Asymptotic approximations to the distribution of Kendall's sample τ

This paper provides a saddlepoint approximation to the distribution of the sample version of Kendall's τ, which is a measure of association between two samples. The saddlepoint approximation is compared with the Edgeworth and the normal approximations, and with the bootstrap resampling distribution. A numerical study shows that with small sample sizes the saddlepoint approximation outperforms both the normal and the Edgeworth approximations. This paper gives also an analytical comparison between approximated and exact cumulants of the sample Kendall's τ when the two samples are independent.     

Non-Gaussian Ornstein–Uhlenbeck-based models and some of their uses in financial economics

Non-Gaussian processes of Ornstein–Uhlenbeck (OU) type offer the possibility of capturing important distributional deviations from Gaussianity and for flexible modelling of dependence structures. This paper develops this potential, drawing on and extending powerful results from probability theory for applications in statistical analysis. Their power is illustrated by a sustained application of OU processes within the context of finance and econometrics. We construct continuous time stochastic volatility models for financial assets where the volatility processes are superpositions of positive OU processes, and we study these models in relation to financial data and theory.     

Simulation techniques for generalized Gaussian densities

This contribution deals with the Monte Carlo simulation of generalized Gaussian random variables. Such a parametric family of distributions has been proposed in many applications in science to describe physical phenomena and in engineering, and it seems to be also useful in modelling economic and financial data. For values of the shape parameter α within a certain range, the distribution presents heavy tails. In particular, the cases α=1/3 and α=1/2 are considered. For such values of the shape parameter, different simulation methods are assessed.     

Smooth tail-index estimation

The two parametric distribution functions appearing in the extreme-value theory – the generalized extreme-value distribution and the generalized Pareto distribution – have log-concave densities if the extreme-value index γ∈[?1, 0]. Replacing the order statistics in tail-index estimators by their corresponding quantiles from the distribution function that is based on the estimated log-concave density ? f _n leads to novel smooth quantile and tail-index estimators. These new estimators aim at estimating the tail index especially in small samples. Acting as a smoother of the empirical distribution function, the log-concave distribution function estimator reduces estimation variability to a much greater extent than it introduces bias. As a consequence, Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate that the smoothed version of the estimators are well superior to their non-smoothed counterparts, in terms of mean-squared error.     

A Hellinger distance approach to MCMC diagnostics

Bayesian analysis often requires the researcher to employ Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques to draw samples from a posterior distribution which in turn is used to make inferences. Currently, several approaches to determine convergence of the chain as well as sensitivities of the resulting inferences have been developed. This work develops a Hellinger distance approach to MCMC diagnostics. An approximation to the Hellinger distance between two distributions f and g based on sampling is introduced. This approximation is studied via simulation to determine the accuracy. A criterion for using this Hellinger distance for determining chain convergence is proposed as well as a criterion for sensitivity studies. These criteria are illustrated using a dataset concerning the Anguilla australis, an eel native to New Zealand.     

A modified test for testing exponentiality using transformed data

In this article, we present a test for testing uniformity. Based on the test, we provide a test for testing exponentiality. Empirical critical values for both the tests are computed. Both the tests are compared with the tests proposed by Noughabi and Arghami [H. Alizadeh Noughabi, and N.R. Arghami, Testing exponentiality using transformed data, J. Statist. Comput. Simul. 81 (4) (2011), pp. 511–516] using simulation experiments for a wide class of alternatives. The tests possess attractive power properties.     

One‐sample and two‐sample analysis of heterogeneous person–time data in clinical trials

In this paper, we investigate the performance of different parametric and nonparametric approaches for analyzing overdispersed person–time–event rates in the clinical trial setting. We show that the likelihood‐based parametric approach may not maintain the right size for the tested overdispersed person–time–event data. The nonparametric approaches may use an estimator as either the mean of the ratio of number of events over follow‐up time within each subjects or the ratio of the mean of the number of events over the mean follow‐up time in all the subjects. Among these, the ratio of the means is a consistent estimator and can be studied analytically. Asymptotic properties of all estimators were studied through numerical simulations. This research shows that the nonparametric ratio of the mean estimator is to be recommended in analyzing overdispersed person–time data. When sample size is small, some resampling‐based approaches can yield satisfactory results. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Error reduction in density estimation under shape restrictions

For the problems of nonparametric estimation of nonincreasing and symmetric unimodal density functions with bounded supports we determine the projections of estimates onto the convex families of possible parent densities with respect to the weighted integrated squared error. We also describe the method of approximating the analogous projections onto the respective density classes satisfying some general moment conditions. The method of projections reduces the estimation errors for all possible values of observations of a given finite sample size in a uniformly optimal way and provides estimates sharing the properties of the parent densities.     

Kernel Density Estimation with Generalized Binning

We propose kernel density estimators based on prebinned data. We use generalized binning schemes based on the quantiles points of a certain auxiliary distribution function. Therein the uniform distribution corresponds to usual binning. The statistical accuracy of the resulting kernel estimators is studied, i.e. we derive mean squared error results for the closeness of these estimators to both the true function and the kernel estimator based on the original data set. Our results show the influence of the choice of the auxiliary density on the binned kernel estimators and they reveal that non-uniform binning can be worthwhile.     

Bayesian estimation for the Pareto income distribution

The Bayes estimators of the Gini index, the mean income and the proportion of the population living below a prescribed income level are obtained in this paper on the basis of censored income data from a pareto income distribution. The said estimators are obtained under the assumptions of a two-parameter exponential prior distribution and the usual squared error loss function. This work is also extended to the case when the income data are grouped and the exact incomes for the individuals in the population are not available. The method for the assessment of the hyperparameters is also outlined. Finally, the results are generalized for the doubly truncated gamma prior distribution. Now deceased.