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121.
售后服务机构为了准确地准备库存,都需要预测产品的市场保有量。基于马尔可夫链建立的状态概率矩阵模型,与抽样调查、时间序列法、回归分析法等方法相比,更能准确预测市场产品保有量。与传统产品相比较,更新换代速度快的电子产品,要预测其市场保有量,更需要利用状态概率矩阵模型。 相似文献
122.
建筑节能激励政策的非对称博弈分析 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
本文探讨了建筑节能领域中政府与房地产商群体之间的非对称博弈问题,分析了该博弈所具有的模仿者动态模型、斯坦克尔伯格模型的特点,并构造了两者关于建筑节能激励政策的非对称博弈模型,最后对双方分别提出了博弈策略建议。 相似文献
123.
客运专线运营对区域经济的影响 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
铁路客运专线的运营将提高干线的客货运输能力,降低社会运输总成本,带动高新产业发展,节约旅行时间,带动第三产业的发展等.本文建立了数学模型,以秦沈客运专线为例进行了定量分析,为客运专线的规划提供参考依据. 相似文献
124.
Wing-Kam Fung Zhong-Yi Zhu Bo-Cheng Wei Xuming He 《Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series B, Statistical methodology》2002,64(3):565-579
Summary. Semiparametric mixed models are useful in biometric and econometric applications, especially for longitudinal data. Maximum penalized likelihood estimators (MPLEs) have been shown to work well by Zhang and co-workers for both linear coefficients and nonparametric functions. This paper considers the role of influence diagnostics in the MPLE by extending the case deletion and subject deletion analysis of linear models to accommodate the inclusion of a nonparametric component. We focus on influence measures for the fixed effects and provide formulae that are analogous to those for simpler models and readily computable with the MPLE algorithm. We also establish an equivalence between the case or subject deletion model and a mean shift outlier model from which we derive tests for outliers. The influence diagnostics proposed are illustrated through a longitudinal hormone study on progesterone and a simulated example. 相似文献
125.
Kepher Henry Makambi 《Statistical Methods and Applications》2002,11(1):127-138
The standard hypothesis testing procedure in meta-analysis (or multi-center clinical trials) in the absence of treatment-by-center
interaction relies on approximating the null distribution of the standard test statistic by a standard normal distribution.
For relatively small sample sizes, the standard procedure has been shown by various authors to have poor control of the type
I error probability, leading to too many liberal decisions. In this article, two test procedures are proposed, which rely
on thet—distribution as the reference distribution. A simulation study indicates that the proposed procedures attain significance
levels closer to the nominal level compared with the standard procedure. 相似文献
126.
Gaussian Markov random field (GMRF) models are commonly used to model spatial correlation in disease mapping applications. For Bayesian inference by MCMC, so far mainly single-site updating algorithms have been considered. However, convergence and mixing properties of such algorithms can be extremely poor due to strong dependencies of parameters in the posterior distribution. In this paper, we propose various block sampling algorithms in order to improve the MCMC performance. The methodology is rather general, allows for non-standard full conditionals, and can be applied in a modular fashion in a large number of different scenarios. For illustration we consider three different applications: two formulations for spatial modelling of a single disease (with and without additional unstructured parameters respectively), and one formulation for the joint analysis of two diseases. The results indicate that the largest benefits are obtained if parameters and the corresponding hyperparameter are updated jointly in one large block. Implementation of such block algorithms is relatively easy using methods for fast sampling of Gaussian Markov random fields ( Rue, 2001 ). By comparison, Monte Carlo estimates based on single-site updating can be rather misleading, even for very long runs. Our results may have wider relevance for efficient MCMC simulation in hierarchical models with Markov random field components. 相似文献
127.
Conditions for Non-confounding and Collapsibility without Knowledge of Completely Constructed Causal Diagrams 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
In this paper, we discuss several concepts in causal inference in terms of causal diagrams proposed by Pearl (1993 , 1995a , b ), and we give conditions for non-confounding, homogeneity and collapsibility for causal effects without knowledge of a completely constructed causal diagram. We first introduce the concepts of non-confounding, conditional non-confounding, uniform non-confounding, homogeneity, collapsibility and strong collapsibility for causal effects, then we present necessary and sufficient conditions for uniform non-confounding, homegeneity and collapsibilities, and finally we show sufficient conditions for non-confounding, conditional non-confounding and uniform non-confounding. 相似文献
128.
区域发展潜力的评价方法及其应用 总被引:18,自引:0,他引:18
阐述了区域可持续发展的涵义 ,并从系统的角度对区域可持续发展进行了分析 ,提出了区域发展潜力的概念。构建了区域发展潜力的评价模型。最后对H市的发展潜力进行了评价 相似文献
129.
根据动物遗传育种系列课程的结构、教学特点、本学科学生的层次性、学科发展和对教师多能性的要求 ,对该系列课程进行了教学内容、教学方式、教学手段的全面改革 ,构建了一套双螺旋循环教学模式 ,即教师与课程的螺旋循环链和学生层次与学习过程的螺旋循环链。这两条“教”、“学”互动的螺旋循环链有机结合 ,每完成一次循环教学过程 ,双螺旋上升一个螺距 ,教师的教学水平提高 ,学生的综合素质和学历提高一个层次。 相似文献
130.
谢桂芬 《宁波大学学报(人文科学版)》2002,15(4):90-93
多元化计量模式的现实思考——历史成本与公允价值择优并存@谢桂芬$宁波高等专科学校经管系!浙江宁波315010~~ 相似文献