社会保障水平研究综述

社会保障水平的是社会保障研究的重要方面。对社会保障水平的由来、社会保障支出水平的指标体系、社会保障水平的实际测度方法、社会保障水平的具体测度等进行了总结研究和评述。在此基础上提出社会保障水平的研究展望。     

心理咨询中的人性观概念

本文探讨了心理咨询中人性观的概念，进而提出咨询理论与技术的应用应该具有一种折衷主义的态度，同时从这种态度出发，分析了五种主流咨询理论折衷主义应用的可能。     

European Scientific Socio-Economic Reporting: State and Possibilities of Development

This paper proposes a European socio-economic reporting system, consisting of different elements and constructed in a modular form. The main idea is to monitor the process of welfare production, conceived in the form of an input-throughput-output model. Actors of welfare production generate inputs, these are mediated and filtered by institutional arrangements and finally determine the outcomes, that is the individual welfare. For all of the three parts of the welfare production model available data sources, social reports, social surveys, databases with institutional information etc. are reviewed and analyzed with respect to their use for the monitoring of welfare production. The paper is divided into five sections: first, the state of socio-economic reporting is outlined; second, the use of the available material is discussed; third, new approaches and instruments in socio-economic reporting are described; fourth, a scenario of European socio-economic reporting is outlined; and fifth, the steps needed for implementation are delineated.     

One sided acceptance sampling by variables: the case of the laplace distribution

The theory of acceptance sampling by variables is well known when the underlying distribution is normal. When the normality assumption is not true, using the usual normal case method can be quite misleading. In this paper we deal with the Laplace distribution for both the standard deviation known and then unknown. We establish a decision rule for accepting a lot of product containing a defective proportion p. We determine the density function of the decision rule statistic, for small and large sample sizes. We give some practical ways to choose the sample size and the acceptance constant to obtain a desired operating characteristic curve     

Prediction intervals for ordinary and dual generalized order statistics from two independent sequences

ABSTRACT

Based on the observed dual generalized order statistics drawn from an arbitrary unknown distribution, nonparametric two-sided prediction intervals as well as prediction upper and lower bounds for an ordinary and a dual generalized order statistic from another iid sequence with the same distribution are developed. The prediction intervals for dual generalized order statistics based on the observed ordinary generalized order statistics are also developed. The coverage probabilities of these prediction intervals are exact and free of the parent distribution, F. Finally, numerical computations and real examples of the coverage probabilities are presented for choosing the appropriate limits of the prediction.     

A minimum variance adaptive technique for parameter estimation and hypothesis testing

This report presents numerical results of an approach for parameter estimation and hypothesis testing that does not rely on specific assumptions about the underlying distribution of errors in the measured data. This approach combines robust estimation procedures, the bootstrap method for estimation of parameter uncertainties, permutation techniques for hypothesis testing, and adaptive approaches to estimation in order to obtain the minimum variance estimator or test statistic (within a predefined class) for the data under consideration. The technique produces efficient estimators of central tendency and powerful test statistics, even for small sample sizes. (Portions of this work have been presented in preliminary form (Turkheimer et al., 1996)).     

Teaching Elementary Bayesian Statistics with Real Applications in Science

University courses in elementary statistics are usually taught from a frequentist perspective. In this paper I suggest how such courses can be taught using a Bayesian approach, and I indicate why beginning students are well served by a Bayesian course. A principal focus of any good elementary course is the application of statistics to real and important scientific problems. The Bayesian approach fits neatly with a scientific focus. Bayesians take a larger view, and one not limited to data analysis. In particular, the Bayesian approach is subjective, and requires assessing prior probabilities. This requirement forces users to relate current experimental evidence to other available information–-including previous experiments of a related nature, where “related” is judged subjectively. I discuss difficulties faced by instructors and students in elementary Bayesian courses, and provide a sample syllabus for an elementary Bayesian course.     

李逵的性格特征及其审美文化底蕴

〕“绝假纯真”、“莽悍狂野”是《水浒》中李逵性格的主要特征，本文探究了这种性格所包含的审美文化心理因素，并结合文化传统初步揭示了它所具有的审美接受效应     

Transmuted Weibull distribution: Properties and estimation

In this article, we investigate the potential usefulness of the three-parameter transmuted Weibull distribution for modeling survival data. The main advantage of this distribution is that it has increasing, decreasing or constant instantaneous failure rate depending on the shape parameter and the new transmuting parameter. We obtain several mathematical properties of the transmuted Weibull distribution such as the expressions for the quantile function, moments, geometric mean, harmonic mean, Shannon, Rényi and q-entropies, mean deviations, Bonferroni and Lorenz curves, and the moments of order statistics. We propose a location-scale regression model based on the log-transmuted Weibull distribution for modeling lifetime data. Applications to two real datasets are given to illustrate the flexibility and potentiality of the transmuted Weibull family of lifetime distributions.     

关系建立期:顾客心理契约中商家责任形成的先导决定因素及关系研究

探究顾客心理契约中商家责任形成的先导决定因素,是商家有效设计和传递承诺,促成与顾客默契合约达成的关键之一.本文运用认知映像决策理论,分析顾客对商家责任或义务的心理认知依据、认知映像进化判据、进化过程特性,据此提出顾客心理契约中商家责任认知映像的先导因素模型及关系假设,并以民航服务为实证背景对模型进行检验.结果表明:顾客心理契约中商家责任映像经历了价值、目标、实施决策的三个认知进化阶段;沟通行为能力、顾客价值观/态度、主观规范、顾客知识及经验、商家承诺及传递等因素呈现不同强度和时序分布于三阶段的认知映像.结论揭示出的一组先导决定因素及时序关系特点,为商家有针对性地履行承诺及适时地传递口碑提供理论依据.