西汉赋家的个体性生命焦虑

个体性生命焦虑是西汉赋家比较浓郁的生命意识。它较集中地体现于骚体赋和拟骚赋中。可以说,西汉赋家继承先秦时代的人文精神,并结合新时代对士人话语自由及人格自由的限制与剥夺,将屈原的楚骚精神进一步发扬光大,对后世文学关注生命具有深远影响。     

投敌叛变罪若干疑难问题研讨

投敌叛变罪作为危害国家安全的一种重罪,刑法学界的研究状况相对较为薄弱,为此应立足于刑法规定,并紧密结合司法实践,对投敌叛变罪的本质属性、客观表现、罪过形式、罪数形态、犯罪形态及其死刑适用等几个重大疑难问题进行较为深入的研究。     

我国网络金融的发展现状与监管思路

继金融深化、金融自由化、金融国际化之后,金融网络化的问题再次成为关注的焦点。本文回顾了网络金融的发展态势及其可能对传统金融产业产生的深刻影响,对我国网络金融在发展过程中存在的主要问题进行了深入分析,在此基础上对如何加强金融监管以促进我国网络金融的健康发展提出了积极的对策建议。     

Type I error rates from likelihood‐based repeated measures analyses of incomplete longitudinal data

The last observation carried forward (LOCF) approach is commonly utilized to handle missing values in the primary analysis of clinical trials. However, recent evidence suggests that likelihood‐based analyses developed under the missing at random (MAR) framework are sensible alternatives. The objective of this study was to assess the Type I error rates from a likelihood‐based MAR approach – mixed‐model repeated measures (MMRM) – compared with LOCF when estimating treatment contrasts for mean change from baseline to endpoint (Δ). Data emulating neuropsychiatric clinical trials were simulated in a 4 × 4 factorial arrangement of scenarios, using four patterns of mean changes over time and four strategies for deleting data to generate subject dropout via an MAR mechanism. In data with no dropout, estimates of Δ and SE_Δ from MMRM and LOCF were identical. In data with dropout, the Type I error rates (averaged across all scenarios) for MMRM and LOCF were 5.49% and 16.76%, respectively. In 11 of the 16 scenarios, the Type I error rate from MMRM was at least 1.00% closer to the expected rate of 5.00% than the corresponding rate from LOCF. In no scenario did LOCF yield a Type I error rate that was at least 1.00% closer to the expected rate than the corresponding rate from MMRM. The average estimate of SE_Δ from MMRM was greater in data with dropout than in complete data, whereas the average estimate of SE_Δ from LOCF was smaller in data with dropout than in complete data, suggesting that standard errors from MMRM better reflected the uncertainty in the data. The results from this investigation support those from previous studies, which found that MMRM provided reasonable control of Type I error even in the presence of MNAR missingness. No universally best approach to analysis of longitudinal data exists. However, likelihood‐based MAR approaches have been shown to perform well in a variety of situations and are a sensible alternative to the LOCF approach. MNAR methods can be used within a sensitivity analysis framework to test the potential presence and impact of MNAR data, thereby assessing robustness of results from an MAR method. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The potential of integrated modelling in conservation biology: A case study of the black‐footed albatross (Phoebastria nigripes)

Conservation biology aims at assessing the status of a population, based on information which is often incomplete. Integrated population modelling based on state‐space models appears to be a powerful and relevant way of combining into a single likelihood several types of information such as capture‐recapture data and population surveys. In this paper, the authors describe the principles of integrated population modelling and they evaluate its performance for conservation biology based on a case study, that of the black‐footed albatross, a northern Pacific albatross species suspected to be impacted by longline fishing     

《红星照耀中国》中的“红色中国”

埃德加.斯诺进入苏区后,"红色"在其个人词库中的语义内涵发生了很大转变。这一点直接反映在《红星照耀中国》一书中"红色中国"形象的形成与变化过程上。对这一个案的研究,将充分展现"前理解"和词汇语义弹性在形象建构过程中的复杂作用。     

Parent‐Adolescent Communication About Sex: Retrospective Reports by Latino College Students

Latina female (n= 97) and Latino male (n= 69) college students (M age = 21.4 years) completed self‐report surveys regarding family of origin experiences, including sexual communication with parents while growing up. Latino parents of this comparatively highly educated sample tended to use direct rather than indirect strategies for communicating about sexuality with their children. Young women reported higher levels of sexual communication with mothers while growing up than did young men, and respondents reported less communication with fathers than mothers. Among young women, sexual communication with mother was positively associated with non‐Mexican origin and negatively associated with having older brothers living at home. In contrast, maternal education was positively associated with mother‐son communication about sex. Paternal education and the absence of older brothers positively predicted communication with both sons and daughters. The analyses provide novel information regarding sexual communication in Latino families and suggest directions for future research.     

Choice of the primary analysis in longitudinal clinical trials

Missing data, and the bias they can cause, are an almost ever‐present concern in clinical trials. The last observation carried forward (LOCF) approach has been frequently utilized to handle missing data in clinical trials, and is often specified in conjunction with analysis of variance (LOCF ANOVA) for the primary analysis. Considerable advances in statistical methodology, and in our ability to implement these methods, have been made in recent years. Likelihood‐based, mixed‐effects model approaches implemented under the missing at random (MAR) framework are now easy to implement, and are commonly used to analyse clinical trial data. Furthermore, such approaches are more robust to the biases from missing data, and provide better control of Type I and Type II errors than LOCF ANOVA. Empirical research and analytic proof have demonstrated that the behaviour of LOCF is uncertain, and in many situations it has not been conservative. Using LOCF as a composite measure of safety, tolerability and efficacy can lead to erroneous conclusions regarding the effectiveness of a drug. This approach also violates the fundamental basis of statistics as it involves testing an outcome that is not a physical parameter of the population, but rather a quantity that can be influenced by investigator behaviour, trial design, etc. Practice should shift away from using LOCF ANOVA as the primary analysis and focus on likelihood‐based, mixed‐effects model approaches developed under the MAR framework, with missing not at random methods used to assess robustness of the primary analysis. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

“关关”新解

春秋时的《诗经》是我国最早的一部诗歌总集,其中《关雎》一诗是中外驰名的名诗魁首。对诗中“关关雎鸠”中的“关关”之注释,历来都遵循郑玄的注解。文章从几个方面对此进行考证,发现《诗经》中用象声词模拟鸟鸣叫的句式都和“鸣”字相连;雎鸠无论是那一种鸟,都不可能发出“关关”的叫声;“关关雎鸠”和“淑女采荇”一样,采用的都是比兴的手法。因而认为“关关”是动词重叠连用,说的是先人利用“鸟媒”的一种捕猎方式。这种利用鸟媒的形式表达爱情在民歌中仍得到体现。     

Marginal and association regression models for longitudinal binary data with drop‐outs: A likelihood‐based approach

Longitudinal data often contain missing observations, and it is in general difficult to justify particular missing data mechanisms, whether random or not, that may be hard to distinguish. The authors describe a likelihood‐based approach to estimating both the mean response and association parameters for longitudinal binary data with drop‐outs. They specify marginal and dependence structures as regression models which link the responses to the covariates. They illustrate their approach using a data set from the Waterloo Smoking Prevention Project They also report the results of simulation studies carried out to assess the performance of their technique under various circumstances.