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91.
Interdependency analysis in the context of this article is a process of assessing and managing risks inherent in a system of interconnected entities (e.g., infrastructures or industry sectors). Invoking the principles of input-output (I-O) and decomposition analysis, the article offers a framework for describing how terrorism-induced perturbations can propagate due to interconnectedness. Data published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis Division of the U.S. Department of Commerce is utilized to present applications to serve as test beds for the proposed framework. Specifically, a case study estimating the economic impact of airline demand perturbations to national-level U.S. sectors is made possible using I-O matrices. A ranking of the affected sectors according to their vulnerability to perturbations originating from a primary sector (e.g., air transportation) can serve as important input to risk management. For example, limited resources can be prioritized for the \"top-n\" sectors that are perceived to suffer the greatest economic losses due to terrorism. In addition, regional decomposition via location quotients enables the analysis of local-level terrorism events. The Regional I-O Multiplier System II (RIMS II) Division of the U.S. Department of Commerce is the agency responsible for releasing the regional multipliers for various geographical resolutions (economic areas, states, and counties). A regional-level case study demonstrates a process of estimating the economic impact of transportation-related scenarios on industry sectors within Economic Area 010 (the New York metropolitan region and vicinities). 相似文献
92.
Javier Alvarez Manuel Arellano 《Econometrica : journal of the Econometric Society》2003,71(4):1121-1159
In this paper we derive the asymptotic properties of within groups (WG), GMM, and LIML estimators for an autoregressive model with random effects when both T and N tend to infinity. GMM and LIML are consistent and asymptotically equivalent to the WG estimator. When T/N→ 0 the fixed T results for GMM and LIML remain valid, but WG, although consistent, has an asymptotic bias in its asymptotic distribution. When T/N tends to a positive constant, the WG, GMM, and LIML estimators exhibit negative asymptotic biases of order 1/T, 1/N, and 1/(2N−T), respectively. In addition, the crude GMM estimator that neglects the autocorrelation in first differenced errors is inconsistent as T/N→c>0, despite being consistent for fixed T. Finally, we discuss the properties of a random effects pseudo MLE with unrestricted initial conditions when both T and N tend to infinity. 相似文献
93.
Geert Ridder Tiemen M. Woutersen 《Econometrica : journal of the Econometric Society》2003,71(5):1579-1589
This paper presents new identification conditions for the mixed proportional hazard model. In particular, the baseline hazard is assumed to be bounded away from 0 and ∞ near t = 0. These conditions ensure that the information matrix is nonsingular. The paper also presents an estimator for the mixed proportional hazard model that converges at rate N−1/2. 相似文献
94.
To be cost‐effective, field service managers must balance the high cost of machine downtime with the high cost of cross‐training technicians in multiple skills. We study a field service system with three job types requiring three different skills. Each server has a primary skill, the cost of which is considered sunk, and up to two secondary skills, which is a managerial decision. We model two important characteristics that distinguish field services: server–job mismatch and the ratio of travel time to service time. We use a queueing framework and simulation to study three cross‐training decisions: the number of servers cross‐trained in secondary skills, the number of secondary skills each server should have, and the efficiency in each secondary skill. We find that complete cross‐training is cost‐effective in some field service situations. Typically, efficiency in secondary skills must be close to 100%, but when the probability of mismatch is high and the ratio of travel time to service time is high, efficiency in secondary skills must be less than 100%. 相似文献
95.
Over the past two decades, questions have surfaced about the effectiveness and contribution of intelligent systems to decision makers in a variety of settings. This paper focuses on the evaluation challenges associated with intelligent real‐time software systems that are embedded in larger host systems. With the proliferation of such systems in operational settings such as aerospace, medical, manufacturing, and transportation systems, increased attention to evaluations of such systems, and to resulting software safety, is warranted. This paper describes one such evaluation and proposes a set of evaluation criteria for embedded intelligent real‐time systems (EIRTS). Implications of the evaluation and the evaluation criteria are discussed. 相似文献
96.
