Ranking and estimation of related means in two—way models—a Bayesian approach

A hierarchical Bayesian approach to ranking and selection as well as estimation of related means in two—way models is considered. Using the method of Monte Carlo simulation with importance sampling, we are able to carry out efficiently the three or four dimensional integrations as needed. An example is included to illustrate the methodology.     

The German Administrative Record Census – An object identification problem

Summary: The next German census will be an Administrative Record Census. Data from several administrative registers about persons will be merged. Object identification has to be applied, since no unique identification number exists in the registers. We present a two–step procedure. We briefly discuss questions like correctness and completeness of the Administrative Record Census. Then we focus on the object identification problem, that can be perceived as a special classification problem. Pairs of records are to be classified as matched or not matched. To achieve computational efficiency a preselection technique of pairs is applied. Our approach is illustrated with a database containing a large set of consumer addresses.*This work was partially supported by the Berlin–Brandenburg Graduate School in Distributed Information Systems (DFG grant no. GRK 316). The authors thank Michael Fürnrohr for previewing the paper. We would like to thank also for the helpful comments of an anonymous reviewer.     

Some applications of nonlinear and non-Gaussian state–space modelling by means of hidden Markov models

Nonlinear and non-Gaussian state–space models (SSMs) are fitted to different types of time series. The applications include homogeneous and seasonal time series, in particular earthquake counts, polio counts, rainfall occurrence data, glacial varve data and daily returns on a share. The considered SSMs comprise Poisson, Bernoulli, gamma and Student-t distributions at the observation level. Parameter estimations for the SSMs are carried out using a likelihood approximation that is obtained after discretization of the state space. The approximation can be made arbitrarily accurate, and the approximated likelihood is precisely that of a finite-state hidden Markov model (HMM). The proposed method enables us to apply standard HMM techniques. It is easy to implement and can be extended to all kinds of SSMs in a straightforward manner.     

广东省基本医疗保障制度实施现状实证研究

基本医疗保障制度在满足人民日益增长的医疗卫生需求、改善民生、促进和谐社会的构建等方面具有极其重要的意义。目前广东已步入全民医保阶段,基本医保制度已逐步建立,保障水平稳步提高,省内多个地区因地制宜进行制度创新,医保城乡一体化稳步推进。然而,基本医保制度的实施仍存在不足,如:公众满意度水平不高、参保人医保认知度有待提高、卫生资源配置不平衡的现象等。对此,政府应当发挥主导作用,强化宣传效力,公平高效配置卫生资源,积极推进城乡一体化进程。     

基于整合观下的微格教学

课程改革对教师的教育实践能力提出了新要求,微格教学作为培养职前教师教育技能的一种手段,受限于人们对教育的理解。因此,传统的微格教学需要反思和重构。微格教学在发展过程中经历了行为主义、信息加工、建构主义等不同的教学理论的影响,因此需要结合各种理念的长处来构思与实践微格教学,使得整合观下的微格教学,能够兼顾教学知识、教学行为与反省创新能力的发展。     

流动人口社会距离测量及其影响因素分析——以苏浙沪为例

以布尔迪厄的"惯习"概念为基础,认为社会距离是流动人口在流入地具体社会生活中体验到的一种身体化的社会结构。在此基础上建立起流动人口社会距离指数,对苏浙沪三地流动人口社会距离及其影响因素进行比较分析。结果表明:上海流动人口社会距离最小,江苏次之,浙江最大;住房性质、流入时间和社会交往网络等因素影响较大,同时制度性因素的影响仍然不可忽视。     

欧盟法的一体化之维:基础、协调及秩序运作

欧盟法一体化的实现,有赖于产生它的基础性条约、与成员国权能的协调以及所处法系法律秩序的运作实践。通过对欧盟法一体化的条约基础、权能配置以及法律秩序运行等不同维度的考察及分析,可以看出欧盟法在实现一体化过程中具备的求"同"存"异"的协调、沟通之能,同时亦为中国参与区域经济一体化活动提供了借鉴和参考。     

京津冀协同发展下的石家庄市园区建设研究

京津冀协同发展作为重大国家战略,目前已经从科技、卫生、海关、交通和污染防治等多层面展开深入合作,但实质上的水乳交融式的推进关键在于形成上下游产业链。因此,石家庄市必须牢牢扭住园区经济这个京津冀产业协作的重要载体和平台,从构建区域经济联动发展机制、创新园区管理体制机制、发展特色产业集群式园区等入手,构筑区域经济协同发展＂强引擎＂。     

永明延寿与吴越佛教

五代吴越国高僧永明延寿是唐宋之际中国佛教转型时期的重要人物,其思想与事迹对吴越佛教乃至中国佛教都产生了极为重要的影响.通过考订永明延寿的有关生平史料,择取其一生中具有代表性的西湖"官钱放生"、天台习禅与课诵<法华经>、与钱王之密切交往等事件及其融合会通的思想主张,以文化人类学的方法及视角进行分析,可以了解永明延寿与吴越佛教文化之间的相互影响.     

以人为本的创新资源整合观辨析

基于不同的发展观,会形成创新资源整合的不同思路和不同的制度安排。从科学发展观出发,创新资源的整合必须坚持“以人为本”。在澄清“以人为本的创新资源整合”概念的基础上,学习和落实科学发展观,并提出了从以下四个维度加以理解:创新资源整合的根本目的是促进人的全面发展,创新资源整合的首要原则是坚持人文的价值取向,创新资源整合的实质问题是协调人的利益关系,创新资源整合的基本前提是提高人的素质。