建构一个新的城乡一体化分析框架：机会平等视角

对城乡一体化的现有研究或采用经济学视角,或采用制度学视角,而很少采用机会平等视角。研究认为:不论是经济资源配置还是制度和政策制定,都要视对城乡机会平等的影响如何,来判断其是否促进城乡一体化进程。机会平等是城乡一体化的本质属性。当然,机会是复杂、多样的,可以划分为基本生存机会、中层机会和高层机会,与此同时,平等也可以划分为形式平等和实质平等。在推进不同类型机会平等上,城乡一体化表现出不同的进度。该分析框架可以更好地分析我国城乡一体化进程(包括地区城乡一体化进程)。     

Moments of suprema of random variables

The supremum of random variables representing a sequence of rewards is of interest in establishing the existence of optimal stopping rules. Necessary and sufficient conditions are given for existence of moments of sup_n(X_n ? c_n) and sup_n(S_n ? c_n) where X₁, X₂, … are i.i.d. random variables, S_n = X₁ + … + X_n, and c_n = (nL(n))^1/r, 0 < r < 2, L = 1, L = log, and L = log log. Following Cohn (1974), “rates of convergence” results are used in the proof.     

No‐Bubble Condition: Model‐Free Tests in Housing Markets

We test for the existence of housing bubbles associated with a failure of the transversality condition that requires the present value of payments occurring infinitely far in the future to be zero. The most prominent such bubble is the classic rational bubble. We study housing markets in the United Kingdom and Singapore, where residential property ownership takes the form of either leaseholds or freeholds. Leaseholds are finite‐maturity, pre‐paid, and tradeable ownership contracts with maturities often exceeding 700 years. Freeholds are infinite‐maturity ownership contracts. The price difference between leaseholds with extremely‐long maturities and freeholds reflects the present value of a claim to the freehold after leasehold expiry, and is thus a direct empirical measure of the transversality condition. We estimate this price difference, and find no evidence of failures of the transversality condition in housing markets in the U.K. and Singapore, even during periods when a sizable bubble was regularly thought to be present.     

Ranking of the Most Prolific Authors,Universities, and Organizations in the Journal of Organizational Behavior Management

ABSTRACT

Over the years, reviews in behavior analysis have sought to identify the most prolific researchers and institutions. The goal of these reviews was to offer one resource for behavior analysts to identify experts in behavior analysis and quality graduate programs. However, most of these reviews omitted the Journal of Organizational Behavior Management (JOBM), making the results less relevant to those who work in organizational behavior management. The purpose of this review was to extend previous findings and identify the most published researchers, academic institutions, and organizations in JOBM since its inception. Furthermore, we calculated the citation rate (per year, per article) for each of the top 20 most published authors. The results, implications, and opportunities for further analysis are discussed.     

博弈论视角下的征地实践：基于鄂中L村的考察

基于对既有征地研究中政治抗争视角以及批判我国当前土地制度视角的反思,研究发现,需要将国家征地行为置于村庄之中,实现征地情境的还原,揭示征地本身的复杂性、所牵涉征地主体及其利益诉求的多样性,才能整体和客观理解征地纠纷和冲突产生的实质。通过对鄂中L村征地实践过程的详细展现和考察,发现征地纠纷主要是村庄内部各主体针对征地利益博弈的结果,与抗争政治视角中农民的利益或权利受损无关,也与当前我国土地制度（包括征地制度）所隐含的土地发展权国有的规定无关。村民在利益博弈过程中,因博弈能力的差异造成了村庄利益分配秩序的失衡,引发了村庄公共资源分配失序、村庄社会关系紧张、村庄历史遗留问题被激活等社会后果,侵蚀着村级组织的合法性。     

中国货币政策的利率规则——基于金融状况指数的分析

为检验中国中央银行是否已将金融市场状况纳入货币政策的框架,采用HTVPVAR模型的脉冲响应构建中国金融市场状况指数,检验结果显示:以金融市场状况指数为转换变量的STR模型形式的利率规则能较好地拟合实际数据,政策利率对通货膨胀缺口的变动存在非线性调整,且金融市场的景气（不景气）将增强（减弱）货币政策对通货膨胀缺口的反应程度。     

房产免税立法与税收公平的归位

房产税法律制度的改革折射的是社会演进与经济发展的必然趋势。经济发展加剧了社会成员间资源占有的不公平,但是房产税法律制度的发展却并没有弥合资源分配的不公平,反而在多元利益的指导下出现了三种维度的不公平：政府与市场之间的不公平、中央与地方之间的不公平以及居住者和投机者之间的不公平。刚性的税法常常为社会、经济所不融,免税的设计恰好可以弥补税法柔性的不足,在确保财政收入的情况下兼顾社会公平的维护,这也是深化财税体制改革背景下税法变革的秩序要求。房产税法律制度的变革应以量能课征为依据,以税收中性为准绳,区分房产的普遍性与特殊性,达成税收公平的改革效果。     

房地产企业的债务风险分析——“恒大地产”个案为例

房地产通常为高负债行业。经济增长进入新常态后,“去库存”亦成为我国房地产行业2016年的主基调,且战略性重组势在必行。以恒大地产为代表的一批地产巨头已逐渐掌握行业话语权,并悄然开始战略转型。通过对恒大地产的财务数据,从偿债能力角度进行分析,可知恒大地产虽然各偿债能力指标变化不大,整体负债水平保持基本稳定,但由于永续债按香港交易所准则而计入权益,掩盖了其负债的真实水平,若将永续债调入负债,则资产负债率会剧增。2015年恒大集团的骄人业绩就得益于高负债的支撑,因此,房地产行业的财务风险防范尤为重要。     

Stochastic comparisons on sample extremes of dependent and heterogenous observations

Stochastic comparison on order statistics from heterogeneous-dependent observations has been paid lots of attention recently. This paper devotes to investigating the ordering properties of order statistics from dependent observations. We derive the usual stochastic order for sample minimums and the second smallest order statistic, the dispersive order and the star order for minimums of samples having proportional hazards and Archimedean survival copulas. Similar ordering results are also obtained for maximums and the second largest order statistic of samples having proportional reversed hazards and Archimedean copulas. Several examples illustrating the main results are presented as well.     

中国农村民间借贷市场融资约束环境下利率定价模型分析——以广东农村实地调查数据为例

通过对广东农户民间借贷行为实地调查的问卷进行数据分析,了解农村民间借贷中的资金供求关系,发现存在的融资约束问题,进而对融资约束环境下民间借贷资金利率定价过程进行实证分析;着重考察农村民间借贷利率受公共信息和私人信息影响的程度,从借款人和贷款人的角度分别建立定价模型进行经验分析。结果显示,定价模型在F检验1%水平上显著,其他模型具有R2的统计显著性;反映借款用途的变量在10%水平上显著,其他变量均在5%水平上显著。这说明该市场利率能够反映公共信息的影响,借款人和贷款人的利率定价也反映了各自私人信息中相关风险和财务能力因素的影响,得到的经验结论主要是:第一,农村民间借贷市场是自主交易的金融市场;第二,其利率定价过程基本市场化。