A matching prior for extreme quantile estimation of the generalized Pareto distribution

Extreme quantile estimation plays an important role in risk management and environmental statistics among other applications. A popular method is the peaks-over-threshold (POT) model that approximate the distribution of excesses over a high threshold through generalized Pareto distribution (GPD). Motivated by a practical financial risk management problem, we look for an appropriate prior choice for Bayesian estimation of the GPD parameters that results in better quantile estimation. Specifically, we propose a noninformative matching prior for the parameters of a GPD so that a specific quantile of the Bayesian predictive distribution matches the true quantile in the sense of Datta et al. (2000).     

Prior elicitation, variable selection and Bayesian computation for logistic regression models

Bayesian selection of variables is often difficult to carry out because of the challenge in specifying prior distributions for the regression parameters for all possible models, specifying a prior distribution on the model space and computations. We address these three issues for the logistic regression model. For the first, we propose an informative prior distribution for variable selection. Several theoretical and computational properties of the prior are derived and illustrated with several examples. For the second, we propose a method for specifying an informative prior on the model space, and for the third we propose novel methods for computing the marginal distribution of the data. The new computational algorithms only require Gibbs samples from the full model to facilitate the computation of the prior and posterior model probabilities for all possible models. Several properties of the algorithms are also derived. The prior specification for the first challenge focuses on the observables in that the elicitation is based on a prior prediction y ₀ for the response vector and a quantity a ₀ quantifying the uncertainty in y ₀. Then, y ₀ and a ₀ are used to specify a prior for the regression coefficients semi-automatically. Examples using real data are given to demonstrate the methodology.     

Bayesian estimation and prediction for some life distributions based on record values

Some statistical data are most easily accessed in terms of record values. Examples include meteorology, hydrology and athletic events. Also, there are a number of industrial situations where experimental outcomes are a sequence of record-breaking observations. In this paper, Bayesian estimation for the two parameters of some life distributions, including Exponential, Weibull, Pareto and Burr type XII, are obtained based on upper record values. Prediction, either point or interval, for future upper record values is also presented from a Bayesian view point. Some of the non-Bayesian results can be achieved as limiting cases from our results. Numerical computations are given to illustrate the results.     

论夏商周“乐”重于“礼”及其现实意义

辨析德、智、体、美四育并举的理论意义,须从文化根源上厘清"美"在文化源头和发展轨迹中的重要地位。甲骨文的"文"就是审美,"文"和"化"合起来,就是"审美教育";礼乐文化初期不是礼先于乐,礼孕育乐,而是恰恰相反;在夏商周三代,主持教育的大司乐必须通晓音律。其社会教育和学校教育中,乐教的分量是礼教决不能与之相比拟的。"乐"重于"礼"特点在古籍文献中也有丰富的佐证……三代美育显要地位和作用说明,重视美育是中国文化源头的特色;加强和提升美育地位是坚持中国文化特色的需要。     

物权和债权的优先效力需重新认识

物权的优先效力仅仅只是物权内部的优先效力。可以并存的物权以时间先后确定优先效力;限制物权优先于所有权;登记物权优先于未登记的物权;以占有为要件的物权优先于不以占有为要件的物权。债权内部也有优先效力问题。担保之债优先于独立之债;主债优先于从债;人身之债优先于财产之债。论证物权对债权有无优先效力,要在法理、逻辑和实践上都应讲得通。物权对债权并无优先效力。租赁(改称赁权)应是用益物权。     

从欧共体法的特征看欧盟主体资格的演进

欧盟成立前欧共体立法已具备三个特性,即直接效力原则、优先原则及先占原则,在欧盟成立后,其立法又具有了新的特性即从属原则。论述了欧盟立法的上述特性,试图证明欧盟主体资格演进的格局是从一体化组织向联盟国家迈进。     

关于特种债权之物权担保的否定性思考——兼论特种债权的优先效力

特种债权是指基于公法产生或者具有公法性质的一类债权债务关系,主要有税收、司法费用、劳动工资等.并不存在一个独立的具有担保物权性质的优先权,优先权担保特种债权的实现是一个伪命题.特种债权本身具有优先效力,其实现本质上属于债权法、程序法而非物权法的范畴.     

世纪之交的道家研究——读《中国老学史》与《近现代的先秦道家研究》

老子研究自 2 0世纪以来素称显学 ,但尚无真正系统的老子学术史 ,然而《中国老学史》读后 ,却不能不使人生叹。《近现代的先秦道家研究》虽非专门的老子学说史 ,见解却远出前书之上 ,对于 2 1世纪道家研究 ,具有重要的点醒作用     

现有技术抗辩的对比标准

现有技术抗辩是指,被控侵权人针对专利权人的侵权指控,可以提出自己使用的技术是现有技术,以对抗权利人的侵权指控进而主张不侵犯权利人专利权的行为。学者们提出的对比标准学说均存在一定的问题。新颖性判断与相同侵权之间不存在合乎逻辑的一致性,创造性与等同侵权在主观上、主体上是相同的,厘清这些关系是构建对比标准的基础。现有技术抗辩应该采纳等同的标准,它具有法理基础、现实依据和立法依据。     

基于神经反射传入过程探释思想政治教育内化机制

生理学中的神经反射传入过程与思想政治教育内化机制在结构上具有同构性、在工作原理上具有共通性。探释神经反射传入过程对思想政治教育内化机制的启悟：前阶段,兼顾受教育者的心理状况、文化层次、个人经历、情商智商、家庭环境的客观情况,尊重和避免受教育者思想突触在较钝性、较温和、较粗糙的思想政治教育环境中容易疲劳特性;后阶段,重视受教育者的思想中枢传播过程和思想中枢处理过程的工作特点,避免受教育者中断对有益的思想政治教育的内化,同时促进受教育者拒绝对有害的思想政治教育的内化。