居住小区建成环境对住宅用电量的影响研究——以天津生态城为例

系统揭示建成环境对住宅用电量的影响机理对于构建低碳城市具有重要意义.以天津生态城为研究对象,基于23个居住小区样本和14016个住宅样本,运用多元线性回归模型分析了建成环境各要素对住宅用电量的影响,揭示了建成环境对住宅用电量的影响程度和机理,并从开发密度、户型设计、空间布局、开敞空间提出了有利于降低住宅用电量的建成环境优化策略.     

NAPLAN data: a new policy assemblage and mode of governance in Australian schooling

ABSTRACT

As part of a policy assemblage, the National Assessment Program – Literacy and Numeracy (NAPLAN) is representative of a new mode of governance for Australia's schooling systems, indicative of international trends in educational accountability based on testing. The policy assumption was that the introduction of a national performance measurement system would tightly couple school practices to national agendas targeted at improving learning outcomes. This paper presents a comparative case study of two primary schools within a single Queensland region to interrogate how coupling and decoupling strategies are enacted in respect of the policy usage of NAPLAN data. The granular analysis of the governance relationship between the school principals and their supervisors is set against the politics, policies and pressures of NAPLAN that recast the initiative as high stakes for systems, schools and their leadership. Specifically, we argue that Queensland's choice and enactment of policy instruments have produced a new mode of governance of principal conduct, but one mediated by the specific contexts of the two schools. The analysis shows how this mode has precipitated two types of decoupling.     

基于最大偏差原则的群体性事件应急管理绩效评价模型

群体性突发事件应急管理绩效评价具有价值判断冲突性、结构嵌入性和语义模糊性等非常规特征。针对群体性突发事件的矛盾对抗性特征,根据"着重解决群众反映意见较大的突出问题"的善后处置原则,构建了基于最大偏差原则的多属性评价模型。首先,在社会结构、应急策略和评价指标等多重维度下,构建了件应急管理绩效评价指标体系,包括效率、公平、收敛性、稳定性和适应性。其次,针对价值判断冲突特征,提出基于最大偏差原则的二元语义信息处理方法:偏差越大,表明该属性能够更好的反映出事态冲突性,应赋予越高的权重。最后,结合某住宅小区锅炉房拆迁案例的全样本调查数据进行实证分析。结果表明,相对于模糊综合评价模型和最小偏差原则的二元语义模型,基于最大偏差原则更能反映出群体性突发事件应急管理绩效评价的价值冲突性。     

基于DA插补法的线性回归模型系数估计值的模拟研究

Data Augmentation(DA)插补法是最常用的MCMC多重插补法之一。利用模拟方法研究基于DA插补法的线性回归模型的系数估计值,分析估计值的统计性质受无回答机制、无回答率和插补重数的影响。模拟结果显示:在完全随机无回答机制下,选择较小插补重数常常会得到较好的回归系数估计值;在随机无回答机制下,随着无回答率增大而选择更大插补重数往往会得到更好的回归系数估计值;在非随机无回答机制下,选择更大插补重数并不一定总会得到更好的回归系数估计值。     

B-CAPM模型的GMM估计和检验

作为资本资产定价模型（CAPM）的发展之一,B-CAPM模型更适合于复杂多变的现实资本市场。本文首先分析从CAPM到B-CAPM的模型转化及其理论含义,然后迭代求出B-CAPM模型的零贝塔期望收益的极大似然估计值（MLE）,最后通过案例,实证运用GMM方法构建B-CAPM的估计和检验。结果表明,B-CAPM模型适用于证券市场收益和风险的度量以及有效性检验,GMM方法更符合实际。     

论唐代试诗体系的构建及与文德政治之关系

唐代“以诗取士”择才标准与方式的产生有其服务于文德政治的特定用意,这与统治者尊孔崇儒、认同诗歌政教功能的思想有关。通过全面考察进士科、吏部铨试、博学宏词科、制举、翰林学士院考试中的试诗现象,可以发现唐代在举士选官领域建立了一个较为完整的试诗体系,它对文德政治的实现产生了重要影响。     

一种具有不确定偏好序信息的多指标群决策方法

针对具有不确定偏好序信息的多指标群决策问题,给出了一种决策分析方法。在本文中,首先对具有不确定偏好序信息的多指标群决策问题进行了描述;然后给出了将不确定偏好序转换为投票数的计算公式;进一步地,依据Bernardo方法的基本思想,根据每个专家给出的不确定偏好序信息,计算相应的投票数并构建群体投票矩阵,并基于群体投票矩阵构建0-1整数规划模型,通过求解模型可得到方案排序结果。最后,通过一个算例以及与已有方法的对比分析说明了本文给出的方法的可行性和有效性。     

系统功能语法多重主位问题探讨

继德国学者和布拉格学派学者对主位结构的研究之后,系统功能语言学者,尤其是Halliday对主位结构进行了相当广泛的研究,但多重主位的界定与序列结构仍然需要进一步加以探讨。文章从概念主位中的重合问题、多重主位的界限问题以及研究主位结构的意义等角度出发,具体分析了Halliday的多重主位观所存在的问题。      

The use of conditional cutoffs in a forward selection procedure

Using a forward selection procedure for selecting the best subset of regression variables involves the calculation of critical values (cutoffs) for an F-ratio at each step of a multistep search process. On dropping the restrictive (unrealistic) assumptions used in previous works, the null distribution of the F-ratio depends on unknown regression parameters for the variables already included in the subset. For the case of known σ, by conditioning the F-ratio on the set of regressors included so far and also on the observed (estimated) values of their regression coefficients, we obtain a forward selection procedure whose stepwise type I error does not depend on the unknown (nuisance) parameters. A numerical example with an orthogonal design matrix illustrates the difference between conditional cutoffs, cutoffs for the centralF-distribution, and cutoffs suggested by Pope and Webster.