Statistical models for the analysis of controlled trials on acute migraine

Specific efficacy criteria were defined by the International Headache Society for controlled clinical trials on acute migraine. They are derived from the pain profile and the timing of rescue medication intake. We present a methodology to improve the analysis of such trials. Instead of analysing each endpoint separately, we model the joint distribution and derive success rates in any criteria as predictions. We use cumulative regression models for each response at a time and a multivariate normal copula to model the dependence between responses. Parameters are estimated using maximum likelihood. Benefits of the method include a reduction in the number of tests performed and an increase in their power. The method is well suited to dose–response trials from which predictions can be used to select doses and optimize the design of subsequent trials. More generally, our method permits a very flexible modelling of longitudinal series of ordinal data. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

河南省流动人口体育健身现状及影响因素实证分析

本文通过对河南省635名流动人口的问卷调查的统计分析发现,只有18.2%的流动人口有体育健身的习惯,通过构建二值选择模型进行实证后得出：河南省流动人口的体育健身行为受教育程度、收入水平、幸福感、长期居留意愿、居住类型、孩子数、日工作时数和参保状况的影响显著,而性别、年龄、户口性质等因素没有通过显著性检验。根据实证分析结果,提出了加强和改善流动人口体育健身状况的建议和对策。     

信息获取渠道对农户绿色防控技术采纳行为的影响

利用775个蔬菜种植户的实证数据,采用有序Probit模型、分组回归法、Heck-Probit模型以及双变量Probit模型,以生物防治技术和物理防治技术采纳情况表征农户绿色防控技术采纳行为,实证分析信息获取渠道对农户绿色防控技术采纳行为的影响以及信任及其不同维度的调节效应,并进行稳健性检验和异质性分析。研究发现：(1)组织渠道、人际渠道、现代媒介渠道对农户绿色防控技术采纳行为具有显著正向影响,传统媒介渠道的影响不显著。(2)组织渠道、人际渠道对农户绿色防控技术采纳决策具有积极促进作用,现代媒介渠道对农户绿色防控技术采纳程度具有正向激励作用。(3)信任在人际渠道和现代媒介渠道对农户绿色防控技术采纳行为的影响中均发挥调节作用,而对组织渠道的调节效应不显著。此外,信息信任和人际信任的调节效应存在差异。(4)人际渠道和现代媒介渠道分别对生物防治技术和物理防治技术采纳决策发挥显著促进作用,组织渠道对上述两种技术采纳决策均具有显著正向影响。据此,提出政府应重视不同信息获取渠道的差异化影响,为农户技术采纳提供多种有效的信息传播交流方式等政策建议。     

欠发达地区农村金融资源借贷需求的影响因素分析

我们在对新疆12地(州)288个农户进行问卷调查的基础上,采用Probit模型对欠发达地区农户金融资源需求的影响因素进行了计量分析.分析表明:农户文化程度越低,越倾向于向亲戚朋友借钱;文化程度越高,越倾向于向银行贷款.从事种植业与外出务工的农户更倾向于向亲戚朋友、信用社借钱;而从事非农业生产的农户更倾向于向银行贷款.我们认为,信用社与银行借款难度大的农户更倾向于向亲戚朋友借钱,而觉得贷款容易的农户多向农村信用社贷款,没有贷款经历的农户初次贷款多去银行.     

‘He wants,I don't’: females' contrasting attitude about fertility intentions for a second child

Thanks to the use of household-level micro-data from the ‘Family and Social Subjects’ survey carried out by the Italian National Statistical Office in 2003, this paper aims at understanding the determinants of a woman's contrasting attitude towards her partner's positive intention for another child considering the bargaining process literature.

The econometric analysis is based on sample selection models that allow the study of this issue considering the probability of recording a couple's disagreement on higher-order fertility. The analysis finds that when within the couple the female partner is more educated, she disagrees less with her partner's positive intention for a second child. If we deal with the job-related features, the probability that the female contrasts her partner's positive fertility intention is higher when she is unemployed, when she is employed but she experiences a lack of provision of child-care, and if she perceives that another child might jeopardize her career.

