A GENEALOGY OF CORRESPONDENCE ANALYSIS

Over the past half a century correspondence analysis has grown from a little known statistical technique designed to graphically depict the association structure of categorical variables that form a contingency table to a very popular tool used in a wide variety of disciplines. Despite this growth, correspondence analysis remains relatively unknown in some parts of the world, including the Australasian statistical community. This paper provides a non‐technical, bibliographic exploration of correspondence analysis. We take a step back to view the development of this statistical technique and provide a brief account of its genealogy with a selection of over 270 key publications that have contributed to its growth. We also look at its maturity over the decades.     

Viewpoint: model selection uncertainty,pre‐specification,and model averaging

Scientific progress in all empirical sciences relies on selecting models and performing inferences from selected models. Standard statistical properties (e.g., repeated sampling coverage probability of confidence intervals) cannot be guaranteed after a model selection. This viewpoint reviews this dilemma, puts the role that pre‐specification can play into perspective and illustrates model averaging as a way to relax the problem of model selection uncertainty. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Assessing the bias due to non-coverage of residential movers in the German Microcensus Panel: an evaluation using data from the Socio-Economic Panel

The German Microcensus (MC) is a large scale rotating panel survey over three years. The MC is attractive for longitudinal analysis over the entire participation duration because of the mandatory participation and the very high case numbers (about 200000 respondents). However, as a consequence of the area sampling that is used for the MC, residential mobility is not covered and consequently statistical information at the new residence is lacking in the MC sample. This raises the question whether longitudinal analyses, like transitions between labour market states, are biased and how different methods perform that promise to reduce such a bias. Similar problems occur also for other national Labour Force Surveys (LFS) which are rotating panels and do not cover residential mobility, see Clarke and Tate (2002). Based on data of the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP), which covers residential mobility, we analysed the effects of missing data of residential movers by the estimation of labour force flows. By comparing the results from the complete SOEP sample and the results from the SOEP, restricted to the non-movers, we concluded that the non-coverage of the residential movers can not be ignored in Rubin’s sense. With respect to correction methods we analysed weighting by inverse mobility scores and log-linear models for partially observed contingency tables. Our results indicate that weighting by inverse mobility scores reduces the bias to about 60% whereas the official longitudinal weights obtained by calibration result in a bias reduction of about 80%. The estimation of log-linear models for non-ignorable non-response leads to very unstable results.     

Analysis of longitudinal data with drop-out: objectives, assumptions and a proposal

Summary. The problem of analysing longitudinal data that are complicated by possibly informative drop-out has received considerable attention in the statistical literature. Most researchers have concentrated on either methodology or application, but we begin this paper by arguing that more attention could be given to study objectives and to the relevant targets for inference. Next we summarize a variety of approaches that have been suggested for dealing with drop-out. A long-standing concern in this subject area is that all methods require untestable assumptions. We discuss circumstances in which we are willing to make such assumptions and we propose a new and computationally efficient modelling and analysis procedure for these situations. We assume a dynamic linear model for the expected increments of a constructed variable, under which subject-specific random effects follow a martingale process in the absence of drop-out. Informal diagnostic procedures to assess the tenability of the assumption are proposed. The paper is completed by simulations and a comparison of our method and several alternatives in the analysis of data from a trial into the treatment of schizophrenia, in which approximately 50% of recruited subjects dropped out before the final scheduled measurement time.     

Semiparametric statistical inferences for longitudinal data with nonparametric covariance modelling

In this paper, semiparametric modelling for longitudinal data with an unstructured error process is considered. We propose a partially linear additive regression model for longitudinal data in which within-subject variances and covariances of the error process are described by unknown univariate and bivariate functions, respectively. We provide an estimating approach in which polynomial splines are used to approximate the additive nonparametric components and the within-subject variance and covariance functions are estimated nonparametrically. Both the asymptotic normality of the resulting parametric component estimators and optimal convergence rate of the resulting nonparametric component estimators are established. In addition, we develop a variable selection procedure to identify significant parametric and nonparametric components simultaneously. We show that the proposed SCAD penalty-based estimators of non-zero components have an oracle property. Some simulation studies are conducted to examine the finite-sample performance of the proposed estimation and variable selection procedures. A real data set is also analysed to demonstrate the usefulness of the proposed method.     

论中国古代建筑的造型

与对宇宙图形的想象紧密关联,中国古人的知觉习惯中,方是最主要的建筑造型。西方建筑中的方围绕中心展开;中国古代建筑中的方则是一种四方概念的系统化结果。中国古代建筑实际上塑造出的是一个四方聚合的复杂系统,是一种生态美学的选择。     

A SARIMAX coupled modelling applied to individual load curves intraday forecasting

A dynamic coupled modelling is investigated to take temperature into account in the individual energy consumption forecasting. The objective is both to avoid the inherent complexity of exhaustive SARIMAX models and to take advantage of the usual linear relation between energy consumption and temperature for thermosensitive customers. We first recall some issues related to individual load curves forecasting. Then, we propose and study the properties of a dynamic coupled modelling taking temperature into account as an exogenous contribution and its application to the intraday prediction of energy consumption. Finally, these theoretical results are illustrated on a real individual load curve. The authors discuss the relevance of such an approach and anticipate that it could form a substantial alternative to the commonly used methods for energy consumption forecasting of individual customers.     

A new behavioural model for fertility schedules

Modelling age-specific fertility rates is of great importance in demography because of their influence on population growth. Although we have a variety of fertility models in the demographic literature, most of them do not have any demographic interpretation for their parameters. It is generally expected that models with behavioural interpretation are more universal than those without any interpretation. Even though the famous Gompertz model has some behavioural interpretation it suffers from other drawbacks. In the present work, we propose a new fertility model, which has its genesis in the generalization of logistic law. The proposed model has good behavioural interpretation, alongside having nice parameter interpretations.     

A hybrid approach to the study of CPFR implementation enablers

Collaborative planning, forecasting and replenishment (CPFR) is one of the most important but also one of the most difficult collaborative strategies in supply chain management. CPFR has been well documented in past research as providing significant benefit to those that implement it well. It has also been noted that CPFR uptake has been significantly lower than initially expected. The main reason for this slow uptake is the general recognition that successful implementation of CPFR is not a trivial task and the fact that it inflicts dramatic changes to the ‘usual’ way of doing business. Based on the premise that CPFR has significant positive potential for supply chain collaboration, the motivation of this paper is to review CPFR enablers and to develop a model which addresses the most significant ones. To complete this task, a hybrid modelling approach integrating fuzzy extended analytical hierarchy process and interpretive structural modelling is proposed. The model developed is based on an identified gap by the automotive sector and embeds expert opinion, from two separate industrial groups in the automotive sector through the use of workshops. Although potential success factors for CPFR implementation can vary across somewhat between differing supply chains, the results maintain wider general applicability due to the many common issues across sectors. The paper highlights the need for decision-makers to be aware of the most influential enablers prior to a CPFR implementation project and to understand the relationships between these enablers.