Estimation and inference for generalized semi-varying coefficient models

This paper is concerned with the estimation and inference in generalized semi-varying coefficient models. An orthogonal projection local quasi-likelihood estimation is investigated, which can easily be used to estimate the model parametric and nonparametric parts. Then an empirical likelihood logarithmic approach to construct the confidence regions/intervals of the nonparametric parts is developed. Under some mild conditions, the asymptotic properties of the resulting estimators are studied explicitly, respectively. Some simulation studies are carried out to examine the finite sample performance of the proposed methods. Finally, the methodologies are illustrated by a real data set.     

Sharp bounds for the mean of the total time on test for distributions with increasing generalized failure rate

The results of this paper are the continuation of the research presented by Bieniek [Optimal bounds for the mean of the total time on test for distributions with decreasing generalized failure rate. Statistics. 2016;50:1206–1220]. We consider the remaining total time on test after a given failure in a life test experiment. We derive sharp upper bounds on the mean of the total time on test optimal in the class of distributions with increasing generalized failure rate with respect to generalized Pareto distributions. Specific results are obtained for distributions with increasing density and increasing failure rate. We also provide exemplary numerical values of the obtained bounds and we compare them with the corresponding bounds for distributions with decreasing generalized failure rate.     

关于赛珍珠个人和笔下的问题婚姻的札记或西方主义入门

在民国时期的南京期间,赛珍珠和约翰·洛辛·布克共同经历不幸福的婚姻,照顾残障女儿,并从事文学事业。她在这个时期的小说和回忆录里,开始描写一系列婚姻,对有别于西方和她的传教士家庭的中国的性道德观念的认知方式在《结发妻及其他故事》中的许多作品都直接和间接地有所反映,她处理了跨文化婚姻不美满的问题,有时则通过再现中国妇女的困境来投射她对自己婚姻的关切。     

基于支持向量机模型的北京市能源需求预测研究

北京市能源需求系统具有非线性、历史数据较少而影响因素众多等复杂特征, 而支持向量机模型在解决小样本、非线性及高维模式识别问题方面具有突出优势。为此, 引入支持向量机模型对北京市1978-2010年能源需求进行建模, 并据此对2012-2020年能源需求量进行预测。结果表明:支持向量机模型能有效拟合北京市能源需求系统的复杂变化趋势, 比其他传统方法有更高的预测精度。研究发现, 2012-2020年北京市能源需求量逐年增加, 年均增速2.75%;另外, 北京市能源需求的增速在“十三五”期间会比“十二五”期间略有趋缓。     

前提的类型特征、激活模式以及日语语句意义的理解

前提是句子语义得以形成的必要条件．也是语句意义的一种,包涵语义前提和语用前提两类。语义前提多为隐含在语句之中通过推论可以解读的意义,而语用前提则多为言外之意多通过语境和推论读取。本文认为,前提的认知和理解既受到投射的影响也与激活密不可分．而激活更是我们从复数个前提中读取其中之一并将解读导向理解的关键因素。     

Demographic transition in sub-Saharan Africa: How big will the economic dividend be?

In mid-demographic-transition, many Asian countries enjoyed a large demographic ‘dividend’: extra economic growth owing to falling dependant/workforce ratios, or slower natural increase, or both. We estimate the dividend, 1985–2025, in sub-Saharan Africa and its populous countries. Dependency and natural increase peaked around 1985, 20 years after Asia. The UN projects an acceleration of the subsequent slow falls but disregards slowish declines in young-age mortality and thus, we argue, overestimates future fertility decline. Even if one accepts their projection, arithmetical and econometric evidence suggests an annual, if not total, dividend well below Asia's. The dividend arises more from falling dependency than reduced natural increase, and could be increased by accelerating the fertility decline (e.g., by reducing young-age mortality) or by employing a larger workforce productively. Any dividend from transition apart, low saving in much of Africa (unlike Asia) means that, given likely natural increase, current consumption per person is unsustainable because it depletes capital per person.     

Intrinsically Dynamic Multistate Models

Multistate life table models, which follow persons through more than one living state, have found increasing use in demographic analyses. Multistate stable populations, however, are infrequently used because the constant rate assumption is quite strong and such populations can take centuries to approach stability. Dynamic models, that is models where the rates can change over time, are examined to derive a new solution for the size and composition of a multistate population in terms of the sequence of underlying population projection matrices (PPMs). Constraints on the subordinate eigenvalues and the subordinate eigenvectors of the time-varying PPMs produce a model population that grows according to the dominant eigenvalues of each time-specific PPM and has a state composition that depends only on the most recent PPM. The two living state model is examined in detail, relationships between the PPM elements and the size and composition of the model are explored, and two illustrative applications of the model are presented.     

U.S. Family Household Momentum and Dynamics: An Extension and Application of the ProFamy Method

The classic headship-rate method for demographic projections of households is not linked to demographic rates, projects a few household types without size, and does not deal with household members other than heads. By comparison, the ProFamy method uses demographic rates as input and projects more detailed household types, sizes, and living arrangements for all members of the population. Tests of projections from 1990 to 2000 using ProFamy and based on observed U.S. demographic rates before 1991 show that discrepancies between our projections and census observations in 2000 are reasonably small, validating the new method. Using data from national surveys and vital statistics, census microfiles, and the ProFamy method, we prepare projections of U.S. households from 2000 to 2050. Medium projections as well as projections based on smaller and larger family scenarios with corresponding combinations of assumptions of marriage/union formation and dissolution, fertility, mortality, and international migration are performed to analyze future trends of U.S. households and their possible higher and lower bounds, as well as enormous racial differentials. To our knowledge, the household projections reported in this article are the first to have found empirical evidence of family household momentum and to have provided informative low and high bounds of various indices of projected future households and living arrangements distributions based on possible changes in demographic parameters.     

情态操作词的值的变化及意义

对于情态操作词的值的体现传统语法的解释是规范性的,现代语言学虽然提出了不同意见但未形成系统的理论.针对情态操作词的值在政治演讲、劝说文两种语类中的使用,说明变化是意义生成的手段,使得语类之间有相同和不同,也使得同一语类里有变化,这种变化反映了意义是选择系统这一特征.     

基于复杂网络和语言信息的交互式大规模群体评价方法

针对现有基于语言信息的交互式群体评价方法大多仅适用于中小规模群体的情况,提出一种新的基于复杂网络和语言信息的交互式大规模群体评价方法。首先,将评价者视为网络节点,并依据节点之间的距离构建复杂网络;其次,设计节点紧密度和子群紧密度,并确定节点权重和子群权重;再次,定义群体稳定性指标和群体满意度指标,并以此来判断交互终止和确定阶段权重;最后,在节点密度算子和节点加权算子的基础上,分别对单轮群体意见和多轮评价结果进行集结。文末通过一个实际例子验证了所提方法的有效性与合理性。实例分析表明,该方法能够较为全面、准确地集结交互式大规模群体评价意见,且其结果的满意度亦较为理想。