假释制度优化路径之设想——以矫正激励功能为导向

在一个行刑社会化、国家·社会双本位的犯罪控制模式下,以矫正激励功能为导向,将现代激励理论应用于假释制度是优化和完善假释制度的实然之路。具体应以需要理论为出发点,改善传统的刑罚执行理念;以期望理论为关节点,构建行政激励机制与刑事激励机制的沟通桥梁;以目标管理理论为框架,科学配置层次合理、富于人性化的假释方式;以公平理论为核心,着力优化审理机制;以强化理论为维度,开展假释的善后激励工作。     

典籍英译的关联理论解读

随着跨文化交际的不断深化以及中国地位的不断提高,越来越多的中国作品被译成外语。典籍英译便是这种译介活动的一种,旨在将中国的典籍作品翻译成英文,以弘扬中国文化。关联翻译理论认为,译者在翻译过程中需要进行明示——推理的过程,进而找到最佳关联并形成译文。因此,在关联理论视角下,译者在典籍英译的过程中,需要正确理解原文,寻找最佳关联并形成正确的译文。     

Individual and Household Values of Mortality Reductions with Intrahousehold Bargaining

I derive alternative measures of maximum willingness to pay (WTP) and value of statistical life (VSL) for selfish members of two-person households who bargain efficiently over consumption of individual and household goods. There is then no systematic bias in letting one member conduct the valuation on behalf of the household. Public-good VSL may exceed private-good VSL when each member attaches (selfish) preferences to survival of the spouse, and to any income from a surviving spouse in period 2. When period 2 is a retirement period and household members’ incomes are fixed, interview surveys tend to overvalue VSL due to ignored negative effects of own survival on private of public pension budgets.JEL Classification: I12, G22, J17     

沪深300股指期货套期保值效率度量研究--基于沪深300 ETF的实证分析

基于沪深300股指期货真实交易数据,选取对指数拟合程度高且可交易的沪深300ETF为现货研究对象,运用静态套期保值比率估计模型（OLS、B-VAR、VECM）和动态套期保值比率估计模型（VECM-BGARCH、DBEKK-GARCH、DCC-GARCH、NormCopula-GARCH、tCopula-GARCH）对最优套期保值比率进行估计,并对规避风险效果进行比较。结果表明：无论在样本内期间和样本外期间中,各模型反映出的沪深300股指期货套期保值效率都较高,考虑期货与现货市场动态相关性的NormCopula-GARCH 模型套期保值效果最优。     

基于能源优化配置的我国第二产业结构调整研究简

针对我国面临的日益严峻的能源与经济发展的矛盾,从能源优化配置的角度出发,探讨了能源约束条件下第二产业的结构调整以实现经济可持续发展的问题。具体研究思路是从我国第二产业的投入产出表入手,计算各行业的感应度系数和影响力系数,并与万元GDP能耗进行多角度聚类,进而运用聚类分析的结果,结合经济可持续发展背景下我国第二产业结构的调整需求及各产业的实际发展状况,阐述了不同产业能源配置的配额、定额及价格策略及政策建议。     

提高退休年龄与降低替代率：城镇职工基本养老金的财政支出研究

目前，中国法定退体年龄与最优退休年龄存在不同步的现象，所建最优退休年龄经济模型的结果表明人口死亡概率与最优退休年龄的动态经济规律。按照这个规律，中国目前应提高退休年龄。但通过对城镇职工的年龄预测及对其赡养率和缴费率的敏感性分析，笔者认为解决目前财政压力的关键是适当降低养老金替代率，而提高退休年龄应运步推行。     

Maximum entropy sampling and optimal Bayesian experimental design

When Shannon entropy is used as a criterion in the optimal design of experiments, advantage can be taken of the classical identity representing the joint entropy of parameters and observations as the sum of the marginal entropy of the observations and the preposterior conditional entropy of the parameters. Following previous work in which this idea was used in spatial sampling, the method is applied to standard parameterized Bayesian optimal experimental design. Under suitable conditions, which include non-linear as well as linear regression models, it is shown in a few steps that maximizing the marginal entropy of the sample is equivalent to minimizing the preposterior entropy, the usual Bayesian criterion, thus avoiding the use of conditional distributions. It is shown using this marginal formulation that under normality assumptions every standard model which has a two-point prior distribution on the parameters gives an optimal design supported on a single point. Other results include a new asymptotic formula which applies as the error variance is large and bounds on support size.     

A new estimator of entropy

Vasicek (1976) proposed an estimator of entropy based on spacings. A new estimator of entropy is proposed. This new estimator is based on local linear regression. Comparisons between this new estimator and Vasicek's estimator are made. The mean square error (MSE) of the new estimator is consistently smaller than the MSE of Vasicek's estimator.     

Estimation of regression models with equi-correlated responses when some observations on the response variable are missing

The present article deals with the problem of estimation of parameters in a linear regression model when some data on response variable is missing and the responses are equi-correlated. The ordinary least squares and optimal homogeneous predictors are employed to find the imputed values of missing observations. Their efficiency properties are analyzed using the small disturbances asymptotic theory. The estimation of regression coefficients using these imputed values is also considered and a comparison of estimators is presented.     

试论中国劳动力市场化的问题与解决办法

中国劳动力市场化并不充分,低端劳动力进入市场存在素质障碍和信息障碍,高端劳动力进入市场存在政策障碍。解决这些问题,一是要求劳动力市场重心下移,让市场走近广大农村,便于低端劳动力低成本地进入劳动力市场并促其有序流动;二是建立全国统一的社会福利保障体系,从政策上打破人才单位所有制,促使高端劳动力在全国范围内优化配置,同时这一体系也有助于巩固农村剩余劳动力转移的成果,激发广大低端劳动力参与市场经济的活力。