Bayesian point null hypothesis testing via the posterior likelihood ratio

This paper gives an exposition of the use of the posterior likelihood ratio for testing point null hypotheses in a fully Bayesian framework. Connections between the frequentist P-value and the posterior distribution of the likelihood ratio are used to interpret and calibrate P-values in a Bayesian context, and examples are given to show the use of simple posterior simulation methods to provide Bayesian tests of common hypotheses.     

Shortage of girls in China today

China has the most severe shortage of girls compared to boys of any country in the world today, as documented by China's surveys and censuses up to 2000. This article evaluates data on sex ratios in China since before the founding of the People's Republic, and shows that the relative dearth of girls has become more extreme during the last two decades, and that the problem is real and not merely due to undercounting of girls. Daughters are lost primarily through sex-selective abortion, secondly through excess female infant mortality, and thirdly through neglect or mistreatment of girls up to age three, in cities as well as rural areas. Until recently, the dearth of girls was confined to second or higher-order births, but now couples in some provinces are using sex-selective abortions for first births. Maps show the geographical concentration of life-threatening discrimination against girls and its spread over time. Son preference, low fertility and technology combine to cause the loss of daughters in China today and compulsory family planning and the one-child policy exacerbate the problem. The discussion includes what the People's Republic of China has done to ameliorate life-threatening discrimination against girls and what further steps might be taken to improve the situation.     

Bayesian methods for generalized linear models with covariates missing at random

The authors propose methods for Bayesian inference for generalized linear models with missing covariate data. They specify a parametric distribution for the covariates that is written as a sequence of one‐dimensional conditional distributions. They propose an informative class of joint prior distributions for the regression coefficients and the parameters arising from the covariate distributions. They examine the properties of the proposed prior and resulting posterior distributions. They also present a Bayesian criterion for comparing various models, and a calibration is derived for it. A detailed simulation is conducted and two real data sets are examined to demonstrate the methodology.     

EXPONENTIAL DISPERSION MODELS AND THE GAUSS-NEWTON ALGORITHM

It is known that the Fisher scoring iteration for generalized linear models has the same form as the Gauss-Newton algorithm for normal regression. This note shows that exponential dispersion models are the most general families to preserve this form for the scoring iteration. Therefore exponential dispersion models are the most general extension of generalized linear models for which the analogy with normal regression is preserved. The multinomial distribution is used as an example.     

论高校思想政治理论课评价的激励功能

激励功能是高校思想政治教育理论课评价的最直接、最现实、最本质的功能之一,是具有"归宿"意义的功能。激励功能对于思想政治理论课评价来说,既是手段又是目的,既是形式又是内容。在高校思想政治理论课评价的激励功能中,通过积极的评价来增强教师和学生的自信心,提高自我肯定度,称为正向激励;通过适度的否定的评价来使教师和学生知不足而改进,增强其责任感和创造性,称为负向激励。     

A Bayesian method of sample size determination with practical applications

Summary.  The problem motivating the paper is the determination of sample size in clinical trials under normal likelihoods and at the substantive testing stage of a financial audit where normality is not an appropriate assumption. A combination of analytical and simulation-based techniques within the Bayesian framework is proposed. The framework accommodates two different prior distributions: one is the general purpose fitting prior distribution that is used in Bayesian analysis and the other is the expert subjective prior distribution, the sampling prior which is believed to generate the parameter values which in turn generate the data. We obtain many theoretical results and one key result is that typical non-informative prior distributions lead to very small sample sizes. In contrast, a very informative prior distribution may either lead to a very small or a very large sample size depending on the location of the centre of the prior distribution and the hypothesized value of the parameter. The methods that are developed are quite general and can be applied to other sample size determination problems. Some numerical illustrations which bring out many other aspects of the optimum sample size are given.     

日本对华直接投资的行业布局及对策研究

入世后,我国利用外资的战略思想更加凸显出对“结构、质量、效益”的偏好,战略目标确定为以优化产业结构为重点,增强利用外资的总体经济效益。日本是我国引进外资的主要来源国之一,日本企业对华直接投资的行业比较多。文章分析了日资企业产业分布的现状、原因,并提出了优化日资企业产业分布的对策。     

Crucial factors determining the spatio-temporal distribution patterns of threeAthalia sawflies feeding on common cruciferous plants

Summary ThreeAthalia sawflies,A. japonica, A. rosae andA. infumata, feeding on cruciferous plants, coexist in Japan. However, it is not known what ecological strategies they use and what environmental factors are crucial to such strategies. I attempted to explain these questions by examining the relationship between the spatio-temporal distribution patterns of threeAthalia sawflies and their habitats in three districts (Lowland, Intermediate and Mountain). The three sawflies have different spatio-temporal distribution patterns, though they usually used common cruciferous plants.A. japonica was abundant in spring and autumn but disappeared during summer in all the districts. In the Lowland, populations ofA. rosae andA. infumata, like that ofA. japonica, crashed in summer. HoweverA. rosae occurred mainly in summer in the Intermediate and Mountain. AlthoughA. infumata occurred in the same seasons asA. rosae in all districts, population levels ofA. infumata were always lower than those ofA. rosae. The crucial factors controlling their population patterns were the availability of host plants and temperature. Population crashes ofA. rosae andA. infumata were due to food depletion, and those ofA. japonica were due to heat stress. On the other hand, their population patterns may be interpreted as phenological synchronization with their original host plants, though they all existed on common cruciferous plants. The three sawflies may have evolved different strategies to escape from unfavorable habitat conditions. Such strategies are speculated to be summer diapause inA. japonica, long distance migration inA. rosae, and local dispersal inA. infumata.     

关于非中心Laplace分布的密度函数

在本文中,对文[1]提出的广义Laplace分布进行了讨论,给出了广义Laplace分布的密度函数的解析表达式,同时进一步推导了非中心Laplace分布的密度函数表达式,最后对这类分布重要的数字特征在文中也被给出.