ESTIMATION OF PARAMETERS IN ARFIMA PROCESSES: A SIMULATION STUDY

It is known that, in the presence of short memory components, the estimation of the fractional parameter d in an Autoregressive Fractionally Integrated Moving Average, ARFIMA(p, d, q), process has some difficulties (see [1] Smith, J., Taylor, N. and Yadav, S. 1997. Comparing the bias and misspecification in ARFIMA models. Journal of Time Series Analysis, 18(5): 507–527. [Crossref] , [Google Scholar]). In this paper, we continue the efforts made by Smith et al. [1] Smith, J., Taylor, N. and Yadav, S. 1997. Comparing the bias and misspecification in ARFIMA models. Journal of Time Series Analysis, 18(5): 507–527. [Crossref] , [Google Scholar] and Beveridge and Oickle [2] Beveridge, S. and Oickle, C. 1993. Estimating fractionally integrated time series models. Economics Letters, 43: 137–142.  [Google Scholar] by conducting a simulation study to evaluate the convergence properties of the iterative estimation procedure suggested by Hosking [3] Hosking, J. 1981. Fractional differencing. Biometrika, 68(1): 165–176. [Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]. In this context we consider some semiparametric approaches and a parametric method proposed by Fox-Taqqu[4] Fox, R. and Taqqu, M. S. 1986. Large-sample properties of parameter estimates for strongly dependent stationary gaussian time series. The Annals of Statistics, 14(2): 517–532. [Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]. We also investigate the method proposed by Robinson [5] Robinson, P. M. 1995a. Log-periodogram regression of time series with long range dependence. The Annals of Statistics, 23(3): 1048–1072. [Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar] and a modification using the smoothed periodogram function.     

AN IMPROVED COMPOUND ESTIMATOR FOR ROBUST REGRESSION

ABSTRACT

Advances in statistical computing software have led to a substantial increase in the use of ordinary least squares (OLS) regression models in the engineering and applied statistics communities. Empirical evidence suggests that data sets can routinely have 10% or more outliers in many processes. Unfortunately, these outliers typically will render the OLS parameter estimates useless. The OLS diagnostic quantities and graphical plots can reliably identify a few outliers; however, they significantly lose power with increasing dimension and number of outliers. Although there have been recent advances in the methods that detect multiple outliers, improvements are needed in regression estimators that can fit well in the presence of outliers. We introduce a robust regression estimator that performs well regardless of outlier quantity and configuration. Our studies show that the best available estimators are vulnerable when the outliers are extreme in the regressor space (high leverage). Our proposed compound estimator modifies recently published methods with an improved initial estimate and measure of leverage. Extensive performance evaluations indicate that the proposed estimator performs the best and consistently fits the bulk of the data when outliers are present. The estimator, implemented in standard software, provides researchers and practitioners a tool for the model-building process to protect against the severe impact from multiple outliers.     

VARIANCE ESTIMATION IN NONPARAMETRIC MULTIPLE REGRESSION

ABSTRACT

We consider the variance estimation in a general nonparametric regression model with multiple covariates. We extend difference methods to the multivariate setting by introducing an algorithm that orders the design points in higher dimensions. We also consider an adaptive difference estimator which requires much less strict assumptions on the covariate design and can significantly reduce mean squared error for small sample sizes.     

Diagnosis of Multivariate Control Chart Signal Based on Dummy Variable Regression Technique

Abstract

It is common to monitor several correlated quality characteristics using the Hotelling's T ² statistic. However, T ² confounds the location shift with scale shift and consequently it is often difficult to determine the factors responsible for out of control signal in terms of the process mean vector and/or process covariance matrix. In this paper, we propose a diagnostic procedure called ‘D-technique’ to detect the nature of shift. For this purpose, two sets of regression equations, each consisting of regression of a variable on the remaining variables, are used to characterize the ‘structure’ of the ‘in control’ process and that of ‘current’ process. To determine the sources responsible for an out of control state, it is shown that it is enough to compare these two structures using the dummy variable multiple regression equation. The proposed method is operationally simpler and computationally advantageous over existing diagnostic tools. The technique is illustrated with various examples.     

Multiple Linear Regression Model Under Nonnormality

Abstract

We consider multiple linear regression models under nonnormality. We derive modified maximum likelihood estimators (MMLEs) of the parameters and show that they are efficient and robust. We show that the least squares esimators are considerably less efficient. We compare the efficiencies of the MMLEs and the M estimators for symmetric distributions and show that, for plausible alternatives to an assumed distribution, the former are more efficient. We provide real-life examples.     

Ridge regression estimators in the linear regression models with non-spherical errors

The present paper considers a family of ordinary ridge regression estimators in the linear regression model when the disturbances covariance matrix depends upon a few unknown parameters. An asymptotic expansion for the distribution of the ridge regression estimator is developed and under the quadratic loss function its asymptotic risk is compared with that of the feasible GLS estimator.     

Distribution and density functions of the feasible generalized ridge regression estimator

In this paper, we derive the distribution and density functions of the feasible generalized ridge regression (GRR) estimator. It is shown that when the absolute value of a regression coefficient is close to zero, the distribution of the feasible GRR estimator is bimodal and has thinner tails than that of the OLS estimator.     

A plug-in technique in nonparametric regression with dependence

The problem addressed is that of smoothing parameter selection in kernel nonparametric regression in the fixed design regression model with dependent noise. An asymptotic expression of the optimum bandwidth parameter has been obtained in recent studies, where this takes the form h = C ₀ n ^?1/5. This paper proposes to use a plug-in methodology, in order to obtain an optimum estimation of the bandwidth parameter, through preliminary estimation of the unknown value of C ₀.     

Time series count data regression

The count data model studied in the paper extends the Poisson model by al-lowing for overdispersion and serial correlation. Alternative approaches to esti-mate nuisance parameters, required for the correction of the Poisson maximum likelihood covariance matrix estimator and for a quasi-likelihood estimator, are studied. The estimators are evaluated by finite sample Monte Carlo experi-mentation. It is found that the Poisson maximum likelihood estimator with corrected covariance matrix estimators provide reliable inferences for longer time series. Overdispersion test statistics are wellbehaved, while conventional portmanteau statistics for white noise have too large sizes. Two empirical illustrations are included.     

On the level probabilities for useful partially ordered alternatives in the analysis of variance

In the analysis of variance, we often encounter situations in which we want to test the null hypothesis of homogeneity of the normal means against various partially ordered alternative hypotheses. We study likelihood ratio tests for three useful types of alternatives: d-star, bipartite and broom tree. Especially, we give computational formulas for the level probabilities of the alternative types. The results permit us to obtain critical values for practical use.