Bayesian analysis of multivariate stochastic volatility with skew return distribution

Multivariate stochastic volatility models with skew distributions are proposed. Exploiting Cholesky stochastic volatility modeling, univariate stochastic volatility processes with leverage effect and generalized hyperbolic skew t-distributions are embedded to multivariate analysis with time-varying correlations. Bayesian modeling allows this approach to provide parsimonious skew structure and to easily scale up for high-dimensional problem. Analyses of daily stock returns are illustrated. Empirical results show that the time-varying correlations and the sparse skew structure contribute to improved prediction performance and Value-at-Risk forecasts.     

A Diversity Index for Model Space Selection in the Estimation of Benchmark and Infectious Doses via Model Averaging

In chemical and microbial risk assessments, risk assessors fit dose‐response models to high‐dose data and extrapolate downward to risk levels in the range of 1–10%. Although multiple dose‐response models may be able to fit the data adequately in the experimental range, the estimated effective dose (ED) corresponding to an extremely small risk can be substantially different from model to model. In this respect, model averaging (MA) provides more robustness than a single dose‐response model in the point and interval estimation of an ED. In MA, accounting for both data uncertainty and model uncertainty is crucial, but addressing model uncertainty is not achieved simply by increasing the number of models in a model space. A plausible set of models for MA can be characterized by goodness of fit and diversity surrounding the truth. We propose a diversity index (DI) to balance between these two characteristics in model space selection. It addresses a collective property of a model space rather than individual performance of each model. Tuning parameters in the DI control the size of the model space for MA.     

Exact monte carlo tests using several statistics

Concepts of ranking and boundary of multivariate statistics are discussed and applied to the simultaneous use of several test statistics calculated for data and simulated replicates. An example of residual analysis in regression is given using layer ranks and supplementary simulation with a stopping rule.     

An improved two-stage procedure to compare hazard curves

Qiu and Sheng has proposed a powerful and robust two-stage procedure to compare two hazard rate functions. In this paper we improve their method by using the Fisher test to combine the asymptotically independent p-values obtained from the two stages of their procedure. In addition, we extend the procedure to situations with multiple hazard rate functions. Our comprehensive simulation study shows that the proposed method has a good performance in terms of controlling the type I error rate and of detecting power. Three real data applications are considered for illustrating the use of the new method.     

Generalizing the standardized hazard ratio to multivariate proportional hazards regression,with an application to clinical~genomic studies

The standardized hazard ratio for univariate proportional hazards regression is generalized as a scalar to multivariate proportional hazards regression. Estimators of the standardized log hazard ratio are developed, with corrections for bias and for regression to the mean in high-dimensional analyses. Tests of point and interval null hypotheses and confidence intervals are constructed. Cohort sampling study designs, commonly used in prospective–retrospective clinical genomic studies, are accommodated.     

Incorporating Time‐Dose‐Response into Legionella Outbreak Models

A novel method was used to incorporate in vivo host–pathogen dynamics into a new robust outbreak model for legionellosis. Dose‐response and time‐dose‐response (TDR) models were generated for Legionella longbeachae exposure to mice via the intratracheal route using a maximum likelihood estimation approach. The best‐fit TDR model was then incorporated into two L. pneumophila outbreak models: an outbreak that occurred at a spa in Japan, and one that occurred in a Melbourne aquarium. The best‐fit TDR from the murine dosing study was the beta‐Poisson with exponential‐reciprocal dependency model, which had a minimized deviance of 32.9. This model was tested against other incubation distributions in the Japan outbreak, and performed consistently well, with reported deviances ranging from 32 to 35. In the case of the Melbourne outbreak, the exponential model with exponential dependency was tested against non‐time‐dependent distributions to explore the performance of the time‐dependent model with the lowest number of parameters. This model reported low minimized deviances around 8 for the Weibull, gamma, and lognormal exposure distribution cases. This work shows that the incorporation of a time factor into outbreak distributions provides models with acceptable fits that can provide insight into the in vivo dynamics of the host‐pathogen system.     

An approach to measure distance between compositional diet estimates containing essential zeros

For many applications involving compositional data, it is necessary to establish a valid measure of distance, yet when essential zeros are present traditional distance measures are problematic. In quantitative fatty acid signature analysis (QFASA), compositional diet estimates are produced that often contain many zeros. In order to test for a difference in diet between two populations of predators using the QFASA diet estimates, a legitimate measure of distance for use in the test statistic is necessary. Since ecologists using QFASA must first select the potential species of prey in the predator's diet, the chosen measure of distance should be such that the distance between samples does not decrease as the number of species considered increases, a property known in general as subcompositional coherence. In this paper we compare three measures of distance for compositional data capable of handling zeros, but not satisfying some of the well-accepted principles of compositional data analysis. For compositional diet estimates, the most relevant of these is the property of subcompositionally coherence and we show that this property may be approximately satisfied. Based on the results of a simulation study and an application to real-life QFASA diet estimates of grey seals, we recommend the chi-square measure of distance.     

Book Review

DNA Microarrays and Gene Expression: From Experiments to Data Analysis and Modeling, by Pierre Baldi and G. Wesley Hatfield, 2002, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom, 213?+?xvi pp., [ISBN: 0-521-80022-6]     

从农村基层民主制度运行成本看当前农民政治冷漠的根本原因

我国农村基层民主近年来在广度和深度上都得到了较大发展。但是,在这种发展的表象背后,却隐藏着农民政治冷漠的客观真象。对此,既有的"复合因果论"具有一定解释力,但也有值得补遗之处。农村基层民主制度运行成本与运行绩效的不对称、农民个体承担的基层民主制度运行成本过高才是导致当前农民政治冷漠的根本原因。