货币政策操作工具选择基准的理论分析

中央银行实施货币政策的过程就是运用操作工具实现政策目标的过程，为更好地实现既定的货币政策目标，中央银行应该依据一定的基准选择操作工具。中央银行选择操作工具的基准包括理论基准和实证基准，其中，前者包括外在性基准和内在性基准。内在性基准是其日常操作中最重要的选择基准，它又有主动性基准、微调性基准、信号功能基准、时效性基准和可操作性基准等内容。     

Classical testing in functional linear models

We extend four tests common in classical regression – Wald, score, likelihood ratio and F tests – to functional linear regression, for testing the null hypothesis, that there is no association between a scalar response and a functional covariate. Using functional principal component analysis, we re-express the functional linear model as a standard linear model, where the effect of the functional covariate can be approximated by a finite linear combination of the functional principal component scores. In this setting, we consider application of the four traditional tests. The proposed testing procedures are investigated theoretically for densely observed functional covariates when the number of principal components diverges. Using the theoretical distribution of the tests under the alternative hypothesis, we develop a procedure for sample size calculation in the context of functional linear regression. The four tests are further compared numerically for both densely and sparsely observed noisy functional data in simulation experiments and using two real data applications.     

基于高维分步投影的多重分区聚类算法

数据分布密度划分的聚类算法是数据挖掘聚类算法的主要方法之一。针对传统密度划分聚类算法存在运算复杂、运行效率不高等缺陷，设计高维分步投影的多重分区聚类算法；以高维分布投影密度为依据，对数据集进行多重分区，产生数据集的子簇空间，并进行子簇合并，形成理想的聚类结果；依据该算法进行实验，结果证明该算法具有运算简单和运行效率高等优良性。     

食品安全检测紧缺人才培养模式的实践与探索

以新时期高等教育理念为指导,围绕产、学、研、用四个环节,教学实践中探索出食品安全人才培养模式:紧密结合生产、生活实际,注重实践应用;建设完善食品安全相关特色课程体系,提高教学水平,培养实用人才;结合食品安全法从法律角度提升人才培养,使培养的人才同时具备科学性和法律的规范性;研究性教学、研究性实验,由培养实用人才迈向培养有研究能力、创新能力的人才。     

全球化背景下的中国现代性建构

全球化并不预示着一个全球大同时代的来临，反而在很大程度上表现了文化之间的差异性甚至对抗性。在这样的时代背景下，对于各民族文化尤其是对非西方社会来说，如何理解现代性与追求自身的现代化，成为一个紧迫的任务。在中国现代性的建构过程中，既要求加深对现代性的理解，也要求更好地把握自己的文化传统。     

岩体变形参数的应力状态效应研究

岩体力学参数存在随应力状态不同而变化的特性，称为应力状态效应。岩体力学特性的实测值具有空间场分布特征，分析表明地应力（或围压）的有规律变化是造成岩体力学参数空间变化的主要原因。考虑到实测地应力多具有较大的离散型，尝试利用反演方法获取地应力场信息，通过多元回归分析得到实测岩体变形参数与地应力的经验关系，以研究岩体变形参数的应力状态效应。通过一工程实例研究：得到地下厂房区域的岩体变形模量为16 GPa左右，与反演分析结果也比较符合；通过应力状态效应研究得到的岩体变形参数物理场，是一个渐变的物理场模型，是更为符     

Gay and Bisexual Men’s Experiences Using Self-Testing Kits for HIV and Rectal and Urethral Bacterial Sexually Transmitted Infections: Lessons Learned from a Study With Home-Based Testing

Abstract

Objectives: This study investigated the experiences of gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men (GBM) conducting HIV and sexually transmitted infection (STI) self-testing procedures. Methods: We analyzed mixed-methods data from 11 GBM who self-tested HIV-positive and 1,070 HIV-negative GBM who completed the HIV self-testing and STI self-sampling procedures. Results: Nearly all (99%) reported ease in urine-based STI self-sampling and most (90%) found rectal swab self-collection easy. Most (94%) checked their rapid-HIV self-testing results during the correct window (20-40 minutes), and nearly all (99%) trusted their HIV results. Conclusions: Recommendations for future self-testing procedures are provided based on findings from free-response data.     

A statistical measure of internal consistency

A test for homogeneity of several populations against the simple tree alternative is proposed when the observations in various groups are subject to the same pattern of random right-censorship. The test is a generalization of the one proposed by Slivka (1970) which is useful when testing time is expensive so that an early termination of an experiment is desirable. The power of the test is examined in a simulation study.     

Specification and testing of multiplicative time-varying GARCH models with applications

In this article, we develop a specification technique for building multiplicative time-varying GARCH models of Amado and Teräsvirta (2008, 2013). The variance is decomposed into an unconditional and a conditional component such that the unconditional variance component is allowed to evolve smoothly over time. This nonstationary component is defined as a linear combination of logistic transition functions with time as the transition variable. The appropriate number of transition functions is determined by a sequence of specification tests. For that purpose, a coherent modelling strategy based on statistical inference is presented. It is heavily dependent on Lagrange multiplier type misspecification tests. The tests are easily implemented as they are entirely based on auxiliary regressions. Finite-sample properties of the strategy and tests are examined by simulation. The modelling strategy is illustrated in practice with two real examples: an empirical application to daily exchange rate returns and another one to daily coffee futures returns.     

Using multiple imputation to estimate cumulative distribution functions in longitudinal data analysis with data missing at random

In longitudinal clinical studies, after randomization at baseline, subjects are followed for a period of time for development of symptoms. The interested inference could be the mean change from baseline to a particular visit in some lab values, the proportion of responders to some threshold category at a particular visit post baseline, or the time to some important event. However, in some applications, the interest may be in estimating the cumulative distribution function (CDF) at a fixed time point post baseline. When the data are fully observed, the CDF can be estimated by the empirical CDF. When patients discontinue prematurely during the course of the study, the empirical CDF cannot be directly used. In this paper, we use multiple imputation as a way to estimate the CDF in longitudinal studies when data are missing at random. The validity of the method is assessed on the basis of the bias and the Kolmogorov–Smirnov distance. The results suggest that multiple imputation yields less bias and less variability than the often used last observation carried forward method. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.