Identification-robust moment-based tests for Markov switching in autoregressive models

ABSTRACT

This paper develops tests of the null hypothesis of linearity in the context of autoregressive models with Markov-switching means and variances. These tests are robust to the identification failures that plague conventional likelihood-based inference methods. The approach exploits the moments of normal mixtures implied by the regime-switching process and uses Monte Carlo test techniques to deal with the presence of an autoregressive component in the model specification. The proposed tests have very respectable power in comparison with the optimal tests for Markov-switching parameters of Carrasco et al. (2014 Carrasco, M., Hu, L., Ploberger, W. (2014). Optimal test for Markov switching parameters. Econometrica 82(2):765–784.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]), and they are also quite attractive owing to their computational simplicity. The new tests are illustrated with an empirical application to an autoregressive model of USA output growth.     

Bivariate,multivariate, and matrix variate normal characterizations: A brief survey II

The paper entitled “Bivariate and Multivariate Normal Characterizations: A Brief Survey,” by Hamedani, which was published in 1992, covered the published characterizations of bivariate and multivariate normal (MVN) distributions from 1941 to 1991. The present work is a follow-up to the 1991/1992 survey which includes not only characterizations of the bivariate and MVN distributions, but also characterizations of the matrix variate normal distribution, which have appeared from 1991/1992 to the present.     

ADE-4: a multivariate analysis and graphical display software

We present ADE-4, a multivariate analysis and graphical display software. Multivariate analysis methods available in ADE-4 include usual one-table methods like principal component analysis and correspondence analysis, spatial data analysis methods (using a total variance decomposition into local and global components, analogous to Moran and Geary indices), discriminant analysis and within/between groups analyses, many linear regression methods including lowess and polynomial regression, multiple and PLS (partial least squares) regression and orthogonal regression (principal component regression), projection methods like principal component analysis on instrumental variables, canonical correspondence analysis and many other variants, coinertia analysis and the RLQ method, and several three-way table (k-table) analysis methods. Graphical display techniques include an automatic collection of elementary graphics corresponding to groups of rows or to columns in the data table, thus providing a very efficient way for automatic k-table graphics and geographical mapping options. A dynamic graphic module allows interactive operations like searching, zooming, selection of points, and display of data values on factor maps. The user interface is simple and homogeneous among all the programs; this contributes to making the use of ADE-4 very easy for non- specialists in statistics, data analysis or computer science.     

水库移民对移民机构的满意度及其影响因素分析——基于江西省1361份移民样本的实地调查数据

依据江西省1 361户水库移民样本调查数据,运用多元有序Logistic模型,实证分析了水库移民对移民机构的满意度及其影响因素。结果表明,水库移民对移民机构的评价较高,在基本满意以上的达94.5%;扶持项目安排情况对水库移民评价移民机构产生了显著的负向影响;直补资金发放、扶持项目征求移民意见情况、项目扶持工作评价、项目管理情况、对申诉政策与渠道的了解情况等因素对水库移民评价移民机构产生了显著的正向影响。     

A Bayesian approach to non-parametric monotone function estimation

Summary.  The paper proposes two Bayesian approaches to non-parametric monotone function estimation. The first approach uses a hierarchical Bayes framework and a characterization of smooth monotone functions given by Ramsay that allows unconstrained estimation. The second approach uses a Bayesian regression spline model of Smith and Kohn with a mixture distribution of constrained normal distributions as the prior for the regression coefficients to ensure the monotonicity of the resulting function estimate. The small sample properties of the two function estimators across a range of functions are provided via simulation and compared with existing methods. Asymptotic results are also given that show that Bayesian methods provide consistent function estimators for a large class of smooth functions. An example is provided involving economic demand functions that illustrates the application of the constrained regression spline estimator in the context of a multiple-regression model where two functions are constrained to be monotone.     

A robust multivariate measurement error model with skew-normal/independent distributions and Bayesian MCMC implementation

Skew-normal/independent distributions are a class of asymmetric thick-tailed distributions that include the skew-normal distribution as a special case. In this paper, we explore the use of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods to develop a Bayesian analysis in multivariate measurement errors models. We propose the use of skew-normal/independent distributions to model the unobserved value of the covariates (latent variable) and symmetric normal/independent distributions for the random errors term, providing an appealing robust alternative to the usual symmetric process in multivariate measurement errors models. Among the distributions that belong to this class of distributions, we examine univariate and multivariate versions of the skew-normal, skew-t, skew-slash and skew-contaminated normal distributions. The results and methods are applied to a real data set.     

Extension of the pool-adjacent-violators algorithm

The pool-adjacent-violators algorithm (PAVA) is an efficient algorithm which converges in a finite number of steps. However, it has been applicable so far only in isotonic regression with the simple order. This report extends its applicability to other quadratic programming problems, including certain one-sided multivariate testing problems and concave regression problems.