Security level,potential level,expected utility: A three-criteria decision model under risk

Among the violations of expected utility (E.U.) theory which have been observed by experimenters, the violations of its independence axiom is, by far, the most common. It seems that, in many cases, these inconsistencies can be ascribed to the desire for security - called the security factor by L. Lopes (1986) - which makes people attach special importance to the worst outcomes of risky decisions as well as to the sole outcomes of riskless decisions (certainty effect). J.-Y. Jaffray (1988) has proposed a model which generalizes E.U. theory by taking into account this factor and is then able to account for certain violations. However, especially in experiments on choice involving prospective losses, violations of the von Neumann-Morgenstern independence axiom cannot be explained by the security factor alone and have to be partially ascribed to the potential factor (L. Lopes, 1986) which reflects heightened attention to the best outcomes of decisions, especially when the best outcome is the status quo. In this paper, we construct an axiomatic model for subjects taking into account simultaneously or alternatively the security factor and the potential factor. For this, as in Jaffray's model, it has been necessary to weaken not only the standard independence axiom but also the continuity axiom and, in the same time, to reinforce the dominance axiom. In the resulting model, choices are partially determined by the mere comparison of the (security level, potential level) (i.e. the (worst outcome, best outcome)) pairs offered, and completed by the maximization of an affine function of the expected utility, the coefficients of which depend on both the security level and potential level.In this model, a decision maker who (i) has constant marginal utility for money, (ii) is sensitive to the security factor alone in the domain of gains, (iii) is sensitive to the potential factor alone in the domain of losses, behaves as a risk averter for gains and a risk seeker for losses.     

基于教练技术方法的大学生领导力教育研究

领导力是当代大学生必备的基本素质,应成为大学生素质教育的重要内容之一,而其教育方法应从单一传统的理论教学授课转变为教练式教学方法,应注重发挥学生的主体性作用,在实践活动中训练和培养学生的主观能动性。因此,教练技术作为一项通过完善被教练者心智模式来激发其潜能的管理技术,能够成为满足大学生领导力培养与发展需求的有效工具。     

求全局极小的“塌方”方法

对求全局极小的方法进行了研究,构造出寻优算法,把寻找全局极小的过程分解为局部寻优过程和突破过程的反复。局部寻优过程可采用一般寻局部极小的任一种优化算法,突破过程通过引入广义实力势函数和寻优过程的结合而实现,实例计算结果表明算法有效可行。     

农村独生子女家庭的现代权变与制度隐忧——以苏北鱼村“一子两挑”的家庭为例

“一子两挑”是独生子女家庭在日常实践中为应对现实需求而形塑出的权变模式,以独生子女为主体的核心小家庭呈现出双系继嗣的制度幻象。然而户籍的分离和财产继承的身份边界将小夫妻割裂为两个独立的经济主体,并将孙代的姓氏与财产继承捆绑,进一步撕裂了小家庭的完整性;另一方面,夫妻小家庭因利益、感情、现实等因素避重就轻地游走在两家之间,父代被置于劣势地位,家庭养老逐渐向“管好最后丧礼”的形式化孝道蜕变。由此来看,“一子两挑”的婚居实践确实改写了男性单系继嗣的家庭制度,但在变革的过程中存在诸多隐忧,是否会转向双系继嗣制度有待进一步研究。     

TITE‐BOIN‐ET: Time‐to‐event Bayesian optimal interval design to accelerate dose‐finding based on both efficacy and toxicity outcomes

One of the primary purposes of an oncology dose‐finding trial is to identify an optimal dose (OD) that is both tolerable and has an indication of therapeutic benefit for subjects in subsequent clinical trials. In addition, it is quite important to accelerate early stage trials to shorten the entire period of drug development. However, it is often challenging to make adaptive decisions of dose escalation and de‐escalation in a timely manner because of the fast accrual rate, the difference of outcome evaluation periods for efficacy and toxicity and the late‐onset outcomes. To solve these issues, we propose the time‐to‐event Bayesian optimal interval design to accelerate dose‐finding based on cumulative and pending data of both efficacy and toxicity. The new design, named “TITE‐BOIN‐ET” design, is nonparametric and a model‐assisted design. Thus, it is robust, much simpler, and easier to implement in actual oncology dose‐finding trials compared with the model‐based approaches. These characteristics are quite useful from a practical point of view. A simulation study shows that the TITE‐BOIN‐ET design has advantages compared with the model‐based approaches in both the percentage of correct OD selection and the average number of patients allocated to the ODs across a variety of realistic settings. In addition, the TITE‐BOIN‐ET design significantly shortens the trial duration compared with the designs without sequential enrollment and therefore has the potential to accelerate early stage dose‐finding trials.     

Non-parametric MANOVA approaches for non-normal multivariate outcomes with missing values

Between-group comparisons often entail many correlated response variables. The multivariate linear model, with its assumption of multivariate normality, is the accepted standard tool for these tests. When this assumption is violated, the non-parametric multivariate Kruskal–Wallis (MKW) test is frequently used. However, this test requires complete cases with no missing values in response variables. Deletion of cases with missing values likely leads to inefficient statistical inference. Here we extend the MKW test to retain information from partially observed cases. Results of simulated studies and analysis of real data show that the proposed method provides adequate coverage and superior power to complete case analyses.     

The Influence of Rural and Urban Substance Abuse Treatment Counselor Characteristics on Client Outcomes

ABSTRACT

Focus group data were collected from 28 substance abuse treatment counselors employed in rural and urban areas to examine their perceptions of factors influencing treatment outcomes. The influence of the counselor characteristics (i.e., education, experience, and recovery status) on client outcomes and geographic differences is explored. Focus group data were analyzed by three raters using line-by-line coding, focused coding, and memoing. This analytic approach revealed geographic differences in the counselors’ perceptions of the effect of counselor education, experience, and recovery status on client outcomes. Recommendations for treatment planning and future research are provided.     

The Relationship of Social Support to Functional Limitations,Pain, and Well Being Among Men and Women

The purposes of this study were to assess the relationships of functional limitations, pain and well being to social support (emotional, tangible, informational and integrative) and to assess gender differences in these relationships. Except for integrative support, significant positive relationships were found between types of functional limitations and specific types of social supports among 15 men and 15 women (M = 67 years) with end stage joint disease. Pain was not significantly associated with any social support, but well being was related to informational and emotional supports. As compared to men, the relationships of tangible and integrative supports to well being, pain and functional impairment were signficantly greater for women as was the association of emotional support to limitations in mobility and physical activity. In contrast, women had signif~cantlys maller relationships of emotional support to limitations in ADL and household activities.     

Early Intervention into Addictive and Mental Health Disorders

No abstract available for this article.