Empirical Non-Parametric Control Charts: Estimation Effects and Corrections

Owing to the extreme quantiles involved, standard control charts are very sensitive to the effects of parameter estimation and non-normality. More general parametric charts have been devised to deal with the latter complication and corrections have been derived to compensate for the estimation step, both under normal and parametric models. The resulting procedures offer a satisfactory solution over a broad range of underlying distributions. However, situations do occur where even such a large model is inadequate and nothing remains but to consider non- parametric charts. In principle, these form ideal solutions, but the problem is that huge sample sizes are required for the estimation step. Otherwise the resulting stochastic error is so large that the chart is very unstable, a disadvantage that seems to outweigh the advantage of avoiding the model error from the parametric case. Here we analyse under what conditions non-parametric charts actually become feasible alternatives for their parametric counterparts. In particular, corrected versions are suggested for which a possible change point is reached at sample sizes that are markedly less huge (but still larger than the customary range). These corrections serve to control the behaviour during in-control (markedly wrong outcomes of the estimates only occur sufficiently rarely). The price for this protection will clearly be some loss of detection power during out-of-control. A change point comes in view as soon as this loss can be made sufficiently small.     

A modified random-effect procedure for combining risk difference in sets of 2×2 tables from clinical trials

Summary Meta-analyses of sets of clinical trials often combine risk differences from several 2×2 tables according to a random-effects model. The DerSimonian-Laird random-effects procedure, widely used for estimating the populaton mean risk difference, weights the risk difference from each primary study inversely proportional to an estimate of its variance (the sum of the between-study variance and the conditional within-study variance). Because those weights are not independent of the risk differences, however, the procedure sometimes exhibits bias and unnatural behavior. The present paper proposes a modified weighting scheme that uses the unconditional within-study variance to avoid this source of bias. The modified procedure has variance closer to that available from weighting by ideal weights when such weights are known. We studied the modified procedure in extensive simulation experiments using situations whose parameters resemble those of actual studies in medical research. For comparison we also included two unbiased procedures, the unweighted mean and a sample-size-weighted mean; their relative variability depends on the extent of heterogeneity among the primary studies. An example illustrates the application of the procedures to actual data and the differences among the results. This research was supported by Grant HS 05936 from the Agency for Health Care Policy and Research to Harvard University.     

第二次世界大战对世界格局产生的影响

第二次世界大战以雅尔塔体系为基础形成了以美苏两大国为首的世界政治格局,对战后世界政治、经济和国际关系产生了深刻影响。随着两极格局的终结,世界又朝着多极化趋势发展。     

非拓扑孤子模型的相变特征与袋常数的温度依赖性

本文计算了在有限温度和密度下非拓扑孤子模型的有效势;得到了袋常数对温度和化学势的依赖关系;分析了禁闭解除相变的特征.结果表明:该模型的禁闭解除相变为一级;相变特征的分析表明有退禁闭相与禁闭相的两相共存.     

Improving the contributions of technology assessment to the health care system of the U.S.A.

Summary Based on 14 case studies of highly effective therapies and the reasons they succeeded less frequently than they could, we propose a variety of steps to improve the health care system of the U.S.A. Whatever proposal emerges from current national debates until innovations are shown to be safe and effective, they should not be supported; when slightly better technologies are much more expensive than other good ones we need to consider appropriate choices carefully; simplified billing and bookkeping would reduce our costs; when a technology is rapidly introduced cautionnary measures may be needed; tracking immunization and repairing their omissions requires a new system; educational programs such as seen effective in hypertension should be applied in other areas such as vaccination; in organ transplantation the nation should consider “presumed consent”; our payment system sometimes creates perverse incentives and therefore needs review; and the preferences of the public in allocation of health resources need to be discovered once the public is informed about the issues. Research supported by Andrew W. Mellon Foundation.     

A Two-dimensional Heat Transfer Model for Atmosphere-land System in the Lake-dominated Alaskan Arctic

1 Introduction Shallow tundra lakes are one of the dominating landscape features in the Alaskan Arctic. They typically cover 20% of the total area of the North Slope of Alaska, and up to about 40% in the coastal plain [1,2]. Many lakes are, in their entirety or in part, shallower than the maximum annual ice thickness, consequently, some ice freezes completely to the lake bottom, nevertheless, large areas of water are deeper than the maximum ice thickness and the ice remains afloat througho…     

位相物体像全息图的拍摄

讨论了位相物体激光像面全息摄影的特点，从全息与橱窗装饰艺术结合的设想出发，设计了位相物体像全息图的拍摄实验，取得好的实验教学效果．     

8 mm点聚焦透镜天线的工程设计

根据等离子体密度的测量要求,设计了一种工作于8mm频段的点聚焦透镜天线。对系统进行仿真和实验验证,仿真及实验结果均证实了设计的可行性和正确性,高次模可以忽略的理论也得到了有力的证明,为天线的工程设计提供了一定的理论和参考价值。     

美苏在德国赔偿问题上的矛盾与德国的分裂

德国在二战后被分裂成两个国家,就其外部因素来讲,是由于以美苏为首的大国合作政策在战后逐渐走向对抗并导致冷战的产物,是外部力量施加于德国的结果,而在走向对抗的过程中,美苏在德国赔偿问题上的冲突,是导致德国分裂的一个重要原因。     

基于直接接触凝结理论的汽液两相流升压模型

针对汽液两相流升压装置利用经验模型计算的过程中，仅能对出口压力进行计算，且计算值与实验值有较大误差的弱点，提出了用直接接触凝结（DCC）的理论求解汽液两相流的一维理论模型。计算升压装置的最大出口压力，分析其他参量的变化规律。结果表明，汽液两相流在凝结激波前为泡沫流，在凝结激波后完全凝结成单相水的情况下，升压装置的出口压力达到最大值。