音乐文化的民族性与世界性

对很多人来讲,民间、民族音乐是一个对应民族文化与原生文化环境,既亲近又遥远的精神世界;一个奇异、欢乐、充满天真而又迷人的人天合一、浪漫自由的与生活合一的精神时空;在其简易、不易、变易的历史长河中,实用与审美并存,显示出质朴天真、充满活力的精神特质,千百年来陪伴着各民族同胞在自然之苦的生态环境中挣扎、平衡、和谐、生发;承载着生活与精神的协调,表现着人们的文化心理、民族性格和审美理想;在生活中鼓舞着生存和创造的勇气与力量,也给人们带来圆满的笑声、意趣和希望。     

Time series models with asymmetric Laplace innovations

We propose autoregressive moving average (ARMA) and generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (GARCH) models driven by asymmetric Laplace (AL) noise. The AL distribution plays, in the geometric-stable class, the analogous role played by the normal in the alpha-stable class, and has shown promise in the modelling of certain types of financial and engineering data. In the case of an ARMA model we derive the marginal distribution of the process, as well as its bivariate distribution when separated by a finite number of lags. The calculation of exact confidence bands for minimum mean-squared error linear predictors is shown to be straightforward. Conditional maximum likelihood-based inference is advocated, and corresponding asymptotic results are discussed. The models are particularly suited for processes that are skewed, peaked, and leptokurtic, but which appear to have some higher order moments. A case study of a fund of real estate returns reveals that AL noise models tend to deliver a superior fit with substantially less parameters than normal noise counterparts, and provide both a competitive fit and a greater degree of numerical stability with respect to other skewed distributions.     

我国物权法中的不动产登记制度

不动产登记是各国物权立法中一项极为重要的内容，我国的物权法对于物权变动公示方法之一的不动产登记制度做出了明确规定，这些规定不仅保持了现行有关不动产登记制度的稳定性和连续性，而且根据现实需要创设了一些适应社会需求的制度，呈现出一定的创新性。从不动产登记的概念、性质出发，介绍了我国物权法关于此制度存在的一些不足，并提出相关的完善建议。     

Conditional covariance penalties for mixed models

The prediction error for mixed models can have a conditional or a marginal perspective depending on the research focus. We introduce a novel conditional version of the optimism theorem for mixed models linking the conditional prediction error to covariance penalties for mixed models. Different possibilities for estimating these conditional covariance penalties are introduced. These are bootstrap methods, cross-validation, and a direct approach called Steinian. The behavior of the different estimation techniques is assessed in a simulation study for the binomial-, the t-, and the gamma distribution and for different kinds of prediction error. Furthermore, the impact of the estimation techniques on the prediction error is discussed based on an application to undernutrition in Zambia.     

Bootstrapping Periodic State-Space Models

This article is concerned with how the bootstrap can be applied to study conditional forecast error distributions and construct prediction regions for future observations in periodic time-varying state-space models. We derive, first, an algorithm for assessing the precision of quasi-maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters. As a result, the derived algorithm is exploited for numerically evaluating the conditional forecast accuracy of a periodic time series model expressed in state space form. We propose a method which requires the backward, or reverse-time, representation of the model for assessing conditional forecast errors. Finally, the small sample properties of the proposed procedures will be investigated by some simulation studies. Furthermore, we illustrate the results by applying the proposed method to a real time series.     

知识产权“十二五”发展规划实施的关键难题与机遇研究

知识产权＂十二五＂发展规划具有多重属性与复杂性、制定组织结构多元化、地区发展不平衡及其与环境匹配较难等特点,较薄弱的知识产权基础因素与国际发展动态影响下,使得我国知识产权＂十二五＂发展规划实施挑战与机遇并存。     

研发过程中知识产权风险的控制

企业知识产权包括商标、专利和著作权等，它是企业重要的无形资产。目前，国内大多数企业还不够重视企业的知识产权保护，尤其是专利保护。在研发过程中的专利申请及保护不及时、不到位，导致企业从项目研发到市场占有的整个过程蒙受巨大风险。从知识产权保护角度，探讨了企业研发过程中有关风险的防范措施。     

胡尖山地区长 6、长 4+5 储层有利区预测

摘要：以胡尖山油田长 6、长 4+5 油藏为例，综合应用地质资料、岩芯分析资料、测井资料以及试油资料，开展了长 6和长 4+5 油藏小层划分和对比、单井相分析，建立测井相识别模式，编制小层沉积相平面展布图，进而分析沉积相演化规律；探讨储层砂体展布以及物性分布规律，从而深入认识研究区的储层特征。在此基础上对储层进行流动单元的划分，然后结合试油资料对胡尖山油田长 6、长 4+5 油藏的储层进行有利区域的预测，为油田待开发区域的合理建产开发提供了理论指导     

Social cohesion in Rwanda: Results from a public good experiment

We describe a public good experiment, a type of economic experiment commonly used to examine feelings of prosociality—that is, behaviour which is positive, helpful and intended to promote social acceptance and friendship—and community cohesion, carried out in Rwanda. Contributions in different parts of the country are affected by the local intensity of the 1994 genocide, with more generous contributions being made in areas where violence was greater. This supports earlier research indicating that conflict experience leads to greater prosociality. However, we also find that people who have not, themselves, been targets of violence give lower contributions than people who have. The considerable group‐related and regional differences in social behaviour may have implications for the country's policies to deal with social cohesion.     

On prediction from the location-scale model with equi correlated response

The location-scale model with equi-correlated responses is discussed. The structure of the location-scale model is utilised to genera-te the prediction distribution of a future response and that of a set of future responses. The method avoids the integration procedures usually involved in derivation of prediction distributions and yields results same as those obtained by the Bayes method with the vague prior distribution* Finally the re-suits have been specialised to cover the case of the normal intra-class model.