Hierarchical Generalized Linear Models and Frailty Models with Bayesian Nonparametric Mixing

This paper proposes Bayesian nonparametric mixing for some well-known and popular models. The distribution of the observations is assumed to contain an unknown mixed effects term which includes a fixed effects term, a function of the observed covariates, and an additive or multiplicative random effects term. Typically these random effects are assumed to be independent of the observed covariates and independent and identically distributed from a distribution from some known parametric family. This assumption may be suspect if either there is interaction between observed covariates and unobserved covariates or the fixed effects predictor of observed covariates is misspecified. Another cause for concern might be simply that the covariates affect more than just the location of the mixed effects distribution. As a consequence the distribution of the random effects could be highly irregular in modality and skewness leaving parametric families unable to model the distribution adequately. This paper therefore proposes a Bayesian nonparametric prior for the random effects to capture possible deviances in modality and skewness and to explore the observed covariates' effect on the distribution of the mixed effects.     

Neighborhood Quality, Environmental Hazards, Personality Traits, and Resident Actions

A survey of 798 New Jersey residents examined relationships among residents' neighborhood activities, perceptions of neighborhood quality, trust of experts, support for rebuilding cities and equal rights, and degree of optimism. Neighborhood activities increased with lack of trust and optimism. These personality characteristic measures were folded into multidimensional constructs that included local environmental hazards, respondents' ratings of their previous neighborhoods, and some demographic variables. Pessimism and values that support equal rights and rebuilding cities were weakly associated with poor quality neighborhood ratings.     

Methodological Approaches to Assessing Risk Perceptions Associated with Food-Related Hazards

The psychometric approach developed by Slovic and his co-workers has been effectively used to assess risk perceptions associated with different food-related hazards. However, further examination (using questionnaire data and partial correlation techniques) has indicated that technological hazards are highly differentiated from lifestyle hazards, in terms of both hazard control and knowledge about the hazard. Optimistic bias was also seen to vary between hazards. Further research has focused on a particular hazard, genetic engineering. Risk perceptions associated with genetic engineering are underpinned by ethical concern and questions relating to perceived need for the technology, as well as perceptions of risk or harm. However, increasing the specificity of hazard stimuli was found to alter the factor structure of underlying risk perceptions. The utility of preference mapping procedures in determining individual differences in trust in risk regulators is also discussed.     

建立市价会计的构想

会计准则中规范的五种会计计量属性在物价变动情况下存在诸多的不足,从而提出建立市价会计的构想。文章提出了市价会计的概念、市价会计的运用、企业运用市价会计需要解决的问题及市价会计的意义。     

人性假设与公共行政思想演变

人性假设是一切社会科学的逻辑起点,从人性假设出发审视公共行政思想演变是阐释公共行政发展史的重要视角。以公共行政学科建立为界限,公共行政思想演进历程可分为前公共行政学时期和公共行政学时期。从人性假设出发,可以了解前公共行政学时期在性善论影响下的中国政治与行政思想的内控型特征,在性恶论影响下的西方政治与行政思想的外控型特征,以及公共行政学时期以性恶论为基础的经济人假设、以性善论为基础的社会人假设、以人性善恶二重性为基础的复杂人假设对公共行政思想中管理主义、宪政主义及其二者整合的影响。     

Nurse safety: How is safety climate related to affect and attitude?

Occupational accidents and injuries continue to be a critical concern for nurses, given the hazardous healthcare environment. This study advances the research on workplace safety by studying the process variables (i.e. job-related negative affect (JRNA) and job satisfaction) in explaining the relationship between safety climate and various safety criteria in nurses. Based on survey data from 326 nurses, our findings suggest that psychological safety climate is negatively related to JRNA, turnover intentions, safety workarounds, and workplace hazards. In addition, structural equation modelling indicated general support for a model in which psychological safety climate influences employee strain through job attitudes, including JRNA and job satisfaction. More specifically, job attitudes were found to mediate the relationship between psychological safety climate and turnover intentions, experience of hazards, and injuries. Safety workarounds did not significantly relate to injuries. The present study contributes to the ongoing improvement of interventions aimed at mitigating nurses’ injuries by integrating job attitudes into the safety climate–safety outcome framework.     

欠发达省域农民工持续就业稳定性及影响因素——基于广西壮族自治区639份问卷调查数据

基于广西壮族自治区639份调查数据,以农民工就业的持续时间长短为观察变量,建立Cox比例风险模型,对欠发达省域农民工持续就业的稳定性影响因素进行实证分析。结果表明:年龄、婚姻状况及受教育年限对农民工退出城市劳动力市场的影响显著。农民工年龄每增加1岁,退出城市劳动力市场风险减少5.6%;已婚农民工较未婚农民工退出风险减少40.2%;受教育年限对农民工退出城市劳动力市场具有极显著的负影响,受教育年限每延长1年,退出风险降低17.8%。农民工的工作收入以及工作环境影响显著,人均纯收入越高,自评劳动强度越"小",自评技术能力越"好",与工作单位签订就业合同、购买社会保险、接受劳动培训的机会越多,退出风险越低。     

Acute Exposure to Extremely Hazardous Substances: An Analysis of Environmental Equity

Although environmental equity research has focused primarily on chronic pollution sources, recent advances in environmental modeling and geographic information systems (GIS) provide a foundation for developing measures that can be used to evaluate differential exposure to acute pollution events. This article describes a methodology that uses facility-specific information to develop a risk surface representing the spatial distribution of accidental exposure to hazardous substances in a study area. Environmental pollution models recommended by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency were used in conjunction with GIS software to achieve this objective. The methodology was implemented in a large metropolitan region (Hillsborough County, Florida) to examine disproportionate exposure to worst-case releases of extremely hazardous substances. The environmental inequity hypothesis was investigated by directly comparing the distribution of potential exposures within each racial (non-White versus White) and income (below poverty versus above poverty) subgroup. The results indicate that a significantly large proportion of both non-White and impoverished individuals resided in areas potentially exposed to multiple accidental releases.     

科学假说与伪科学歪理邪说的分界

伪科学的一个突出特点是打着发展科学、提出新的科学假说的旗号欺骗群众.科学假说所具有的假设性的特点,也给伪科学留下可乘之机.本文从科学假说和伪科学与科学事实、科学理论、科学检验三方面的关系,分析了二者的本质区别.从三个方面的分析中还可以看出,我们与伪科学的斗争将是长期的.     

Urn Sampling and the Proportional Hazard Model

This paper investigates the urn sampling analogue for the score statistic relating survival to covariates assuming a proportional hazard model. The exact permutation distribution can be calculated as well as the exact low order moments for arbitrary censoring patterns. The asymptotic distribution of the score statistic is an easy consequence. The method is naturally extended to deal with the multivariate case, time varying covariates and interval censoring. Finally the relationship between the censoring process, the survival times and covariates are studied considering different reference sets for the distribution of the score statistic. Some assumptions about the censoring process are investigated and as a consequence the effect of censoring is clarified.