Joint Modelling of Recurrent Infections and Antibody Response by Bayesian Data Augmentation

Abstract.  A joint dynamic model for the interdependence between infection, immunity and risk of disease is presented. Recurrent latent infections are modelled as realizations from a renewal process and antibody dynamics as a diffusion with a decreasing drift modified by the stimulating effect of the random infections. The augmented submodels are estimated simultaneously in one large Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. As an example, we consider the risk of recurrent ear infections when having only partially observed information on bacterial carriage and antibody concentrations.     

高校思想政治工作的新探索——论分组方法在高校班级建设中的运用

作为新时期高校思想政治工作者 ,我们希望通过探索数学的随机排列组合在班级建设和高校思想政治工作中的可行性 ,研究高校思想政治工作的新思路、新方法 ,以期在教师的教育管理和学生的自身实践中 ,搞好高校班级建设 ,简化学生日常工作 ,增强学生自信 ,促进学生个性发展 ,提高思想政治教育工作的生动性和实效性 ,全面推进大学生的素质教育     

INDEPENDENCE DISTRIBUTION-PRESERVING NONNEGATIVE-DEFINITE COVARIANCE STRUCTURES FOR THE SAMPLE VARIANCE

This paper explicitly characterizes the general nonnegative-definite covariance structure for a multivariate normal random vector such that the univariate sample variance is distributed exactly as if the sample observations are normal independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.). This work extends the results of Baldessari (1965) and Stadje (1984) who have characterized the general positive-definite covariance matrix such that the univariate sample variance is distributed exactly as if the sample observations are normal i.i.d.     

THE IMPACT OF METHOD CHOICE ON META-ANALYSIS

This paper focusses mainly on three crucial choices identified in recent meta-analyses, namely (a) the effect of using approximate statistical techniques rather than exact methods, (fa) the effect of using fixed or random effect models, and (c) the effect of publication bias on the meta-analysis result. The paper considers their impact on a set of over thirty studies of passive smoking and lung cancer in non-smokers, and addresses other issues such as the role of study comparability, the choice of raw or adjusted data when using published summary statistics, and the effect of biases such as misclassification of subjects and study quality. The paper concludes that, at least in this example, different conclusions might be drawn from metaanalyses based on fixed or random effect models; that exact methods might increase estimated confidence interval widths by 5–20% over standard approximate (logit and Mantel-Haenszel) methods, and that these methods themselves differ by this order of magnitude; that taking study quality into account changes some results, and also improves homogeneity; that the use of unadjusted or author-adjusted data makes limited difference; that there appears to be obvious publication bias favouring observed raised relative risks; and that the choice of studies for inclusion is the single most critical choice made by the modeller.     

Likelihood ratio comparisons among spacings related to both one or two samples

In this paper, we investigate some stochastic comparisons in terms of likelihood ratio ordering between spacings from independent random variables exponentially distributed with different scale parameters. We partially solve some open problems in [Wen S, Lu Q, Hu T. Likelihood ratio orderings of spacings of heterogeneous exponential random variables. J Multivariate Anal. 2007;98:743–756] for a one-sample problem and in [Hu T, Lu Q, Wen S. Stochastic comparisons and dependence of spacings from two samples of exponential random variables. Commun Stat – Theory Methods 2006;35:979–988] for a two-sample problem. Specifically, we prove that the second spacing is always smaller than the third spacing in terms of the likelihood ratio order and we provide the ordering among all spacings in the case n=4. In the two-sample case, we establish comparisons between the second spacings related to each sample under certain conditions.     

A skew-normal random effects model for longitudinal ordinal categorical responses with missing data

Missing values are common in longitudinal data studies. The missing data mechanism is termed non-ignorable (NI) if the probability of missingness depends on the non-response (missing) observations. This paper presents a model for the ordinal categorical longitudinal data with NI non-monotone missing values. We assumed two separate models for the response and missing procedure. The response is modeled as ordinal logistic, whereas the logistic binary model is considered for the missing process. We employ these models in the context of so-called shared-parameter models, where the outcome and missing data models are connected by a common set of random effects. It is commonly assumed that the random effect follows the normal distribution in longitudinal data with or without missing data. This can be extremely restrictive in practice, and it may result in misleading statistical inferences. In this paper, we instead adopt a more flexible alternative distribution which is called the skew-normal distribution. The methodology is illustrated through an application to Schizophrenia Collaborative Study data [19 D. Hedeker, Generalized linear mixed models, in Encyclopedia of Statistics in Behavioral Science, B. Everitt and D. Howell, eds., John Wiley, London, 2005, pp. 729–738. [Google Scholar]] and a simulation.     

Fully Bayesian Binary Markov Random Field Models: Prior Specification and Posterior Simulation

We propose a flexible prior model for the parameters of binary Markov random fields (MRF), defined on rectangular lattices and with maximal cliques defined from a template maximal clique. The prior model allows higher‐order interactions to be included. We also define a reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm to sample from the associated posterior distribution. The number of possible parameters for a higher‐order MRF becomes high, even for small template maximal cliques. We define a flexible parametric form where the parameters have interpretation as potentials for clique configurations, and limit the effective number of parameters by assigning apriori discrete probabilities for events where groups of parameter values are equal. To cope with the computationally intractable normalising constant of MRFs, we adopt a previously defined approximation of binary MRFs. We demonstrate the flexibility of our prior formulation with simulated and real data examples.     

Estimation of a Copula when a Covariate Affects only Marginal Distributions

This paper is concerned with studying the dependence structure between two random variables Y₁ and Y₂ in the presence of a covariate X, which affects both marginal distributions but not the dependence structure. This is reflected in the property that the conditional copula of Y₁ and Y₂ given X, does not depend on the value of X. This latter independence often appears as a simplifying assumption in pair‐copula constructions. We introduce a general estimator for the copula in this specific setting and establish its consistency. Moreover, we consider some special cases, such as parametric or nonparametric location‐scale models for the effect of the covariate X on the marginals of Y₁ and Y₂ and show that in these cases, weak convergence of the estimator, at ‐rate, holds. The theoretical results are illustrated by simulations and a real data example.     

Generalized Linear Mixed Models Based on Latent Markov Heterogeneity Structures

We describe a generalized linear mixed model in which all random effects may evolve over time. Random effects have a discrete support and follow a first‐order Markov chain. Constraints control the size of the parameter space and possibly yield blocks of time‐constant random effects. We illustrate with an application to the relationship between health education and depression in a panel of adolescents, where the random effects are highly dimensional and separately evolve over time.