Pre‐procreative ages in population stability and cyclicity

Age‐specific models of population renewal (with and without feedback) which imply convergence to a stable state for some levels of fertility or feedback may imply the presence of long‐term cycling around a constant or exponentially changing equilibrium for other levels of fertility or feedback. The switch from one regime to the other is a “bifurcation.”; The conditions for bifurcation involve the roots of an analogue of Lotka's Equation.

Typically bifurcation is induced by raising the strength of feedback or the level of fertility. It has been known since the early 1980s, however, that this is sometimes impossible. It is sometimes impossible even with the linear renewal equation itself and with the most basic of non‐linear models, Lee's cohort feedback model.

Here it is proved that this typical route to bifurcation does not fail for these basic models in the presence of a condition which always holds for realistic applications with higher organisms: the existence of a span of ages before the onset of fertility.

Specifically, a strictly positive lower bound on ages of procreation is proved to be sufficient to guarantee the existence of a rescaling of Lotka's Equation for which the real part of some complex root vanishes. This result holds for absolutely Lebesgue‐integrable (signed) net maternity functions on the positive real line and for absolutely summable (signed) net maternities on the positive integers.

It follows that Coale's rescaling device for the analysis of approach to stability in stable population theory can be implemented for all realistic human net maternity schedules. It also follows that the many special cases of the cohort feedback model throughout population biology will all generate persistent cycling instead of stability if feedback is sufficiently strong.     

民族自治地方制定民族区域自治法实施办法的几点思考

自治地方制定民族区域自治法实施办法迫在眉睫。自治地方制定自治法实施办法存在不少问题。本文就自治地方制定自治法实施办法存在的主要问题,即认识问题和利益协调问题,提出自治地方制定自治法实施办法的几点思考。     

A strong law of large numbers for independent random variables under non-additive probabilities

Abstract

Under non‐additive probabilities, cluster points of the empirical average have been proved to quasi-surely fall into the interval constructed by either the lower and upper expectations or the lower and upper Choquet expectations. In this paper, based on the initiated notion of independence, we obtain a different Marcinkiewicz-Zygmund type strong law of large numbers. Then the Kolmogorov type strong law of large numbers can be derived from it directly, stating that the closed interval between the lower and upper expectations is the smallest one that covers cluster points of the empirical average quasi-surely.     

Throughput and delay analysis of an opportunistic tree algorithm

Tree algorithms are a well-known class of random access algorithms with a provable maximum stable throughput under the infinite population model (as opposed to ALOHA or the binary exponential backoff algorithm). In this article, we propose a tree algorithm for opportunistic spectrum usage in cognitive radio networks. A channel in such a network is shared among so-called primary and secondary users, where the secondary users are allowed to use the channel only if there is no primary user activity. The tree algorithm designed in this article can be used by the secondary users to share the channel capacity left by the primary users.

We analyze the maximum stable throughput and mean packet delay of the secondary users by developing a tree structured Quasi-Birth Death Markov chain under the assumption that the primary user activity can be modeled by means of a finite state Markov chain and that packets lengths follow a discrete phase-type distribution.

Numerical experiments provide insight on the effect of various system parameters and indicate that the proposed algorithm is able to make good use of the bandwidth left by the primary users.     

《尚书·洪范》与公羊“大一统”思想——以“建用皇极”与“正五始”为中心

作为公羊学的核心内容之一,“大一统”说与《尚书·洪范》的“建用皇极”说有着深刻的思想关联。首先,二者皆以“君极”之立作为王道之行的关键因素;其次,二者皆以“王正”作为“君极”之立的基本前提,且谓基于此,“一统”之义方得成立;再次,二者皆蕴含了改元立制以厚养万民之义。无论是“一统”说还是“皇极”论,固然均表现出鲜明的尊君色彩,但二者所强调的“归元”或“君极”思想实则又内涵着抑君乃至“革命”之意。因此,“大一统”并非简单地意味着思想、观念、文化、制度等方面的绝对统一化,而“皇极”论也并非主张君主专制。在儒家看来,君王之于天下人心,本质上不过起着召唤与凝聚的作用。     

市场经济特质与民商法之品格

民商立法若能正确反映市场经济的客观规律和必然条件,构建起和谐的法律体系,必须全面认识和把握市场经济的特质.市场经济即商品经济,它是人类社会不可逾越的经济形态.不同社会历史阶段的市场经济的发展程度不同,但都有着其共同的特质,民商法也即具有相应的共同品格.交换性、多样性、平等性、自愿性、利益性、信用性、知识性、开放性、竞争性和法治性,公开、公正与公平性是市场经济的重要特质和民商法必须具有之品格.     

The Roman Catholic Church: A Centuries Old History of Awareness of Clerical Child Sexual Abuse (from the First to the 19th Century)

Debates in international forums and in mainstream media on the role, responsibility, liability, and response of ecclesiastical authorities of the Roman Catholic Church (RCC) toward clerical child sexual abuse (cCSA) fail to take into account the historical roots and awareness of the problem. Reports also fail to mention the historic organizational laws RCC developed over centuries. In contrast, RCC documents evidence that the Catholic Church not only carried century’s old history of cCSA, but also repeatedly condemned cCSA by successive papal authorities, organizational laws, and institutional management mechanisms. During the first millennium, however, church laws remained confined to the bookshelves and were not converted into appropriate management policies and infrastructural models. This was largely due to the absence of a central administrative organizational structure, which developed later in the 12th century, following the Second Council of Lateran (1139) when the Papacy asserted its authority to establish administrative control over the organizational church. It was only then that management policies started to be framed and institutional structures enacted to deal more appropriately with cCSA from the 14th to 20th centuries. Despite this, RCC developed a culture of secrecy using clandestine organizational management models and institutional laws prescribed in 1568, 1622, 1741, 1866, 1922, and 1962 which aimed to manage cCSA. The current study traces reported cCSA as far back as the first century and critically examines the organizational laws, and institutional policies developed by RCC to address clerical sexual misconduct up to the end of the 19th century.     

有限理性下的社保基金投资监管进化博弈研究

社保基金的投资监管是复杂的决策问题,无法满足主流博弈论“完全理性”的要求。因此从有限理性角度出发,分别建立了基金经理人之间、社保基金管理机构与基金经理人之间的进化博弈模型,求出模型的复制动态方程,研究不同情况下的进化稳定策略,并得到博弈群体的复制动态相位图。     

元朝野生动物保护政策及其对旅游资源保护的启示

在中国历史上,元朝统治者比较懂得爱惜野生动物。在这种思想意识的支配下,他们制定了一套完整的保护野生动物的条例和法规,详细规定了狩猎和禁猎的时间、地点及捕猎野生动物的种类,并在实践中认真贯彻执行,使元朝的野生动物保护工作走上了法制轨道,取得了明显的社会效益、经济效益和生态效益。这一切对于今天的旅游资源开发与保护仍有借鉴意义。     

论转基因生物技术的安全性及其法律规制

转基因生物技术可能引发对环境、生态、生命、健康及和平的安全问题,必须引起足够的重视,以法律予以规制。在比较分析国内外相关立法例的基础上,提出构建我国生物技术安全法体系的构想。