调查患病率反映了真实健康状况吗?——基于社会经济状况影响患病认知的经验分析

基于国家卫生服务调查的汇总数据和CHNS的微观数据,针对中国不同居民群体的患病率进行了研究.研究结果表明,调查患病率反映的是人群认知患病率,而非真实患病率.患病率调查结果会低估社会经济状况较差群体的真实患病率.受户口、收入、医疗保障、教育程度、信息获取能力等社会经济状况因素的影响,社会中低阶层对自身健康状况和患病的认知受到较大制约.这种信息制约不仅低估了当前社会健康的不平等,而且会进一步加剧健康的不平等状况.     

Probability of Exporting Infected Carcasses from Vaccinated Pigs Following a Foot‐and‐Mouth Disease Epidemic

Emergency vaccination is an effective control strategy for foot‐and‐mouth disease (FMD) epidemics in densely populated livestock areas, but results in a six‐month waiting period before exports can be resumed, incurring severe economic consequences for pig exporting countries. In the European Union, a one‐month waiting period has been discussed based on negative test results in a final screening. The objective of this study was to analyze the risk of exporting FMD‐infected pig carcasses from a vaccinated area: (1) directly after final screening and (2) after a six‐month waiting period. A risk model has been developed to estimate the probability that a processed carcass was derived from an FMD‐infected pig (P_carc). Key variables were herd prevalence (P_H), within‐herd prevalence (P_A), and the probability of detection at slaughter (P_SL). P_H and P_A were estimated using Bayesian inference under the assumption that, despite all negative test results, ≥1 infected pigs were present. Model calculations indicated that P_carc was on average 2.0 × 10^?5 directly after final screening, and 1.7 × 10^?5 after a six‐month waiting period. Therefore, the additional waiting time did not substantially reduce P_carc. The estimated values were worst‐case scenarios because only viraemic pigs pose a risk for disease transmission, while seropositive pigs do not. The risk of exporting FMD via pig carcasses from a vaccinated area can further be reduced by heat treatment of pork and/or by excluding high‐risk pork products from export.     

Cleveland 20 years on: what have we learned about intervening in child sexual abuse?

This is the first of two linked papers. It examines the main changes in approach to child sexual abuse that have occurred since the events in Cleveland 20 years ago. Comparison between estimated prevalence rates and registrations for sexual abuse suggests that we are aware of only the tip of the iceberg. It is argued that in many cases uncertainty may have to be accepted, and that protection may be better achieved through a protective parent than through the child protection system. Clinical examples of cases presenting to a specialist child and adolescent mental health service are given. It is argued that, although society is now more willing to recognise the existence of child sexual abuse and professionals are better at dealing with families, outcomes for this group of children are not much improved. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Dynamic Analysis of Recurrent Event Data with Missing Observations, with Application to Infant Diarrhoea in Brazil

Abstract.  This paper examines and applies methods for modelling longitudinal binary data subject to both intermittent missingness and dropout. The paper is based around the analysis of data from a study into the health impact of a sanitation programme carried out in Salvador, Brazil. Our objective was to investigate risk factors associated with incidence and prevalence of diarrhoea in children aged up to 3 years old. In total, 926 children were followed up at home twice a week from October 2000 to January 2002 and for each child daily occurrence of diarrhoea was recorded. A challenging factor in analysing these data is the presence of between-subject heterogeneity not explained by known risk factors, combined with significant loss of observed data through either intermittent missingness (average of 78 days per child) or dropout (21% of children). We discuss modelling strategies and show the advantages of taking an event history approach with an additive discrete time regression model.     

高血压、肥胖、血脂紊乱和糖耐量异常在不同年龄段人群中分布的基线调查：社区人群心脑血管事件前瞻性研究系列之五

目的调查高血压、肥胖、血脂紊乱和糖耐量异常在南宁市不同年龄段人群中分布的基线数据。方法2004年在南宁市随机抽取两个社区居民1251名，进行人群流行病学横断面调查。测量血糖、血压、血脂等指标，并按国际或国内常用诊断标准确定高血压、肥胖、血脂紊乱和糖耐量异常患者。结果①不同年龄段人群中高血压、肥胖、血脂紊乱和糖耐量异常患病率70岁以前呈随龄增长趋势，大干70岁年龄组患病率有所下降。②腹型肥胖、高血糖、高血压、高TC、高TG、LDL-C、低HDL—C标化患病率分别为：男性31．3％，22．7％，27．5％，35.2％，40．8％，4．8％，15．9％，女性42．5％，19．0％，30．0％，36．4％，31.3％，23．2％，19.3％。性别间比较，高血压患病率女性高于男性（P=-0．002）；腹型肥胖、低HDL-C的患病率女性均显著高于男性（P=0．0001）。结论南宁市不同年龄段人群中高血压、肥胖、血脂紊乱和糖耐量异常分布的基线率高，有随龄增长变化的趋势，应采取综合性预防措施以降低患病率。     

