Estimation of a Change Point in a Hazard Function Based on Censored Data

The hazard function plays an important role in reliability or survival studies since it describes the instantaneous risk of failure of items at a time point, given that they have not failed before. In some real life applications, abrupt changes in the hazard function are observed due to overhauls, major operations or specific maintenance activities. In such situations it is of interest to detect the location where such a change occurs and estimate the size of the change. In this paper we consider the problem of estimating a single change point in a piecewise constant hazard function when the observed variables are subject to random censoring. We suggest an estimation procedure that is based on certain structural properties and on least squares ideas. A simulation study is carried out to compare the performance of this estimator with two estimators available in the literature: an estimator based on a functional of the Nelson-Aalen estimator and a maximum likelihood estimator. The proposed least squares estimator tums out to be less biased than the other two estimators, but has a larger variance. We illustrate the estimation method on some real data sets.     

Marginal Regression of Gaps Between Recurrent Events

Recurrent event data typically exhibit the phenomenon of intra-individual correlation, owing to not only observed covariates but also random effects. In many applications, the population may be reasonably postulated as a heterogeneous mixture of individual renewal processes, and the inference of interest is the effect of individual-level covariates. In this article, we suggest and investigate a marginal proportional hazards model for gaps between recurrent events. A connection is established between observed gap times and clustered survival data with informative cluster size. We subsequently construct a novel and general inference procedure for the latter, based on a functional formulation of standard Cox regression. Large-sample theory is established for the proposed estimators. Numerical studies demonstrate that the procedure performs well with practical sample sizes. Application to the well-known bladder tumor data is given as an illustration.     

Ensuring units invariant slack selection in radial data envelopment analysis models,and incorporating slacks into an overall efficiency score

This paper introduces a new methodology ensuring units invariant slack selection in radial DEA models and incorporating the slacks into an overall efficiency score. The CCR and BCC models are units invariant in their radial component, but not in their slack component, thus changing the units of measurement of one or more variables can change the models' solution. The proposed Full Proportional Slack (FPS) methodology improves the slack selections of the CCR and BCC models by producing slack selections that (a) are units invariant, thus producing fully units invariant models, (b) maximize the relative improvements represented by the slacks, and not their values, and (c) measure the full slacks that need to be removed from their corresponding variables. The FPS methodology is a fully oriented methodology first maximizing the improvements in the variables on the side of the orientation of the model. The Proportional Slack Adjusted (PSA) methodology incorporates the FPS slacks into an overall efficiency score, making it easier to interpret and use the results. The FPS and PSA methodologies are illustrated using an input oriented VRS Loan Quality DEA model with data from the retail branch network of one of Canada's largest banks.     

汕头市货币分房政策分析

汕头市货币分房方案符合国家和广东省房改政策要求，在住房补贴的领取条件、补贴标准、方式、资金来源、管理办法等方面都具有自身的特色。其优点很明显，也存在不少缺陷。     

Emotions,Trust, and Perceived Risk: Affective and Cognitive Routes to Flood Preparedness Behavior

Despite the prognoses of the effects of global warming (e.g., rising sea levels, increasing river discharges), few international studies have addressed how flood preparedness should be stimulated among private citizens. This article aims to predict Dutch citizens’ flood preparedness intentions by testing a path model, including previous flood hazard experiences, trust in public flood protection, and flood risk perceptions (both affective and cognitive components). Data were collected through questionnaire surveys in two coastal communities (n= 169, n= 244) and in one river area community (n= 658). Causal relations were tested by means of structural equation modeling (SEM). Overall, the results indicate that both cognitive and affective mechanisms influence citizens’ preparedness intentions. First, a higher level of trust reduces citizens’ perceptions of flood likelihood, which in turn hampers their flood preparedness intentions (cognitive route). Second, trust also lessens the amount of dread evoked by flood risk, which in turn impedes flood preparedness intentions (affective route). Moreover, the affective route showed that levels of dread were especially influenced by citizens’ negative and positive emotions related to their previous flood hazard experiences. Negative emotions most often reflected fear and powerlessness, while positive emotions most frequently reflected feelings of solidarity. The results are consistent with the affect heuristic and the historical context of Dutch flood risk management. The great challenge for flood risk management is the accommodation of both cognitive and affective mechanisms in risk communications, especially when most people lack an emotional basis stemming from previous flood hazard events.     

Inference Under Right Censoring in a Discrete Setup

In this article, we consider the right random censoring scheme in a discrete setup when the lifetime and censoring variables are independent and have geometric distributions with means 1/θ₁ and 1/θ₂, respectively. We first obtain the Maximum Likelihood and Method of Moment estimators of the unknown parameters. We also find the Bayes and Posterior Regret Gamma Minimax estimators of the parameters for the two cases when the prior distributions are dependent and independent, assuming a squared error loss function. We then discuss the Proportional Hazard model, and obtain Maximum Likelihood estimators of the unknown parameters and derive the Bayes estimators assuming squared error loss using Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods.     

On cumulative entropies

In analogy with the cumulative residual entropy recently proposed by Wang et al. [2003a. A new and robust information theoretic measure and its application to image alignment. In: Information Processing in Medical Imaging. Lecture Notes in Computer Science, vol. 2732, Springer, Heidelberg, pp. 388–400; 2003b. Cumulative residual entropy, a new measure of information and its application to image alignment. In: Proceedings on the Ninth IEEE International Conference on Computer Vision (ICCV’03), vol. 1, IEEE Computer Society Press, Silver Spring, MD, pp. 548–553], we introduce and study the cumulative entropy, which is a new measure of information alternative to the classical differential entropy. We show that the cumulative entropy of a random lifetime X can be expressed as the expectation of its mean inactivity time evaluated at X. Hence, our measure is particularly suitable to describe the information in problems related to ageing properties of reliability theory based on the past and on the inactivity times. Our results include various bounds to the cumulative entropy, its connection to the proportional reversed hazards model, and the study of its dynamic version that is shown to be increasing if the mean inactivity time is increasing. The empirical cumulative entropy is finally proposed to estimate the new information measure.     

有效抑制道德风险的融资结构

着重从道德风险有效抑制的角度探讨融资结构问题，得出两个主要观点：融资结构中若包括扮演积极监督者角色的大股东、债权人及持有一定数量公司股票的经管人员，将会有效地抑制由股权融资引起的企业经营管理者的道德风险行为；债权人可以通过与受信主体的长期合作，或加入到受信主体的董事会，来抑制由债权融资引起的股东及经营管理者的道德风险行为。基于观点，采用Jensen and Meckling分析所有权结构时的方法设计了一个最佳融资结构。     

Improving the Efficiency of the Nelson–Aalen Estimator: the Naive Local Constant Estimator

Abstract.  The Nelson–Aalen estimator is well known to be an asymptotically efficient estimator of the cumulative hazard function, see Andersen et al. ( Statistical models based on counting processes , Springer-Verlag, New York, 1993) among many others. In this paper, we show that the efficiency of the Nelson–Aalen estimator can be considerably improved by using more information in the estimation process than the traditional Nelson–Aalen estimator uses. While our approach results in a biased estimator, the variance improvement is substantial. By optimizing the balance between the bias loss and the variance improvement, we obtain results on the efficiency gain. Several examples for known failure time distributions are used to illustrate these ideas.     

论社会医疗保险中的道德风险及其制度消解

道德风险源于人的机会主义倾向,在社会医疗保险领域中积弊已久,主要表现为需求方的过度消费和供给方的诱导需求,其原因在于第三方支付效应、价格补偿效应和医疗伦理的异化。只有医、患、保三方进行制度创新才能对其有效消解。