Dynamic reliability models with conditional proportional hazards

A dynamic approach to the stochastic modelling of reliability systems is further explored. This modelling approach is particularly appropriate for load-sharing, software reliability, and multivariate failure-time models, where component failure characteristics are affected by their degree of use, amount of load, or extent of stresses experienced. This approach incorporates the intuitive notion that when a set of components in a coherent system fail at a certain time, there is a jump from one structure function to another which governs the residual lifetimes of the remaining functioning components, and since the component lifetimes are intrinsically affected by the structure function which they constitute, then at such a failure time there should also be a jump in the stochastic structure of the lifetimes of the remaining components. For such dynamically-modelled systems, the stochastic characteristics of their jump times are studied. These properties of the jump times allow us to obtain the properties of the lifetime of the system. In particular, for a Markov dynamic model, specific expressions for the exact distribution functions of the jump times are obtained for a general coherent system, a parallel system, and a series-parallel system. We derive a new family of distribution functions which describes the distributions of the jump times for a dynamically-modelled system.     

Sample selection in radiocarbon dating

Archaeologists working on the island of O'ahu, Hawai'i, use radiocarbon dating of samples of organic matter found trapped in fish-pond sediments to help them to learn about the chronology of the construction and use of the aquicultural systems created by the Polynesians. At one particular site, Loko Kuwili, 25 organic samples were obtained and funds were available to date an initial nine. However, on calibration to the calendar scale, the radiocarbon determinations provided date estimates that had very large variances. As a result, major issues of chronology remained unresolved and the archaeologists were faced with the prospect of another expensive programme of radiocarbon dating. This paper presents results of research that tackles the problems associated with selecting samples from those which are still available. Building on considerable recent research that utilizes Markov chain Monte Carlo methods to aid archaeologists in their radiocarbon calibration and interpretation, we adopt the standard Bayesian framework of risk functions, which allows us to assess the optimal samples to be sent for dating. Although rather computer intensive, our algorithms are simple to implement within the Bayesian radiocarbon framework that is already in place and produce results that are capable of direct interpretation by the archaeologists. By dating just three more samples from Loko Kuwili the expected variance on the date of greatest interest could be substantially reduced.     

大功率晶体管的保护及应用

本文介绍了大功率晶体管的保护原理,大功率晶体管驱动保护集成电路ＵＡＡ４００２和霍尔传感器ＬＡ５０的功能和用法。     

永恒的轮回——传统“警世”文学母题的人生观与价值观

传统“警世”文学里,作家在表现人的基本需求时往往流露出既向往又恐惧的心态。这种向往与恐惧心态的交替或反复出现,反映出作家对于喜与悲、幸与不幸,对于历史、社会、人生的倏忽变幻的循环感,这使中国古典作家轻易地接受佛教的轮回观念。这种对于生命存在的不确定性的感受与表达,显示了传统“警世”文学的深刻与凝重。     

A spanning heuristic for the unordered and ordered matching identification problem

The matching identification problem (MIP) is a combinatoric search problem related to the fields of learning from examples, boolean functions, and knowledge acquisition. The MIP involves identifying a single “goal” item from a large set of items. Because there is commonly a cost associated with evaluating each guess, the goal item should be identified in as few guesses as possible. As in most search problems, the items have a similar structure, which allows an evaluation of each guessed item. In other words, each guessed item elicits partial information about the goal item, i.e. how similar the guess is to the goal. With this information the goal is more quickly identified.The unordered MIP has been studied by Mehrez and Steinberg (ORSA J. Comput. 7 (1995) 211) in which they proposed two different types of algorithms. The purpose of the present paper is to suggest an improved Spanning Heuristic algorithm. Its improvement increases as the problem size increases. Further results and comparisons are derived for the unordered and ordered cases.This research shows that when the search space is very large, it is better to inquire from items that are known not to be the goal (they have been ruled out by previous guesses), for the purpose of acquiring more information about the goal. As the search space is narrowed, it is better to guess items that have not been ruled out.     

