The Effects of Beliefs Versus Risk Attitude on Bargaining Outcomes

In bargaining environments with uncertain disagreement or “impasse” outcomes (e.g., litigation or labor strike outcomes), there is an identification problem that confounds data interpretation. Specifically, the minimally acceptable settlement value from a risk-averse (risk-loving) but unbiased-belief bargainer is empirically indistinguishable from what one could get with risk-neutrality and pessimistically (optimistically) biased beliefs. This article reports results from a controlled bargaining experiment where data on both risk attitude and beliefs under uncertainty are generated in order to assess their relative importance in bargaining experiment outcomes. The average lab subject is risk-averse, yet optimistic with respect to uncertainty, which is consistent with existing studies that examine each in isolation. I also find that the effects of optimism dominate those of risk-aversion. Optimistic bargainers are significantly more likely to dispute and have aggressive final bargaining positions. Dispute rates are not statistically affected by risk attitude, but there is some evidence that risk aversion leads to a weakened bargaining position. Though additional research is needed to understand the limits of extending these results, a key implication follows. In uncertainty environments where optimism dominates, increased settlement rates are more likely achieved by minimizing impasse uncertainty (to limit the potential for optimism) rather than maximizing uncertainty (to weaken the reservation point of risk-averse bargainers), as has been argued in the dispute resolution literature.      

Designs for two-colour microarray experiments

Summary.  Designs for two-colour microarray experiments can be viewed as block designs with two treatments per block. Explicit formulae for the A- and D-criteria are given for the case that the number of blocks is equal to the number of treatments. These show that the A- and D-optimality criteria conflict badly if there are 10 or more treatments. A similar analysis shows that designs with one or two extra blocks perform very much better, but again there is a conflict between the two optimality criteria for moderately large numbers of treatments. It is shown that this problem can be avoided by slightly increasing the number of blocks. The two colours that are used in each block effectively turn the block design into a row–column design. There is no need to use a design in which every treatment has each colour equally often: rather, an efficient row–column design should be used. For odd replication, it is recommended that the row–column design should be based on a bipartite graph, and it is proved that the optimal such design corresponds to an optimal block design for half the number of treatments. Efficient row–column designs are given for replications 3–6. It is shown how to adapt them for experiments in which some treatments have replication only 2.     

新升本科院校工科实践教学改革研究

新升本科院校工科实践教学在人才培养模式、教育教学观念、实践教学流程等方面存在着诸多问题,解决这些问题的方法主要有三种:第一,转变教育思想,更新教育观念,重视实践教学;第二,改革工科实践教学的内容、方法、手段,采用分层分步、贴近工程实际的方法进行教学;第三,加强实验室与实习基地的建设,将产、学、研切实结合起来。     

Bayesian analysis of agricultural field experiments

The paper describes Bayesian analysis for agricultural field experiments, a topic that has received very little previous attention, despite a vast frequentist literature. Adoption of the Bayesian paradigm simplifies the interpretation of the results, especially in ranking and selection. Also, complex formulations can be analysed with comparative ease, by using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. A key ingredient in the approach is the need for spatial representations of the unobserved fertility patterns. This is discussed in detail. Problems caused by outliers and by jumps in fertility are tackled via hierarchical t formulations that may find use in other contexts. The paper includes three analyses of variety trials for yield and one example involving binary data; none is entirely straightforward. Some comparisons with frequentist analyses are made.     

The Law of Large Demand for Information

An unresolved problem in Bayesian decision theory is how to value and price information. This paper resolves both problems assuming inexpensive information. Building on Large Deviation Theory, we produce a generically complete asymptotic order on samples of i.i.d. signals in finite–state, finite–action models. Computing the marginal value of an additional signal, we find it is eventually exponentially falling in quantity, and higher for lower quality signals. We provide a precise formula for the information demand, valid at low prices: asymptotically a constant times the log price, and falling in the signal quality for a given price.     

U型理论视域下改进高校思想政治理论课的思考

新形势下,高校思想政治理论课教学中贯彻以人为本、立德树人,首先必须找准盲点,即由以往对学习的结果和过程的关注转移到对教学主体和学习主体的内在状况的关注。把这种盲点放在奥托·夏莫U型理论框架里进行综合分析,考察教学主体和学习主体改变未来能力生长的"土壤",剖析改良思想政治理论课"土壤"的因素及路径,以飨于思想政治理论课的改进,增强其针对性和实效性。     

当代科学前沿创新：现状、问题、走向——兼论“三创三先”江苏精神在当代科学前沿的体现

经济社会的进一步发展需要基础科学创新能力的不断提高,来为其提供一个持久的推动力。然而,对基础科学创新重视不足,在我国是一个具有共性的问题。提升基础科学创新能力,必须摆脱强“经济中心”思想的影响,提高民众的科学素养,实现科学方法的原始创新。     

How to test hypotheses if you must

Drug development is not the only industrial‐scientific enterprise subject to government regulations. In some fields of ecology and environmental sciences, the application of statistical methods is also regulated by ordinance. Over the past 20years, ecologists and environmental scientists have argued against an unthinking application of null hypothesis significance tests. More recently, Canadian ecologists have suggested a new approach to significance testing, taking account of the costs of both type I and type II errors. In this paper, we investigate the implications of this for testing in drug development and demonstrate that its adoption leads directly to the likelihood principle and Bayesian approaches. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Behavioral dynamics of tax evasion – A survey

Since the 1950s (Schmölders, 1959) it is well known that behavioral aspects have an influence on tax evasion or tax compliance. In particular, interactions among the various entities involved in the taxation process (e.g. taxpayers, law makers, tax practitioners, tax authorities, etc.), and the dynamics that these interactions may generate, seem to play an important role for the actual level of tax compliance. However, the mainstream neoclassical approach to tax evasion (Allingham & Sandmo, 1972) cannot account for such interactions and dynamics. Therefore, during the last two decades new approaches (e.g. lab experiments, agent-based modeling, etc.) have been developed with a view to model how behavioral dynamics may foster or prevent tax evasion. In addition, empirical evidence has been generated that supports a role for such interaction dynamics. In this contribution we survey the main developments in this research area and provide some suggestions for further research.     

Behavioral implications of providing real incentives in stated choice experiments

This paper explores the potential impacts of introducing real economic incentives in choice experiments (CE). While many others have investigated such impacts before, the majority of the literature has focused solely on mitigation of hypothetical bias. We contribute to this literature by widening the scope of research to other behavioral aspects where consumers in CE are often found to deviate from homo economicus. We develop a theoretical model where not only Willingness to pay (WTP) measures but also decision processing can be affected by the introduction of an economic incentive. Specifically, our model allows for differential impacts on attribute processing, depending on the character of the attribute as well as self-image effects. In an empirical CE survey, we find some, though not unequivocal, support of our model. Even though we find no impact on WTP from introducing an economic incentive, we find marked benefits in relation to a number of behavioral aspects that together would favor the use of an economic incentive regardless of hypothetical bias being present or not.