Bayesian reconstruction of the missing failure times in exponential distribution

In this paper, we consider the situations in which a middle part of the sample is lost or removed from the experiment. The left-censored sample and Type-II right-censored sample are special cases of this scheme. Point and interval reconstructors for lost failure times are obtained, while the underlying distribution is exponential. To illustrate the performance of the proposed procedures, two numerical examples based on the real data sets are presented. In the case of two-parameter, a simulation study has been done and also the sensitivity of the results to deviations from the true distribution is investigated.     

世代更替与范式转换──近十年马华文学发展考察

近十年是马来西亚华文文学史上创作最丰硕的十年，期间文学变迁非常剧烈。这种嬗变主要体现在文坛世代更替与文学范式转换两个方面。从９０年代开始，新世代作家逐渐取代中坚一代作家成为马华文坛的主导力量。与此同时，当代马华文学也进入了范式转换的新时期，这主要表现在散文、诗歌、小说、文学批评的范式转变上。     

A method for approximate fully bayesian analysis of parameters

Stochastic modeling of the geology in petroleum reservoirs has become an important tool in order to investigate flow properties in the reservoir. The stochastic models used contain parameters which must be estimated based on observations and geological knowledge. The amount of data available is however quite limited due to high drilling costs etc., and the lack of data prevents the use of many of the standard data driven approaches to the parameter estimation problem. Modern simulation based methods using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation, can however be used to do fully Bayesian analysis with respect to parameters in the reservoir model, with the drawback of relatively high computational costs. In this paper, we propose a simple, relatively fast approximate method for fully Bayesian analysis of the parameters. We illustrate the method on both simulated and real data using a two-dimensional marked point model for reservoir characterization.     

Monitoring the production of a supply chain with a revisited MRP approach

This paper examines the centralised monitoring of an upstream supply chain (USC) in the context of a mass customisation production system. We propose an adaptation of the material requirement planning framework to manage demand uncertainty at each stage of the USC. New analytical relations that exploit structural information on demand beyond the frozen horizon are developed for efficient decision-making and appropriate information sharing among the productive supply chain units. A numerical example to illustrate the implementation of the new analytical relations is provided, and a synthesis of benchmarks performed in the automotive industry is presented.     

朝鲜战争与东北亚格局

东北亚的钥匙是朝鲜半岛,谁掌握了朝鲜半岛,谁就掌握了东北亚地区。朝鲜半岛局势每一次大的变化,无不影响到东北亚格局的变迁,而东北亚格局的演变,也必然左右着朝鲜半岛局势的发展。朝鲜战争的爆发与结束正是这种相互关系的最好诠释。在一定程度上而言,朝鲜战争是东北亚格局演变的结果,而战争的爆发与结束又促进了东北亚格局的重建。     

Three optimal cut-point selection criteria based on sensitivity and specificity with user-defined weights

Methods: Based on the index S (S = SENSITIVITY (SEN) × SPECIFICITY (SPE)), the new weighted product index S_w is defined as S_w = (SEN)^2w × (SPE)^2(1-w), where (0≤w≤1). The S_w is developed to be a new tool to select the optimal cut point in ROC analysis and be compared with the other two commonly used criteria.

Results: Comparing the optimal cut point for the three criteria, the wave range of the optimal cut point for the maximized weighted Youden index criterion is the widest, the weighted closest-to-(0,1) criterion is the narrowest and the weighted product index S_w criterion lays between the ranges of the two criteria.     

浅谈传统艺术图案在现代建筑设计中的运用

中国传统艺术图案的文化内涵极其丰富。在古代,曾有大量艺术图案被运用于工程建筑中,分析这些图案所展现的美感和包含的文化意蕴,有利于推动其在建筑设计中的进一步运用。     

论股份合作企业的法律形态

探讨了股份合作企业的法律形态问题,认为股份合作企业是法人,具有不同于其他规范企业形态的特征,符合现代企业发展方向,并有待于在立法中对股份合作企业予以明确规范,使之真正成为一种独立的企业法律形态。     

“三自一答”教学模式探析

“三自一答”是主体参与型教学模式 ,它是在老师的主导下 ,让学生自己读书 ,自己质疑 ,自己求索。其目的就在于充分调动学习主体———学生的积极性 ,引导他们积极主动、生动活泼的学习 ,培养他们分析问题 ,解决问题的能力。