Detecting structural breaks in multivariate financial time series: evidence from hedge fund investment strategies

This paper extends the class of asset-based style factor models with multiple structural breaks to the multivariate setting. We propose a model that allows for the presence of common breaks in a system of factor models for individual hedge fund investment strategies, which share common investment characteristics. We develop a Bayesian approach to inference for the unknown number and positions of the structural breaks, based on a set of filtering recursions similar to those of the forward–backward algorithm. Furthermore, we identify relevant risk factors, common among the series of hedge funds, using a Bayesian model comparison approach. We apply our method to a set of correlated hedge fund strategies, which are mainly characterized by equity related bets. Multiple common breaks are identified, consistent with well-known market events, which reveal evidence for structural changes in the risk exposures as well as in the correlation structure of the analysed series.     

Group sequential x2 statistic for testing the difference of two mean vectors in clinical trials

In this study we discuss the group sequential procedures for comparing two treatments based on multivariate observations in clinical trials. Also we suppose that a response vector on each of two treatments has a multivariate normal distribution with unknown covariance matrix. Then we propose a group sequential x² statistic in order to carry out repeated significance test for hypothesis of no difference between two population mean vectors. In order to realize the group sequential test where average sample number is reduced, we propose another modified group sequential x² statistic by extension of Jennison and Turnbull ( 1991 ). After construction of repeated confidence boundaries for making the repeated significance test, we compare two group sequential procedures based on two statistics regarding the average sample number and the power of the test in the simulations.     

Multivariate regression analysis of panel data with binary outcomes applied to unemployment data

Summary  In panel studies binary outcome measures together with time stationary and time varying explanatory variables are collected over time on the same individual. Therefore, a regression analysis for this type of data must allow for the correlation among the outcomes of an individual. The multivariate probit model of Ashford and Sowden (1970) was the first regression model for multivariate binary responses. However, a likelihood analysis of the multivariate probit model with general correlation structure for higher dimensions is intractable due to the maximization over high dimensional integrals thus severely restricting ist applicability so far. Czado (1996) developed a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm to overcome this difficulty. In this paper we present an application of this algorithm to unemployment data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics involving 11 waves of the panel study. In addition we adapt Bayesian model checking techniques based on the posterior predictive distribution (see for example Gelman et al. (1996)) for the multivariate probit model. These help to identify mean and correlation specification which fit the data well. C. Czado was supported by research grant OGP0089858 of the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada.     

The exact noncentral distribution of the generalized multiple correlation matrix

Given p×n X N(βY, ∑?I), β, ∑ unknown, the noncentral multivariate beta density of the matrix L = [(YY′)^-1/2Y X′ (XX′)^-1XY′ (YY′)^-1/2] is desired. Khatri (1964) finds this density when β is of rank unity. The present paper derives the noncentral density of L and the density of the roots matrix of L for full rank β. The dual case density of L is also obtained. The derivations are based on generalized Sverdrup's lemma, Kabe (1965), and the relationship between primal and dual density of L is explicitly established.     

Influence analysis in multivariate linear general models

In this paper we obtain several influence measures for the multivariate linear general model through the approach proposed by Muñoz-Pichardo et al. (1995), which is based on the concept of conditional bias. An interesting charasteristic of this approach is that it does not require any distributional hypothesis. Appling the obtained results to the multivariate regression model, we obtain some measures proposed by other authors. Nevertheless, on the results obtained in this paper, we emphasize two aspects. First, they provide a theoretical foundation for measures proposed by other authors for the mul¬tivariate regression model. Second, they can be applied to any linear model that can be formulated as a particular case of the multivariate linear general model. In particular, we carry out an application to the multivariate analysis of covariance.     

A multivariate solution of the multivariate ranking and selection problem

The problem of selection of the best multivariate population is given a new formulation which does not involve reducing the populations to univariate quantities. This formulation's solution is developed for known, and (using the Heteroscedastic Method) also for unknown, variance-covariance matrices. Preference reversals and arbitrary nonlinear preference functions are explicitly allowed in this new theory     

Univaiuate anu multivariate categorical data analysis for block designs

Analysis for univariate and multivariate categorical data in block designs is given and illustrated through examples. The univariate analysis compares the treatments on the basis of their pooled frequency distributions (pooled over blocks). The test statistic used is called Q after Cochran (1950). The large sample null distribution of Q is a chi-square. Analysis of p-variate categorical data (kth variable having ck classes, K=1,...,p) can be done by treating it as a univariate categorical problem with [d] classes. Very often [d] is large in relation to the size of the experiment. This makes the expected frequencies for some of the cells very small, making the univariate method inapplicable. In these circumstances it may be reasonable to compare the treatments on the basis of marginal distributions up to the mth dimension, 1[d] , which is given in this paper. This method is also illustrated for missing observations     

Power of the Neyman Smooth Test for Evaluating Multivariate Forecast Densities

We compare and investigate Neyman's smooth test, its components, and the Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) goodness-of-fit test for testing the uniformity of multivariate forecast densities. Simulations indicate that the KS test lacks power when the forecast distributions are misspecified, especially for correlated sequences of random variables. Neyman's smooth test and its components work well in samples of size typically available, although there sometimes are size distortions. The components provide directed diagnosis regarding the kind of departure from the null. For illustration, the tests are applied to forecast densities obtained from a bivariate threshold model fitted to high-frequency financial data.     

Multivariate Life Testing in Variably Scaled Environments

This paper examines modeling and inference questions for experiments in which different subsets of a set of k possibly dependent components are tested in r different environments. In each environment, the failure times of the set of components on test is assumed to be governed by a particular type of multivariate exponential (MVE) distribution. For any given component tested in several environments, it is assumed that its marginal failure rate varies from one environment to another via a change of scale between the environments, resulting in a joint MVE model which links in a natural way the applicable MVE distributions describing component behavior in each fixed environment. This study thus extends the work of Proschan and Sullo (1976) to multiple environments and the work of Kvam and Samaniego (1993) to dependent data. The problem of estimating model parameters via the method of maximum likelihood is examined in detail. First, necessary and sufficient conditions for the identifiability of model parameters are established. We then treat the derivation of the MLE via a numerically-augmented application of the EM algorithm. The feasibility of the estimation method is demonstrated in an example in which the likelihood ratio test of the hypothesis of equal component failure rates within any given environment is carried out.     

Abscondence and duration of treatment of compulsorily committed alcoholics on a locked ward: effects of changes in the treatment program and the law

The study concerns 124 alcoholics compulsorily committed to a locked ward at Runnagården, a coercive treatment setting in mid-Sweden. Three groups are compared: 57 patients were admitted before and 29 were admitted after the implementation of an introductory Alcoholics Anonymous-oriented program on the ward. Another 38 patients were admitted after the changes in legislation, which resulted in a longer duration of compulsory care. The groups were compared as to the number of days spent on the locked unit and the number of times they absconded. With the implementation of the program, a significant reduction was observed in the time needed on the locked ward, while the number of abscondence incidents showed a weaker tendency to decrease. After the legislative changes were made, the same factors increased. Multivariate regression was used to check confounding background factors. In conclusion, the introduction of an Alcoholics Anonymous-oriented program in a coercive treatment setting reduced the time spent on a locked ward without increasing the number of times patients absconded. Increase in length of coercion increased both the time spent at the locked ward and the number of times absconded.