小麦新品种“绵阳26”主要性状与产量的关系

对45个试验点的资料分析,多抗、丰产、优质、广适小麦新品种绵阳26的主要性状有效穗x1、穗粒数x2和千粒x3、单穗重x4与产量y的回归方程为：y＝－614．8425＋9.8683x1＋7.3223x2＋10．5315x3＋22．5748x4。经偏回归和偏相关分析,产量构成因素中,千粒重、有效穗对绵阳26产量的贡献和影响最大（b'3＝1．7435,b'1＝1．5372,R3y.＝0．7983,R1y＝0．6991）。在现有产量的基础上稳定千粒重,主攻穗数和穗粒数,是发挥绵阳26高产潜力的决定因素。     

Spatial variation in risk of disease: a nonparametric binary regression approach

A common problem in environmental epidemiology is the estimation and mapping of spatial variation in disease risk. In this paper we analyse data from the Walsall District Health Authority, UK, concerning the spatial distributions of cancer cases compared with controls sampled from the population register. We formulate the risk estimation problem as a nonparametric binary regression problem and consider two different methods of estimation. The first uses a standard kernel method with a cross-validation criterion for choosing the associated bandwidth parameter. The second uses the framework of the generalized additive model (GAM) which has the advantage that it can allow for additional explanatory variables, but is computationally more demanding. For the Walsall data, we obtain similar results using either the kernel method with controls stratified by age and sex to match the age–sex distribution of the cases or the GAM method with random controls but incorporating age and sex as additional explanatory variables. For cancers of the lung or stomach, the analysis shows highly statistically significant spatial variation in risk. For the less common cancers of the pancreas, the spatial variation in risk is not statistically significant.     

Application of Markov chain Monte Carlo methods to modelling birth prevalence of Down syndrome

Data collected before the routine application of prenatal screening are of unique value in estimating the natural live-birth prevalence of Down syndrome. However, much of these data are from births from over 20 years ago and they are of uncertain quality. In particular, they are subject to varying degrees of underascertainment. Published approaches have used ad hoc corrections to deal with this problem or have been restricted to data sets in which ascertainment is assumed to be complete. In this paper we adopt a Bayesian approach to modelling ascertainment and live-birth prevalence. We consider three prior specifications concerning ascertainment and compare predicted maternal-age-specific prevalence under these three different prior specifications. The computations are carried out by using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods in which model parameters and missing data are sampled.     

化学反应中的非线性现象

本文以“水中花园”和“化学振荡”等实验事实,论述了化学反应中的自然分形和自组织过程等非线性现象.     

基于GRPLS 回归的 中国经济增长影响因素分析

构造一种新的方法———岭- 偏最小二乘回归方法(它既有效消除了因素变量之间的多 重共线性,又克服了传统方法的不足,且使模型更加稳健,具有更强的预测和分析能力) ;并运 用广义岭- 偏最小二乘回归方法分析了我国经济增长的影响因素,为我国制订持续、快速增长 的经济政策提供了有益的参考.     

动力减振器最优参数的非线性回归和若干问题

本文采用最优化方法求得考虑生系统阻尼的动力减振器最优参数集，并对此参数集进行非线性回归，得到了便于动力减振器最优设计的回归曲线族。本文还对现有的主系统无阻尼时动力减振器最优参数公式进行了讨论，指出了这些公式的局限性，并根据本文的结果给出了应用范围更广泛的改进公式。     

Two phase parametric and probabilistic NPV calculations, with possible deferral of disposal of UK nuclear waste as an example

This paper illustrates the value of several particular features of a first phase parametric approach to discounted cash flow (DCF) decision analysis when significant uncertainty is involved. It also illustrates the value of second phase probabilistic approaches to selected parameters for five quite different example reasons. The most controversial example reason concerns the discount rate. The particular example used to illustrate both phases may stimulate general interest because of the important issues involved, but it is argued that the two phase approach as a whole has a wide range of applications for decisions large and small.     

不同模型在财务预警实证中的比较研究

研究当前国内外公司财务困境预测问题的现状,寻找一套适合于我国企业的财务状况识别指标体系;然后依据该指标体系采用不同方法建立财务状况预测模型;最后,利用样本公司实际指标数据对各个模型的短期及中期预测效果进行了比较分析与实证研究。     

交易额、A 股比例、势效应和三因子模型

利用回归和构造动态投资组合方法,对中国股票市场1995 年7 月到2000 年12 月股票 月收益率、交易额、总市值及其财务数据进行分析,发现中国股票市场具有显著的交易额效应、 A 股比例效应、市值效应、账面市值比效应等. 这些效应有密切的相互关系,但不能用市场beta 值来解释. 市场beta 值、市值因子、账面市值比因子一起,也就是Fama2French 三因子模型,可以 很好地解释这些效应     

儒家非理性教育理念对当代思想政治教育的启示

儒家非理性教育运用天人合一的思想理念,将人心对外物的自然反映融入到诗、礼、乐教育活动中,从而熏陶人的积极正面的情感,使人的意志和动机朝向符合道德的方向被激发,最终使人在现实生活中能自发自觉地表现出《论语》等儒家经典所要求的道德行为和品质.儒家非理性教育理念将人心、道德与治国三者完美结合,对当代思想政治教育贯彻立德树人理念有重要的启发作用.