A stepwise discrete variable selection procedure

A stepwise variable selection procedure for multinomial discrimination is presented and discussed. Based upon the work of Kullback and Hills, stopping rules are proposed and illustrated for a set of data on communication buyer behavior.     

Csiszar’s ϕ-divergences for testing the order in a Markov chain

x ₁, ..., x _n+r can be treated as the sample values of a Markov chain of order r or less (chain in which the dependence extends over r+1 consecutive variables only), and consider the problem of testing the hypothesis H ₀ that a chain of order r− 1 will be sufficient on the basis of the tools given by the Statistical Information Theory: _ϕ-Divergences. More precisely, if p _{a 1 ....., a r}: _{a r +1} denotes the transition probability for a r ^th order Markov chain, the hypothesis to be tested is H ₀:p _{a 1 ....., a r}: _{a r +1} = p _{a 2 ....., a r}: _{a r +1}, a _i ∈{1, ..., s}, i = 1, ..., r + 1 The tests given in this paper, for the first time, will have as a particular case the likelihood ratio test and the test based on the chi-squared statistic. Received: August 3, 1998; revised version: November 25, 1999     

从能量动量张量T~(ab)讨论熵四矢的散度

为了讨论黑洞的熵结构，本文从能动张量Tab推导出理想流体熵四矢的四维散度特性，其结果散度为零．     

Bayesian Binomial Regression: Predicting Survival at a Trauma Center

Standard methods for analyzing binomial regression data rely on asymptotic inferences. Bayesian methods can be performed using simple computations, and they apply for any sample size. We provide a relatively complete discussion of Bayesian inferences for binomial regression with emphasis on inferences for the probability of “success.” Furthermore, we illustrate diagnostic tools, perform model selection among nonnested models, and examine the sensitivity of the Bayesian methods.     

鲁迅与嵇康的精神契合和位移

鲁迅和嵇康在精神特质上的相似 ,已为鲁迅研究者所注视 ,但其剖析似乎不够翔备。该文通过三个方面 ,即思想的“承传”与“化解”、现实的“挣扎”和“反抗”以及精神的“绝望”和“希望” ,对两位文化奇人作了比较     

关于齐次马氏信源二元函数的一类偏差定理

利用任意信源相对熵密度偏差的概念,使用分析的方法研究了齐次马氏信源的一类强偏差定理,得出了一个二元函数的一类强偏差定理和几个极限性质.     

中国大众文化理论内涵的检讨

目前中国的大众文化研究正方兴未艾。但理论探讨中一些主要概念,如"大众文化"、"大众的文化"以及对 大众文化的定性定位,都存在着重大分歧。这是亟须厘清和辨析的问题。     

Non parametric portmanteau tests for detecting non linearities in high dimensions

ABSTRACT

We propose two non parametric portmanteau test statistics for serial dependence in high dimensions using the correlation integral. One test depends on a cutoff threshold value, while the other test is freed of this dependence. Although these tests may each be viewed as variants of the classical Brock, Dechert, and Scheinkman (BDS) test statistic, they avoid some of the major weaknesses of this test. We establish consistency and asymptotic normality of both portmanteau tests. Using Monte Carlo simulations, we investigate the small sample properties of the tests for a variety of data generating processes with normally and uniformly distributed innovations. We show that asymptotic theory provides accurate inference in finite samples and for relatively high dimensions. This is followed by a power comparison with the BDS test, and with several rank-based extensions of the BDS tests that have recently been proposed in the literature. Two real data examples are provided to illustrate the use of the test procedure.     

Consistency of information criteria for model selection with missing data

ABSTRACT

In this paper, we investigate the consistency of the Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm-based information criteria for model selection with missing data. The criteria correspond to a penalization of the conditional expectation of the complete data log-likelihood given the observed data and with respect to the missing data conditional density. We present asymptotic properties related to maximum likelihood estimation in the presence of incomplete data and we provide sufficient conditions for the consistency of model selection by minimizing the information criteria. Their finite sample performance is illustrated through simulation and real data studies.