On the Generic (Im)Possibility of Full Surplus Extraction in Mechanism Design

A number of studies, most notably Crémer and McLean (1985, 1988), have shown that in generic type spaces that admit a common prior and are of a fixed finite size, an uninformed seller can design mechanisms that extract all the surplus from privately informed bidders. We show that this result hinges on the nonconvexity of such a family of priors. When the ambient family of priors is convex, generic priors do not allow for full surplus extraction provided that for at least one prior in this family, players' beliefs about other players' types do not pin down the players' own preferences. In particular, full surplus extraction is generically impossible in finite type spaces with a common prior. Similarly, generic priors on the universal type space do not allow for full surplus extraction.     

Prevalence of mental health problems among children placed in out-of-home care in Denmark

This paper concerns the prevalence of mental health problems among children in family foster and residential care within a Danish context. All children, born in Denmark in 1995, who are or formerly have been placed in out-of-home care ( n = 1072), are compared with a group of vulnerable children of the same age, subjected to child protection interventions but living at home ( n = 1457, referred to as the 'in home care children'), and to all contemporaries who are not child protection clients ( n = 71 321, referred to as the 'non-welfare children'). Prevalence data are established on the basis of national administrative register data, including data on psychiatric diagnoses of the children, and on survey data scoring children in out-of-home care, in home care children, and non-welfare children by means of the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire (SDQ). Results show that 20% of children in out-of-home care have at least one psychiatric diagnosis compared to 3% of the non-welfare children. Almost half of the children in care (48%) are, furthermore, scored within the abnormal range of SDQ, compared to 5% of the non-welfare children.     

The SOGS-RA vs. the MAGS-7: Prevalence Estimates and Classification Congruence

The purpose of this study was to compare the prevalence rate estimates and congruence in classification status derived from two popular measures of adolescent gambling (SOGS-RA and MAGS-7). Adolescents from three states (Alabama, Mississippi, and Oregon) completed an anonymous questionnaire ( n =1846 high school students total). Results indicate that the prevalence of probable adolescent pathological gambling varied both as a function of instrument and cut-off point utilized for classification (range 1.7%-8.2%). Classification groups (non-problem, at-risk, and problem gamblers) generated by both instruments were found to be associated with reports of gambling frequency, amount of money lost in one gambling occasion, and parental gambling problems. However, concern was raised because the MAGS-7 and the SOGS-RA had little congruence in their three-group classification decisions for specific individuals (e.g., only 20.5% agreement for problem gamblers). To improve clinical utility, an empirical case was made for using the SOGS-RA to generate a fourth group of adolescent gamblers, which we labeled "probable pathological gamblers" (SOGS-RA > or = 6). This group was differentiated from the remaining gambling groups on all the validity indices. The implications and limitations of these findings, as well as future directions, are discussed.     

体育消费行为之流行与选择的探讨

从社会学和社会心理学的角度出发,对体育消费行为及其流行的规模性、新颖性、时期性,流行的内在条件和社会条件,体育消费行为选择的动因、选择规律予以阐述,旨在为我国体育产业的发展提供理论依据,对全民健身运动的开展有一定的积极意义。     

单中心食管胃结合部腺癌发病情况11年变化趋势

目的:研究食管胃结合部腺癌(adenocarcinoma of the esophagogastric junction,AEG)发病情况的变化趋势?方法:回顾分析2001年1月~2011年12月南京医科大学第一附属医院收治的4 685例胃癌病例,其中AEG1 824例,非食管胃结合部腺癌(non-esophagogastric junction adenocarcinoma,NEGA)2 861例?研究AEG在胃癌中所占比例变化趋势?早期食管胃结合部腺癌(early adenocarcinoma of esophagogastric junction,EAEG)检出率变化趋势?AEG 性别年龄分布及比较AEG和NEGA患者发病年龄和性别比的差异?结果:该中心11年来AEG在胃癌中所占比例无明显变化;2007~2011年EAEG的检出率为12.23%(135/1 104),2001~2006年为8.47%(61/720),前者显著高于后者(P = 0.013);AEG患者平均发病年龄以及男女性别比均显著高于NEGA患者[(62.7 ± 9.5)岁 vs (59.1 ± 12.7)岁,P < 0.001;1 434∶390 vs 1 990∶871,P < 0.001)]?结论:AEG在胃癌中所占比例无明显增高;近5年EAEG检出率显著增高;AEG好发于男性老年患者?