Ola Elerian Siddhartha Chib Neil Shephard 《Econometrica : journal of the Econometric Society》2001,69(4):959-993
This paper is concerned with the Bayesian estimation of nonlinear stochastic differential equations when observations are discretely sampled. The estimation framework relies on the introduction of latent auxiliary data to complete the missing diffusion between each pair of measurements. Tuned Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods based on the Metropolis‐Hastings algorithm, in conjunction with the Euler‐Maruyama discretization scheme, are used to sample the posterior distribution of the latent data and the model parameters. Techniques for computing the likelihood function, the marginal likelihood, and diagnostic measures (all based on the MCMC output) are developed. Examples using simulated and real data are presented and discussed in detail. 相似文献
97.
Firms are often encouraged to offer environmentally friendly products as a demonstration of corporate citizenship. However, this may prove to be an unrealistic expectation since a rational firm will only engage in profitable ventures; those that increase shareholder wealth. We develop a framework for analyzing the profitability of reuse activities and show how the management of product returns influences operational requirements. We show that the acquisition of used products may be used as the control lever for the management and profitability of reuse activities. These activities, termed product acquisition management, affect several important business decisions. First, if a firm is to pursue reuse activities, these reuse activities must be value‐creating. Second, if a firm is to compete by offering remanufactured products, then we show how product returns management influences the overall profitability of such activities via a trial and error EVA approach. Third, we show how operational issues are strongly affected by the approach used to manage product returns. There is a need for future research specifying the mathematical relationship between acquisition price and the nominal quality of the returned product. 相似文献
98.
Advances in information technology, particularly in the e‐business arena, are enabling firms to rethink their supply chain strategies and explore new avenues for inter‐organizational cooperation. However, an incomplete understanding of the value of information sharing and physical flow coordination hinder these efforts. This research attempts to help fill these gaps by surveying prior research in the area, categorized in terms of information sharing and flow coordination. We conclude by highlighting gaps in the current body of knowledge and identifying promising areas for future research. 相似文献
99.
Markham T. Frohlich 《决策科学》2002,33(4):537-556
Current opinion holds that Internet‐based supply chain integration with upstream suppliers and downstream customers (called “e‐integration” in this paper) is superior to traditional ways of doing business. This proposition remains untested, however, and similarly we know little about what are the upstream, internal, and downstream barriers to implementing e‐integration. This paper empirically addressed these questions using data from a large single nation study, and found (1) a positive link between e‐integration and performance, and (2) that internal barriers impeded e‐integration more than either upstream supplier barriers or downstream customer barriers. Findings from this study contribute to our theoretical understanding of implementing change in contemporary supply chains, and have important implications for manufacturers interested in improving their supply chain's performance using the Internet. 相似文献
100.
J. Rust J. F. Traub H. Wozniakowski 《Econometrica : journal of the Econometric Society》2002,70(1):285-329
This paper analyzes the complexity of the contraction fixed point problem: compute an ε‐approximation to the fixed point V*Γ(V*) of a contraction mapping Γ that maps a Banach space Bd of continuous functions of d variables into itself. We focus on quasi linear contractions where Γ is a nonlinear functional of a finite number of conditional expectation operators. This class includes contractive Fredholm integral equations that arise in asset pricing applications and the contractive Bellman equation from dynamic programming. In the absence of further restrictions on the domain of Γ, the quasi linear fixed point problem is subject to the curse of dimensionality, i.e., in the worst case the minimal number of function evaluations and arithmetic operations required to compute an ε‐approximation to a fixed point V*∈Bd increases exponentially in d. We show that the curse of dimensionality disappears if the domain of Γ has additional special structure. We identify a particular type of special structure for which the problem is strongly tractable even in the worst case, i.e., the number of function evaluations and arithmetic operations needed to compute an ε‐approximation of V* is bounded by Cε−p where C and p are constants independent of d. We present examples of economic problems that have this type of special structure including a class of rational expectations asset pricing problems for which the optimal exponent p1 is nearly achieved. 相似文献