units, with low post-intervention (56%) and follow-up (12%) rates evident in this study. This study uniquely contributes to the growing evidence base of family inpatient units using rigorous evaluation methods.     

A Bayesian latent spatial model for mapping the cortical signature of progression to Alzheimer's disease

Prior studies have shown that atrophy in vulnerable cortical regions is associated with an increased risk of progression to clinical dementia. In this work, we utilize the longitudinal structural magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) data from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) to investigate the relationship between the temporally changing spatial topography of cortical thickness and conversion from mild cognitive impairment to Alzheimer's disease (AD). We develop a novel Bayesian latent spatial model that employs the spatial information underlying the thickness effects across the cortical surface. The proposed method facilitates the development of imaging markers by reliably quantifying and mapping the regional vulnerability to AD progression across the cortical surface. Simulation results showed substantial gains in statistical power and estimation performance by accounting for the spatial structure of the association. Using MRI data from ADNI, we examined the topographic patterns of anatomic regions where cortical thinning is associated with an increased risk of developing AD.     

The Leveraging Effect of Supervisory Competencies Towards the Performance in Indian Manufacturing Group: A Structural Equation Modelling Approach

The quick pace of technological changes, market and industry changes, demographic composition change and society changes requires that human resource managers should revitalize their proficiencies to go with these new challenges. The manager who is a liaison in the organizational hierarchy does a very important job in the organization to direct and channel the employee cluster towards its organization goal, and ensure that each member of the team should be dynamic and prolific. The study on supervisory competency analysis is a crucial and fundamental requirement for any organization. The current study ‘The leveraging effect of Supervisory competencies towards the performance in Indian manufacturing group’ is based on primary data collected from one hundred and fifty employees working in a paper manufacturing industry. The data collected were analysed using SPSS and SMART PLS software. The results of the study revealed that the impact of supervisory competencies towards his performance is huge which accounts to 81% (R²?=?0.810) and towards the growth of whole organization is 35% (R²?=?0.356). This implies that if the supervisory level employees are competent enough by possessing certain competencies, his individual performance will do extreme wonders and will create a strong bond between him and the organization and also create an impact on organization growth by clear strategy formulation, creating committed workforce, developing the organization as learning organization and stimulating individual and group productivity.     

Changing compatibility of cohabitation and childbearing between young British women born in 1958 and 1970

We investigate the effect of parenthood on whether non-marital unions led to marriage or parting for two cohorts of British women when they were aged between 16 and 29. We compare the effect of conceptions leading to births and the presence and characteristics of children on the odds that a cohabitation was dissolved, or that it was converted to marriage, for women born in 1958 and 1970. A multilevel, multiprocess, competing-risks model allows for multiple cohabitations per woman and endogeneity of fertility status. We find that cohabiting couples’ response to impending parenthood and the presence of children changed over time. In particular, the proportion of cohabiting couples who married before a birth decreased and, in the 1970 cohort only, the risk of dissolution declined during pregnancy. There is also evidence that the presence of a child cemented a cohabiting union for women from the 1970, but not the earlier, cohort.     

Host-feeding and oviposition strategies of parasitoids in relation to host stage

Summary Until now, mathematical models of parasitoid-host interactions have not incorporated the tendency for destructively host-feeding parasitoids to partition their feeding and oviposition behaviour in relation to different host stages. A literature survey reveals a trend for female parasitoids to feed preferentially or exclusively on earlier host stages and to oviposit preferentially or exclusively in/or later ones. We explore the relative advantages to host-feeding parasitoids of a number of possible host stage selection strategies. We develop hypotheses, formalizing and testing them using modifications to our earlier simulation model of host-feeding strategies (Jervis and Kidd, 1986). We conclude from our modelling that the advantage to be gained from feeding on early host stages and ovipositing in late ones is likely to be associated with: 1) reduced handling times when feeding on early stage hosts; 2) reduced wastage of progeny from mortality factors other than host-feeding by the parent parasitoid, achieved by confining oviposition to late host stages; and 3) reduced probability of progeny mortality resulting from the parent's host-feeding activities.     

Sample‐size calculations for multi‐group comparison in population pharmacokinetic experiments

This paper describes an approach for calculating sample size for population pharmacokinetic experiments that involve hypothesis testing based on multi‐group comparison detecting the difference in parameters between groups under mixed‐effects modelling. This approach extends what has been described for generalized linear models and nonlinear population pharmacokinetic models that involve only binary covariates to more complex nonlinear population pharmacokinetic models. The structural nonlinear model is linearized around the random effects to obtain the marginal model and the hypothesis testing involving model parameters is based on Wald's test. This approach provides an efficient and fast method for calculating sample size for hypothesis testing in population pharmacokinetic models. The approach can also handle different design problems such as unequal allocation of subjects to groups and unbalanced sampling times between and within groups. The results obtained following application to a one compartment intravenous bolus dose model that involved three different hypotheses under different scenarios showed good agreement between the power obtained from NONMEM simulations and nominal power. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

国债市场利率期限结构波动的对偶变换建模

本文针对传统利率期限结构拟合曲线存在过度波动问题,构建定价误差绝对距离和波动曲率双重最优化模型,借助对偶几何程序转换为在线性约束区域内的绝对距离最小化问题,并运用负指数平滑立方L1样条和计算几何逼近算法求解模型参数,通过负指数立方L1样条、NSS模型和B样条进行样本内拟合与样本外预测能力的比较,证实负指数立方L1平滑样条对利率期限结构波动的定价精确度、结构性拟合和样本外预测能力均有明显的优势,丰富了国债市场利率期限结构波动与定价的理论基础和研究方法。     

Regression Modelling of Disease Risk in Relation to Point Sources

We describe a class of models for the investigation of possible raised risk of disease around putative sources of environmental pollution. An adaptation of the point process method suggested by Diggle and Rowlingson is presented, allowing the use of routinely available aggregated data and incorporating the more general distance–risk model suggested by Elliott and co-workers. An application to data on cancers of the stomach around municipal solid waste incinerators is presented.     

Markov random-field models for estimating local labour markets

Summary. This work is motivated by data on daily travel-to-work flows observed between pairs of elemental territorial units of an Italian region. The data were collected during the 1991 population census. The aim of the analysis is to partition the region into local labour markets. We present a new method for this which is inspired by the Bayesian texture segmentation approach. We introduce a novel Markov random-field model for the distribution of the variables that label the local labour markets for each territorial unit. Inference is performed by means of Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. The issue of model hyperparameter estimation is also addressed. We compare the results with those obtained by applying a classical method. The methodology can be applied with minor modifications to other data sets.