Modelling heterogeneous space–time occurrences of earthquakes and its residual analysis

Summary. Earthquake intensities are modelled as a function of previous activity whose specific form is based on established empirical laws in seismology, but whose parameter values can vary from place to place. This model is used for characterizing regional features of seismic activities in and around Japan, and also for exploring regions where the actual seismicity rate systematically deviates from that of the modelled rate.     

如何行成关系数据模型到面向对象数据模型的映射

关系数据模型是基于记录的基本数据模型;面向对象数据模型是基于对象的基本数据模型;两种数据模型在某种程度上应存在相互映射和相互转变的可能性,它们的相互映射和相互转变将使关系数据库和面向对象数据库之间的转变成为可能。     

Bias Correction in the Dynamic Panel Data Model with a Nonscalar Disturbance Covariance Matrix

Approximation formulae are developed for the bias of ordinary and generalized Least Squares Dummy Variable (LSDV) estimators in dynamic panel data models. Results from Kiviet [Kiviet, J. F. (1995), on bias, inconsistency, and efficiency of various estimators in dynamic panel data models, J. Econometrics68:53-78; Kiviet, J. F. (1999), Expectations of expansions for estimators in a dynamic panel data model: some results for weakly exogenous regressors, In: Hsiao, C., Lahiri, K., Lee, L-F., Pesaran, M. H., eds., Analysis of Panels and Limited Dependent Variables, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, pp. 199-225] are extended to higher-order dynamic panel data models with general covariance structure. The focus is on estimation of both short- and long-run coefficients. The results show that proper modelling of the disturbance covariance structure is indispensable. The bias approximations are used to construct bias corrected estimators which are then applied to quarterly data from 14 European Union countries. Money demand functions for M1, M2 and M3 are estimated for the EU area as a whole for the period 1991: I-1995: IV. Significant spillovers between countries are found reflecting the dependence of domestic money demand on foreign developments. The empirical results show that in general plausible long-run effects are obtained by the bias corrected estimators. Moreover, finite sample bias, although of moderate magnitude, is present underlining the importance of more refined estimation techniques. Also the efficiency gains by exploiting the heteroscedasticity and cross-correlation patterns between countries are sometimes considerable.     

名词性复合词的意义建构诸理论述评

名词性复合词的意义建构是一个看似简单,实际上非常复杂的过程。传统语法把这一意义建构过程简单化,认为名词性复合词的意义等于各组成部分名词的意义总和。转换生成语言学家 意义特征理论学家也都提出了各自的理论解释,但都有很大的缺陷。概念合成语言学理论对名词性复合词的意义建构做出了比较完整的理论解释,但也有待于进一步的改进。     

Generalized Laplacian approximations in Bayesian inference

This paper presents a new Laplacian approximation to the posterior density of η = g(θ). It has a simpler analytical form than that described by Leonard et al. (1989). The approximation derived by Leonard et al. requires a conditional information matrix R_η to be positive definite for every fixed η. However, in many cases, not all R_η are positive definite. In such cases, the computations of their approximations fail, since the approximation cannot be normalized. However, the new approximation may be modified so that the corresponding conditional information matrix can be made positive definite for every fixed η. In addition, a Bayesian procedure for contingency-table model checking is provided. An example of cross-classification between the educational level of a wife and fertility-planning status of couples is used for explanation. Various Laplacian approximations are computed and compared in this example and in an example of public school expenditures in the context of Bayesian analysis of the multiparameter Fisher-Behrens problem.     

中小企业CRM系统的OLAP设计与实现

根据中小企业CRM发展需求,构建了OLAP分析模型,为企业提供决策支持.     

构建以人为本的英语教学模式

传统的英语教育模式忽视了学生的个性意识、个性特点和个性需要,违背了人本主义的教育教学理念。如何提高教学效率一直是外语教师主要探讨的问题。文章运用人本主义的教学理念,结合实际探讨了如何构建以人为本的新型教学模式以改进英语教学,提高教学效率。以人为本的新型教学模式包括:创立民主愉悦的课堂教学环境、构建个性化的学习空间、设计师生共同探索的教学活动、建立协作性的教学模式。     

大学计算机专业“基础原理”课的教学探讨

本文针对现代大学生学习计算机专业“基础原理”课程存在的种种客观问题,通过分析这些问题找出其中原因,并介绍对这些问题所采取的解决方案。教学实践表明,这些方案对学生学习“基础原理课”起到了较好的效果,提高了这类课程的教学质量。     

Low dose risk estimation via simultaneous statistical inferences

Summary.  The paper develops and studies simultaneous confidence bounds that are useful for making low dose inferences in quantitative risk analysis. Application is intended for risk assessment studies where human, animal or ecological data are used to set safe low dose levels of a toxic agent, but where study information is limited to high dose levels of the agent. Methods are derived for estimating simultaneous, one-sided, upper confidence limits on risk for end points measured on a continuous scale. From the simultaneous confidence bounds, lower confidence limits on the dose that is associated with a particular risk (often referred to as a bench-mark dose ) are calculated. An important feature of the simultaneous construction is that any inferences that are based on inverting the simultaneous confidence bounds apply automatically to inverse bounds on the bench-mark dose.     

深圳证券交易所不同指数收益率的波动比较

股票价格指数的波动的大小通常代表了它的风险程度,研究股指的波动对风险管理、投资组合以及价格预测有着十分重要的意义。文章采用时间序列分析方法,对深圳证券交易所的三种价格指数建立GARCH模型,并对这三种指数的波动率进行比较。