A Semi-Parametric Quantile Function Estimator for Use in Bootstrap Estimation Procedures

In this note we develop a new quantile function estimator called the tail extrapolation quantile function estimator. The estimator behaves asymptotically exactly the same as the standard linear interpolation estimator. For finite samples there is small correction towards estimating the extreme quantiles. We illustrate that by employing this new estimator we can greatly improve the coverage probabilities of the standard bootstrap percentile confidence intervals. The method does not reqiure complicated calculations and hence it should appeal to the statistical practitioner.     

教师的有效性研究领域的几种范式略论

在教师的有效性的研究领域存在三种范式 :性格理论、行为和认知理论、权变理论。它们的更迭体现了人们对教师有效性问题的理解的深化     

中学语文素质教育应注重对学生个性心理素质的培养

语文素质教育在提高学生素质的教育中有着其他学科无可比拟的特殊作用和重要意义。语文素质是由语言、思维、智能、心理素质构成的。但在目前 ,研究者多着眼于语言、智能素质的探讨 ,而对心理素质特别是心理素质与其他素质的关系研究较少。本文着重从心理素质在语文素质中的作用、个性心理素质在心理素质中的作用及个性心理素质的养成等问题做了一些有益的探讨     

Trauma Events, Residence in Refugee Camps, and Educational Attainment as Predictors of Trauma Symptoms of Albanian Refugees in Macedonia

Adult members of 79 Albanian families who had fled from Kosovo to Macedonia during the immediate postwar period (June–August 1999) were interviewed. In conjunction with therapeutic intervention, the Harvard Trauma Questionnaire (HTQ) and the General Health Questionnaire (GTQ) were administered. Trauma symptoms as measured by the HTQ and psychological distress as measured by the GHQ were highly correlated. The best predictor of psychological distress was severity of the trauma experienced. Refugees with high educational attainment had fewer trauma symptoms than those with lower educational attainment. Refugees who lived with host families in towns showed fewer trauma symptoms than those who lived in camps, but they were also more highly educated. The results of hierarchical multiple regression analyses suggested that educational attainment may mediate the effect of place of residence. Educational attainment may be an indicator of resourceful and effective coping strategies that ameliorate the effects of trauma.     

中国传统管理人员心理素质研究

管理工作要求管理人员必须具备一定的心理素质。本文从“德”、“才”、“知”、“心”四个方面探讨了中国传统的管理人员心理素质     

Bayesian validation assessment of multivariate computational models

Multivariate model validation is a complex decision-making problem involving comparison of multiple correlated quantities, based upon the available information and prior knowledge. This paper presents a Bayesian risk-based decision method for validation assessment of multivariate predictive models under uncertainty. A generalized likelihood ratio is derived as a quantitative validation metric based on Bayes’ theorem and Gaussian distribution assumption of errors between validation data and model prediction. The multivariate model is then assessed based on the comparison of the likelihood ratio with a Bayesian decision threshold, a function of the decision costs and prior of each hypothesis. The probability density function of the likelihood ratio is constructed using the statistics of multiple response quantities and Monte Carlo simulation. The proposed methodology is implemented in the validation of a transient heat conduction model, using a multivariate data set from experiments. The Bayesian methodology provides a quantitative approach to facilitate rational decisions in multivariate model assessment under uncertainty.     

谁开创了贝叶斯学派？——对拉普拉斯1774年一篇文章的回顾

1764年,贝叶斯的遗作《机遇理论中一个问题的解》，是当今统计学界贝叶斯学派的开山之作，然而直到20世纪，贝叶斯的文章却并未对后世贝叶斯学派的发展产生重大影响。事实上，真正促使贝叶斯的思想在科学界得到广泛传播的关键人物是大科学家拉普拉斯。1774年，拉普拉斯发表的关于贝叶斯理论的里程碑式的文章，使现代读者充分认识到拉普拉斯对贝叶斯学派发展所起的巨大作用，并从拉普拉斯的思想中获得了有益的新知。     

高校心理咨询现状分析——以某校449例次心理咨询记录资料为例

通过对某高校心理咨询中心449例次个别咨询记录资料进行整理,分析高校心理咨询的特点。结果显示:在高校心理咨询问题中,由多到少依次是恋爱问题、人际关系问题、情绪问题、学习问题、考研就业问题等。一年级大学生心理咨询的学生明显高于其它年级,不同年级学生咨询的问题存在差异,不同性别学生在咨询的问题上不存在明显的差异。在大学中寻求心理咨询帮助的大学生占学生总数的比例太小,大学生心理问题以发展性问题为主,贫困、网络、家庭等原因引起的心理问题值得关注和讨论。     

高校贫困新生心理障碍探析

本文对以SCL—90(Symptom Checklist 90)筛查出来的82名具有不同程度心理障碍的大学贫困新生进行了面谈和追踪访问,发现经济压力夹杂在各种生活事件中,增加了大学贫困新生适应大学生活的难度,贫困新生的心理障碍主要表现在强迫、人际关系敏感、偏执、抑郁,并且性别之间存在差异,需要加强有针对性的心理健康教育和辅导。     

构建高校学生心理健康教育长效机制的思考

大学生心理健康教育是高等学校学生思想政治教育工作的重要组成部分，构建高校学生心理健康教育的长效机制，是此项工作经常、有序、健康、高效开展的重要保证，其核心内容是建立目标体系和运行机制，从而实现该项工作的持续性和实效性目标。