异质产品供应链定价控制权与零售商横向兼并效应分析

针对一部线性合约与供应商是否具有绝对定价控制权,比较分析零售商横向兼并集中度提高对消费者福利的影响.结果表明,(1)当供应商具有绝对定价控制权时,零售商横向兼并对消费者产生的影响取决于产品替代性程度大小:若替代性程度较高,则将产生有利影响,反之,将产生不利影响;(2)当供应商没有绝对定价控制权时,零售商横向兼并对消费者产生的影响取决于零售商兼并前的相对定价控制权强弱与兼并后的相对定价控制权增幅大小:若零售商在供应链中处于相对弱势地位,且零售商横向兼并使零售商的定价控制权增幅较大,则兼并将对消费者产生有利影响,否则,将对消费者产生不利影响.     

新时代我国检察机关法律监督权的重构

国家立法者依照一元分立下衍生的国家法律监督理论建构了我国的检察系统,但没有在具体立法中规定其相应的全面监督职能。在设立监察委员会制度的背景下,我国宪制中的法律监督机关的构成将面临重大改革,检察机关的法律监督权必须予以重构,这为检察机关实现地位与职能的一致性和职能的优化提供了契机。在新时代背景下,检察机关法律监督权的重构,应当坚持宪法关于检察机关是法律监督机关的性质定位;遵循法治精神,在重构中实现国家权力分权制衡,发挥法律监督权维护人民主权的功能;反映司法规律,把公诉职能作为检察机关的核心职能并对之开展符合司法规律的职能优化。     

中国建设“世界制造业强国”背景下的制造业技能人才研究

处于后工业化经济时代的当代世界,技能人才对推动国家经济的发展具有举足轻重的作用,因此,确保“质优量足”的技能人才成为制造业强国广泛关注的一个焦点,这加速造成了全球技能人才的激烈争夺,进而引发世界范围内大面积的“技能荒”现象.由此,文章在中国建设“世界制造业强国”的背景下,基于对制造业中心国家——英国、美国和日本制造业技能人才短缺现状和成因探讨的基础上,深入分析三国政府和企业采取的措施以及效果,以期为中国有效应对技能人才短缺提供参考.     

习近平建设海洋强国重要论述研究

习近平建设海洋强国重要论述经历了率先发出“向海进军”号召、明确提出海洋经济强省建设、庄严宣告海洋强国建设三个阶段。习近平建设海洋强国重要论述主要包括发展海洋经济、保护海洋环境、创新海洋科技、维护海洋权益等。习近平建设海洋强国重要论述具有三个鲜明的特点：在海洋强国建设“目的性”上做到了为国富强与为民谋利的统筹;在海洋强国建设“方法论”上做到了矛盾论和系统论等方法的统筹运用;在海洋强国建设“治理观”上实现了国际治理与国家治理的统筹。习近平建设海洋强国重要论述具有重要的区域意义——指导有关沿海省份创建海洋强省示范区、国家意义——强力推进海洋强国建设并取得了重大突破、世界意义——为全球海洋治理提供“中国方案”和“中国经验”。     

中国电力消费周期的路径演化识别——基于Markov区制转移模型

基于1980-2016年中国第一产业、第二产业（工业、建筑业）和第三产业的年度电力消费数据,采用H-P滤波技术对中国电力消费的趋势成分和波动成分轨迹进行刻画,运用马尔科夫区制转移[MS（n）-AR（p）]模型分析中国电力消费周期在各区制间的动态转移过程,识别改革开放以来中国电力消费周期的路径演化特征,在此基础上预测未来5年中国电力消费周期的区制分布情况。研究发现:（1）中国电力消费增长率的波动程度自2003年明显缩窄,且从2007年开始进入下行周期。（2）中国电力消费周期具有较强的稳定性,不易向着其收缩期和扩张期跨越。且中国电力消费处于"低速增长区制"的年份往往对应着中国经济发展相对趋缓的大环境。（3）2014-2015年中国电力消费向其收缩期转移的迹象明显,但预测结果表明,未来5年中国电力消费整体上将继续保持稳定增长的趋势。