Local influence diagnostics for incomplete overdispersed longitudinal counts

We develop local influence diagnostics to detect influential subjects when generalized linear mixed models are fitted to incomplete longitudinal overdispersed count data. The focus is on the influence stemming from the dropout model specification. In particular, the effect of small perturbations around an MAR specification are examined. The method is applied to data from a longitudinal clinical trial in epileptic patients. The effect on models allowing for overdispersion is contrasted with that on models that do not.     

Combining Inverse Probability Weighting and Multiple Imputation to Improve Robustness of Estimation

Inverse probability weighting (IPW) and multiple imputation are two widely adopted approaches dealing with missing data. The former models the selection probability, and the latter models data distribution. Consistent estimation requires correct specification of corresponding models. Although the augmented IPW method provides an extra layer of protection on consistency, it is usually not sufficient in practice as the true data‐generating process is unknown. This paper proposes a method combining the two approaches in the same spirit of calibration in sampling survey literature. Multiple models for both the selection probability and data distribution can be simultaneously accounted for, and the resulting estimator is consistent if any model is correctly specified. The proposed method is within the framework of estimating equations and is general enough to cover regression analysis with missing outcomes and/or missing covariates. Results on both theoretical and numerical investigation are provided.     

魏晋六朝“自然”论文学观的确立——论《文心雕龙》的“文道自然”观

以"自然"论文学,汉朝<淮南子>已有记载,但只言片语,语焉不详,直到魏晋鸿篇<文心雕龙>才有了真正意义上的"自然"论文学观.刘勰以"自然之道"来阐释文学创作的根本原则,从哲学本体论高度论证"文"之产生与存在的必然性、"文"与"质"的本质统一关系,并以此为核心探讨了文学创作之发生、文学风格之生成、创作自由之实现等一系列重要问题,建立了相当系统化的"文道自然"观.     

理性极限及其突破断想

思维具有历史的特征.而理性思维只是人类思维的一个阶段.因此,理性思维及与之相对应的理性哲学都无法超越自身的历史局限.理性哲学缺失与当下生活的对应的根本原因就在于理性极限.而理性的偏见与虚妄的悲剧价值预设正是这种极限的表现.打破理性极限的前提是将理性还原于历史中并具体列出突破理性哲学的叙述方案.     

先秦汉魏亲情诗初探

作为中国古代亲情诗的源头,《诗经》在主题意境、典故语汇、表现方式等方面对后世亲情诗产生了深远影响。汉魏时期的亲情诗,无论在数量上还是质量上,都达到了很高的水平,先秦已具雏形的思妇诗、闺怨诗、悼亡诗,在这一时期也确立了各自的类型特点以及在诗歌史上的地位。在表现手法和技巧方面,汉魏亲情诗学习了《诗经》复沓迭章、比兴等手法和《楚辞》的寄托方式,写景托情,情景交融,很好地表现了主题和感情。可以说,经过汉魏时期,亲情诗在表现人伦亲情方面已经具备了自己的特点,形成了较为多样的风格和题材(主题),成为独立的诗歌类型,从而迎来了是中国亲情诗发展史上的第一个高峰期。     

董小宛入宫说始于何时——兼略探吴梅村《清凉山赞佛诗》的创作意图

董小宛入宫说始于清末之见不确,仅仅一部《红楼梦》就能证明早在乾隆年间即存在董小宛入宫说,而导致此说产生、传播的,则当是对顺治末年吴梅村《清凉山赞佛诗》的误解。     

论高校教师的职业倦怠

不同个体、不同类型的职业倦怠其产生原因各不相同,归结起来,高校教师产生职业倦怠的主要原因有四个:学术权利和行政权利的不均衡;高校教师职称评聘、业绩考核制度存在弊端;高校教师录用和选聘过程缺乏有力的人才测评以及社会对高校教师报赏的失衡。因此,缓解和克服高校教师的职业倦怠也要从这几个方面考虑。     

Accurate estimation for extra-Poisson variability assuming random effect models

In this study, the components of extra-Poisson variability are estimated assuming random effect models under a Bayesian approach. A standard existing methodology to estimate extra-Poisson variability assumes a negative binomial distribution. The obtained results show that using the proposed random effect model it is possible to get more accurate estimates for the extra-Poisson variability components when compared to the use of a negative binomial distribution where it is possible to estimate only one component of extra-Poisson variability. Some illustrative examples are introduced considering real data sets.     

于京君的室内乐配器《图画展览会》之"漫步"分析

2002年6月26日,澳籍华人于京军所改编的室内乐《图画展览会》由澳大利亚室内乐团在悉尼歌剧院首演,获得成功。本文对其中的“漫步”主题配器进行分析。于京军先生的“漫步”主题用中提琴抒发个人感受,应用“音色旋律”的方法,制造“踏板”效果,采用拼贴手段细致地、准确地表现一个中国人对“漫步”主题音乐内容的理解,使人产生耳目一新的感觉。分析于京君在第一次出现的“漫步主题”中的室内乐配器,能使我们得到有益启示。