中国发展太空旅游的对策与立法建议

嫦娥一号绕月探测飞行激发了中国人对太空旅游的热情，太空旅游由神话变成了现实。太空旅游的发展，极大地冲击着中国的旅游市场、旅游政策和相关的法律制度。太空旅游产品开发滞后、太空旅游国际合作缺乏、太空旅游保险法律制度缺失都是目前存在的严重问题。为此，中国政府和有关部门在太空旅游方面应努力调整政策，积极应对；正确引导，科学规范；完善立法，加强保障；加强合作，国际协调。     

从《摩奴法典》婚烟家庭法看古印度的法文化

《摩奴法典》是古印度后吠陀时期权威性的法典①,它是古印度社会历史沉淀的产物。从《摩奴法典》的婚姻家庭法中折射出的古印度法文化代表着这一时期法文化的共同特征。以法典的婚姻家庭法为视角,对这一时期古印度的法文化的特点以及各特点的形成原因、表现和社会影响作一分析,便于我们更深刻的了解古印度法系和法文化     

改革开放以来中国经济发展及1997—2010年经济发展预测(三)——中国地区经济发展的政策思路

预测“九五”至2010年中国地区经济发展,分析区域经济发展的两大特征,总结影响地区经济发展差别的基本规律,提出促进中国区域经济协调发展的政策选择。     

平面三次微分系统研究综述

本文首先阐明了研究E3的重要意义,然后指出E3的一般性质。奇点的分类与判定极限环线与奇异闭轨的存在性与唯一性,相对位置与代数曲线解．     

The almost sure convergence rate of the estimator of optimized certainty equivalent risk measure under α-mixing sequences

Conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) model is a kind of financial risk measure that is extensively supported and accepted by international financial community. Its optimized form can be regarded as an optimized certainty equivalent (OCE) risk measurement. In this paper, we mainly discuss and analyze the strong laws of large numbers and the convergence rate of OCE's estimator under α-mixing sequences. The result shows that the almost sure convergence rate of CVaR estimator is given by the results of OCE estimator. Its convergence rate is inversely proportional to the square root of the sample size under certain conditions. Its effectiveness is verified by simulation experiments for two classical α-mixing sequences.     

Community Resilience and Decision Theory Challenges for Catastrophic Events

Extreme and catastrophic events pose challenges for normative models of risk management decision making. They invite development of new methods and principles to complement existing normative decision and risk analysis. Because such events are rare, it is difficult to learn about them from experience. They can prompt both too little concern before the fact, and too much after. Emotionally charged and vivid outcomes promote probability neglect and distort risk perceptions. Aversion to acting on uncertain probabilities saps precautionary action; moral hazard distorts incentives to take care; imperfect learning and social adaptation (e.g., herd‐following, group‐think) complicate forecasting and coordination of individual behaviors and undermine prediction, preparation, and insurance of catastrophic events. Such difficulties raise substantial challenges for normative decision theories prescribing how catastrophe risks should be managed. This article summarizes challenges for catastrophic hazards with uncertain or unpredictable frequencies and severities, hard‐to‐envision and incompletely described decision alternatives and consequences, and individual responses that influence each other. Conceptual models and examples clarify where and why new methods are needed to complement traditional normative decision theories for individuals and groups. For example, prospective and retrospective preferences for risk management alternatives may conflict; procedures for combining individual beliefs or preferences can produce collective decisions that no one favors; and individual choices or behaviors in preparing for possible disasters may have no equilibrium. Recent ideas for building “disaster‐resilient” communities can complement traditional normative decision theories, helping to meet the practical need for better ways to manage risks of extreme and catastrophic events.     

Complete convergence and the strong laws of large numbers for pairwise NQD random variables

The authors study the strong convergence for sequences of pairwise negatively quadrant dependent (NQD) random variables under some wide conditions, and present some new theorems on the complete convergence and the strong laws of large numbers. The obtained results extend and improve some theorems in existing literature.     

Estimation for seasonal fractional ARIMA with stable innovations via the empirical characteristic function method

Seasonal fractional ARIMA (ARFISMA) model with infinite variance innovations is used in the analysis of seasonal long-memory time series with large fluctuations (heavy-tailed distributions). Two methods, which are the empirical characteristic function (ECF) procedure developed by Knight and Yu [The empirical characteristic function in time series estimation. Econometric Theory. 2002;18:691–721] and the Two-Step method (TSM) are proposed to estimate the parameters of stable ARFISMA model. The ECF method estimates simultaneously all the parameters, while the TSM considers in the first step the Markov Chains Monte Carlo–Whittle approach introduced by Ndongo et al. [Estimation of long-memory parameters for seasonal fractional ARIMA with stable innovations. Stat Methodol. 2010;7:141–151], combined with the maximum likelihood estimation method developed by Alvarez and Olivares [Méthodes d'estimation pour des lois stables avec des applications en finance. Journal de la Société Française de Statistique. 2005;1(4):23–54] in the second step. Monte Carlo simulations are also used to evaluate the finite sample performance of these estimation techniques.     

我国学前教育地方立法研究

学前教育地方立法是我国学前教育立法体系的有机组成部分，截至2020 年1 月，我国现行有效的学前教育地方性法规 规章共61 部，呈现出立法时间跨度大，立法主体覆盖面广，立法模式体例多样等特征。地方立法一定程度上规范着地方学前 教育的有序开展，但也存在部分省市立法机关对当地学前教育立法关注度不高、部分立法难以满足当前学前教育发展需求、表 达不规范、可操作性欠佳、缺乏地方特色以及冲突与越位等问题。对此，应从科学确定学前教育地方立法内容、建立地方性法 律适时更新制度、健全学前教育地方立法调研制度、加强地方立法专业化制度建设等方面予以优化。     

基于邻避运动视域的中产阶层功能重新审视]——以R市的“核邻避运动”为例

国内学术界将“中产阶层”视为社会政治“稳定—缓冲”器的认知看似符合静态的中国社会结构，但就现实而言，却忽略了转型期中国政治社会情境的复杂性和过渡性。近年来，城市中产业主引发的愈演愈烈的邻避运动，更是挑战这一传统认知。基于R市“核邻避运动”的视域，我们发现中国城市中产阶层的社会政治功能在某一特定时间流下会发生转变，甚至出现了“稳定器”和“动荡器”两个相对立的社会、政治功能。而差别阶层特质、中产精英上台等内部中介机制,以及怨愤情绪生产、政府内部分歧等外部中介机制，是中产阶层社会政治功能演化的深层机制。此外，值得注意的是，由于“身份限制”和“制度限制”的二重性，中产阶层的社会政治功能往往并不会演变为“颠覆—异化”器。