Inference on a progressive type I interval-censored truncated normal distribution

In this paper, we consider the problem of making statistical inference for a truncated normal distribution under progressive type I interval censoring. We obtain maximum likelihood estimators of unknown parameters using the expectation-maximization algorithm and in sequel, we also compute corresponding midpoint estimates of parameters. Estimation based on the probability plot method is also considered. Asymptotic confidence intervals of unknown parameters are constructed based on the observed Fisher information matrix. We obtain Bayes estimators of parameters with respect to informative and non-informative prior distributions under squared error and linex loss functions. We compute these estimates using the importance sampling procedure. The highest posterior density intervals of unknown parameters are constructed as well. We present a Monte Carlo simulation study to compare the performance of proposed point and interval estimators. Analysis of a real data set is also performed for illustration purposes. Finally, inspection times and optimal censoring plans based on the expected Fisher information matrix are discussed.     

Toward an integrated Bayesian network approach to measurement error detection and correction

In this article, the quality of data produced by national statistical institutes and by governmental institutions is considered. In particular, the problem of measurement error is analyzed and an integrated Bayesian network decision support system based on non-parametric Bayesian networks is proposed for its detection and correction. Non-parametric Bayesian networks are graphical models expressing dependence structure via bivariate copulas associated to the edges of the graph. The network structure and the misreport probability are estimated using a validation sample. The Bayesian network model is proposed to decide: (i) which records have to be corrected; (ii) the kind and amount of correction to be adopted. The proposed correction procedure is applied to the Banca d’Italia Survey on Household Income and Wealth and, specifically, the bond amounts are analyzed. Finally, the sensitivity of the conditional distribution of the true value random variable given the observed one to different evidence configurations is studied.     

An improved cluster two-stage randomized response model

In this paper, Abdelfatah and Mazloum's (2015) two-stage randomized response model is extended to unequal probability sampling and stratified unequal probability sampling, both with and without replacement. The extended models result in more efficient estimators than Lee et al.'s (2014) estimators of the proportion of the population having a sensitive attribute.     

合同案件民事审判中法官自由裁量权刍议——以对事实的认定为例

合同案件民事审判中法官自由裁量权主要包括举证责任分配的自由裁量,判断证据之证据能力即合法性的自由裁量和适用证明标准的自由裁量。当前,合同案件民事审判中法官自由裁量质量不高且比较混乱,基本没有规则可循。要搞好合同案件民事审判中法官对事实认定的自由裁量,必须在思想和组织上高度重视,加强对事实认定方面在判决书中的说理和公开审判制度,加强监督和对错案的纠正。     

日内知情交易概率测度及事件影响研究

在EKOP模型测度PIN的基础上,通过建立时变交易到达率模型,滚动计算日内知情交易概率,并将PIN测度与事件研究相结合,对比了不同规模公司股票在事件日前后PIN的变化情况。实证结果表明我国股市存在信息泄露情况,尤其是小规模公司股票在公告日前一天知情交易明显增加;前一笔知情交易对当前非知情交易有削弱作用,但对当前知情交易有加强作用,可以进一步解释交易的集簇现象：日内PIN对信息的刻画更加准确,但也发现在公共事件发生后第二天PIN仍会增加,这表明市场上存在信息的学习者,需要对引起PIN增加的原因进行更准确的分析。     

英汉情态助动词语法及语义表达方式的对比

情态助动词是表达情态的重要手段,英语和汉语情态助动词有不同的语法和语义表达形式。根据Huddleston和Palmer关于情态助动词的理论框架,英语和汉语情态助动词被同时纳入否定、倒装、替代和强调四个语法特征进行对比,发现汉语在倒装方面与英语有很大差异,但是在其他三个特点上,均与英语具有共性。然后又将它们纳入意愿、可能和必须三个语义范畴,结合相应的语料对比、分析,发现它们的意义表达形式在三个语义范畴中表现有共性和个性。     

运用核Fisher鉴别分析和MPM分类器的入侵检测

为了提高分类器的正确率和减少训练时间,将特征提取技术与分类算法结合,提出了一种基于核Fisher鉴别分析和最小极大概率机算法的入侵检测算法。利用核Fisher鉴别分析技术提取关键特征,运用最小极大概率机对提取特征后的数据进行分类,采用离线数据集KDDCUP99进行实验。实验结果表明,该算法是可行和有效的,使分类性能和训练时间都得到了提高。     

"非典"时期京渝两地民众社会心理特征比较研究

采用分层抽样的问卷调查方法,对京渝两地的556名民众进行了"非典"疫情中风险认知及其社会心理行为预测指标的研究.结果表明:(1)"非典"期问,两地民众的社会心理总的趋势上具有一致性,他们在风险事件的认知、影响风险认知的信息因素和社会心理顶警指标几方面总体表现是正常和适度的.调查期间政府的防控措施对稳定民众心理起到了重要作用;(2)"非典"期间,处在不同疫情状态下的两地民众的社会心理也存在一些明显的差异.这些差异主要是因所处的不同疫情环境而引起的,而且也仅是程度上的而非性质上的.本调查结果可为我国突发性公共卫生事件的有效防控和民众心理行为的有效琉导提供对策建议,为未来建立我国民众社会心理行为预警系统提供理论和方法依据.     

概率算子“可能”的核心情态语义及其概率赋值手段

"可能"是一个概率模态算子,其核心情态语义特征为[+概率可能]。按照概率模态"概率值的连续标度法","可能"的赋值范围为"0相似文献   

Accelerated test system strength models based on Birnbaum–Saunders distribution: a complete Bayesian analysis and comparison

Several models for studies related to tensile strength of materials are proposed in the literature where the size or length component has been taken to be an important factor for studying the specimens’ failure behaviour. An important model, developed on the basis of cumulative damage approach, is the three-parameter extension of the Birnbaum–Saunders fatigue model that incorporates size of the specimen as an additional variable. This model is a strong competitor of the commonly used Weibull model and stands better than the traditional models, which do not incorporate the size effect. The paper considers two such cumulative damage models, checks their compatibility with a real dataset, compares them with some of the recent toolkits, and finally recommends a model, which appears an appropriate one. Throughout the study is Bayesian based on Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation.