The prevalence and nature of abuse and neglect in children under four: a national survey

This paper reports the results from a Danish national survey of child abuse and neglect. Data were obtained by a written questionnaire sent to all home health visitors. All newborn Danish children receive visits by a home health visitor several times during their first year of life. For children in need of special care for social reasons the visits may continue until school age (at 6 or 7 years). The questionnaire included four checklists of signs of abuse and neglect. The home health visitors were asked to record what they had actually observed visiting the children in their homes. Eighty‐three per cent (covering about 80% of all newborns) answered the questionnaire. The objective was to establish a scientific based framework that could be used to guide preventive efforts. Ten per cent of all children under 1 year of age may be characterized as children in need of special care for social reasons, the most frequent single reason being reliance on social assistance, alcohol abuse or violence against the mother. A minimum of 4% of infants are subjected to broadly defined abuse or neglect from one or more of the four categories: physical abuse, physical neglect, emotional abuse and emotional neglect, physical and emotional neglect being the most frequent and physical maltreatment the most rare. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Non-stationary partition modeling of geostatistical data for malaria risk mapping

The most common assumption in geostatistical modeling of malaria is stationarity, that is spatial correlation is a function of the separation vector between locations. However, local factors (environmental or human-related activities) may influence geographical dependence in malaria transmission differently at different locations, introducing non-stationarity. Ignoring this characteristic in malaria spatial modeling may lead to inaccurate estimates of the standard errors for both the covariate effects and the predictions. In this paper, a model based on random Voronoi tessellation that takes into account non-stationarity was developed. In particular, the spatial domain was partitioned into sub-regions (tiles), a stationary spatial process was assumed within each tile and between-tile correlation was taken into account. The number and configuration of the sub-regions are treated as random parameters in the model and inference is made using reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation. This methodology was applied to analyze malaria survey data from Mali and to produce a country-level smooth map of malaria risk.     

Premarital first births: The influence of the timing of sexual onset versus post-onset risks in the United States

Motivated by long-standing debates between abstinence proponents and sceptics, we examine how socio-economic factors influence premarital first births via: (i) age at first sexual intercourse and (ii) the risk of a premarital first birth following the onset of sexual activity. Factors associated with an earlier age at first intercourse will imply more premarital first births owing to increased exposure to risk, but many of these same factors will also be associated with higher risks of a premarital first birth following onset. Our analyses confirm previous findings that women from disadvantaged backgrounds are younger at first intercourse and have higher premarital first-birth risks than women from more advantaged backgrounds. However, differences in onset timing have a strikingly smaller influence on premarital first-birth probabilities than do differences in post-onset risks. Our findings thus suggest that premarital first births result primarily from differences in post-onset risk behaviours as opposed to differences in onset timing.     

Between a ROC and a hard place: Teaching prevalence plots to understand real world biomarker performance in the clinic

The Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve and the Area Under the Curve (AUC) of the ROC curve are widely used in discovery to compare the performance of diagnostic and prognostic assays. The ROC curve has the advantage that it is independent of disease prevalence. However, in this note, we remind scientists and clinicians that the performance of an assay upon translation to the clinic is critically dependent upon that very same prevalence. Without an understanding of prevalence in the test population, even robust bioassays with excellent ROC characteristics may perform poorly in the clinic. While the exact prevalence in the target population is not always known, simple plots of candidate assay performance as a function of prevalence rate give a better understanding of the likely real‐world performance and a greater understanding of the likely impact of variation in that prevalence on translation to the clinic.     

新诗贯宇宙--"文章四友"近体诗的体制建设与推普之功

初唐诗人"文章四友"准确地把握了其时诗歌形式格律化的倾向,因此,他们的诗歌提供了关于格律创制方面大量有价值的信息.在当时特定的政治情势、文化背景下,"文章四友"以其在文坛上的优越地位,在近体诗的普及进程中发挥了很好的作用.     

Probability of Exporting Infected Carcasses from Vaccinated Pigs Following a Foot‐and‐Mouth Disease Epidemic

Emergency vaccination is an effective control strategy for foot‐and‐mouth disease (FMD) epidemics in densely populated livestock areas, but results in a six‐month waiting period before exports can be resumed, incurring severe economic consequences for pig exporting countries. In the European Union, a one‐month waiting period has been discussed based on negative test results in a final screening. The objective of this study was to analyze the risk of exporting FMD‐infected pig carcasses from a vaccinated area: (1) directly after final screening and (2) after a six‐month waiting period. A risk model has been developed to estimate the probability that a processed carcass was derived from an FMD‐infected pig (P_carc). Key variables were herd prevalence (P_H), within‐herd prevalence (P_A), and the probability of detection at slaughter (P_SL). P_H and P_A were estimated using Bayesian inference under the assumption that, despite all negative test results, ≥1 infected pigs were present. Model calculations indicated that P_carc was on average 2.0 × 10^?5 directly after final screening, and 1.7 × 10^?5 after a six‐month waiting period. Therefore, the additional waiting time did not substantially reduce P_carc. The estimated values were worst‐case scenarios because only viraemic pigs pose a risk for disease transmission, while seropositive pigs do not. The risk of exporting FMD via pig carcasses from a vaccinated area can further be reduced by heat treatment of pork and/or by excluding high‐risk pork products from export.     

Cleveland 20 years on: what have we learned about intervening in child sexual abuse?

This is the first of two linked papers. It examines the main changes in approach to child sexual abuse that have occurred since the events in Cleveland 20 years ago. Comparison between estimated prevalence rates and registrations for sexual abuse suggests that we are aware of only the tip of the iceberg. It is argued that in many cases uncertainty may have to be accepted, and that protection may be better achieved through a protective parent than through the child protection system. Clinical examples of cases presenting to a specialist child and adolescent mental health service are given. It is argued that, although society is now more willing to recognise the existence of child sexual abuse and professionals are better at dealing with families, outcomes for this group of children are not much improved. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Dynamic Analysis of Recurrent Event Data with Missing Observations, with Application to Infant Diarrhoea in Brazil

Abstract.  This paper examines and applies methods for modelling longitudinal binary data subject to both intermittent missingness and dropout. The paper is based around the analysis of data from a study into the health impact of a sanitation programme carried out in Salvador, Brazil. Our objective was to investigate risk factors associated with incidence and prevalence of diarrhoea in children aged up to 3 years old. In total, 926 children were followed up at home twice a week from October 2000 to January 2002 and for each child daily occurrence of diarrhoea was recorded. A challenging factor in analysing these data is the presence of between-subject heterogeneity not explained by known risk factors, combined with significant loss of observed data through either intermittent missingness (average of 78 days per child) or dropout (21% of children). We discuss modelling strategies and show the advantages of taking an event history approach with an additive discrete time regression model.     

高血压、肥胖、血脂紊乱和糖耐量异常在不同年龄段人群中分布的基线调查：社区人群心脑血管事件前瞻性研究系列之五

目的调查高血压、肥胖、血脂紊乱和糖耐量异常在南宁市不同年龄段人群中分布的基线数据。方法2004年在南宁市随机抽取两个社区居民1251名，进行人群流行病学横断面调查。测量血糖、血压、血脂等指标，并按国际或国内常用诊断标准确定高血压、肥胖、血脂紊乱和糖耐量异常患者。结果①不同年龄段人群中高血压、肥胖、血脂紊乱和糖耐量异常患病率70岁以前呈随龄增长趋势，大干70岁年龄组患病率有所下降。②腹型肥胖、高血糖、高血压、高TC、高TG、LDL-C、低HDL—C标化患病率分别为：男性31．3％，22．7％，27．5％，35.2％，40．8％，4．8％，15．9％，女性42．5％，19．0％，30．0％，36．4％，31.3％，23．2％，19.3％。性别间比较，高血压患病率女性高于男性（P=-0．002）；腹型肥胖、低HDL-C的患病率女性均显著高于男性（P=0．0001）。结论南宁市不同年龄段人群中高血压、肥胖、血脂紊乱和糖耐量异常分布的基线率高，有随龄增长变化的趋势，应采取综合性预防措施以降低患病率。     

Prevalence of mental health problems among children placed in out-of-home care in Denmark

This paper concerns the prevalence of mental health problems among children in family foster and residential care within a Danish context. All children, born in Denmark in 1995, who are or formerly have been placed in out-of-home care ( n = 1072), are compared with a group of vulnerable children of the same age, subjected to child protection interventions but living at home ( n = 1457, referred to as the 'in home care children'), and to all contemporaries who are not child protection clients ( n = 71 321, referred to as the 'non-welfare children'). Prevalence data are established on the basis of national administrative register data, including data on psychiatric diagnoses of the children, and on survey data scoring children in out-of-home care, in home care children, and non-welfare children by means of the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire (SDQ). Results show that 20% of children in out-of-home care have at least one psychiatric diagnosis compared to 3% of the non-welfare children. Almost half of the children in care (48%) are, furthermore, scored within the abnormal range of SDQ, compared to 5% of the non-welfare children.