The findings are coherent with the assumption that a higher consistency between the individual's and the couple's fertility intentions may be achieved; the presence of a rigid labour-market and the lack of public child-care provision and of public policies should contribute to explaining the problems in reconciling family and working life.     

Regression spline bivariate probit models: A practical approach to testing for exogeneity

Bivariate probit models can deal with a problem usually known as endogeneity. This issue is likely to arise in observational studies when confounders are unobserved. We are concerned with testing the hypothesis of exogeneity (or absence of endogeneity) when using regression spline recursive and sample selection bivariate probit models. Likelihood ratio and gradient tests are discussed in this context and their empirical properties investigated and compared with those of the Lagrange multiplier and Wald tests through a Monte Carlo study. The tests are illustrated using two datasets in which the hypothesis of exogeneity needs to be tested.     

Patterns of consent: evidence from a general household survey

Summary.  We analyse patterns of consent and consent bias in the context of a large general household survey, the 'Improving survey measurement of income and employment' survey, also addressing issues that arise when there are multiple consent questions. A multivariate probit regression model for four binary outcomes with two incidental truncations is used. We show that there are biases in consent to data linkage with benefit and tax credit administrative records that are held by the Department for Work and Pensions, and with wage and employment data held by employers. There are also biases in respondents' willingness and ability to supply their national insurance number. The biases differ according to the question that is considered. We also show that modelling questions on consent independently rather than jointly may lead to misleading inferences about consent bias. A positive correlation between unobservable individual factors affecting consent to Department for Work and Pensions record linkage and consent to employer record linkage is suggestive of a latent individual consent propensity.     

Demographic composition of farm households and its effect on time allocation

The decisions of farmers to work on or off the farm depend in part on household composition and the participation patterns of other family members. This is because of the differential income effects resulting from the household's joint budget constraint and the time and money costs imposed by different household members, and because of the substitutability or complementarity between the farm labor inputs of different household members. This paper demonstrates this point by estimating a joint labor participation model of farm operators and their spouses, in which participation decisions are conditioned on household composition. The model is estimated as a multivariate probit model with fixed effects, by quasi maximum likelihood methods. The results are consistent with the hypotheses that the time costs imposed on the household by small children are larger than the money costs; that the relative importance of time costs is decreasing as children grow up; and that the farm labor inputs of older children are complements to the couple's farm labor inputs but those of prime-age adults are substitutes. JEL classification: J22, J43An earlier version of this paper was presented at the 1994 meeting of the European Society for Population Economics, Tilburg, The Netherlands. This research relies in part on my Ph.D. dissertation at the University of Chicago. I am grateful to Gary Becker, Joe Hotz, Yair Mundlak, Kevin Murphy, and Yoram Weiss for their useful suggestions and guidance. The research was completed while I was visiting at the University of Maryland. I thank the Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics and the Maryland Agricultural Experiment Station for financial support. Specific constructive comments were also made by Paul Schultz, John Ermisch, and anonymous referees. Finally, I express my gratitude to the staff of the Central Bureau of Statistics in Israel, especially Haim Regev and Meir Rothchild, for providing the data used here. Responsibility for the contents of this paper remains exclusively mine.Responsible editor: John F. Ermisch     

“Parents and Children Talk: English Language Proficiency within Immigrant Families”

This paper extends the analysis of the acquisition of destination language proficiency among immigrants by explicitly incorporating interactions among family members—mother, father and children. Single equation, bivariate, and four-equation (multivariate) probit analyses are employed. Immigrant English language skills are greater the younger the age at migration, the longer the duration of residence, the higher the level of education, and for immigrants not from Asia. Large positive correlations in the unmeasured determinants of proficiency exist between spouses, between siblings, and between parents and children, although the latter relationship is stronger for the mother. The findings imply that learning takes place within the household.     

企业资产证券化与财务特征的关系研究

文章选取了沪市和深市A股的11家进行过资产证券化的企业,做为对比,同时选出与之规模相对应的22家未进行过资产证券化的企业,共33家的2007-2014年的财务数据,再对这个微观面板数据采用Probit回归的方法来进行实证分析。实证表明:规模越小、流动负债越多的企业更加倾向于进行资产证券化。