A class of partially linear transformation models for recurrent gap times

In this article, we propose a general class of partially linear transformation models for recurrent gap time data, which extends the linear transformation models by incorporating non linear covariate effects and includes the partially linear proportional hazards and the partially linear proportional odds models as special cases. Both global and local estimating equations are developed to estimate the parametric and non parametric covariate effects, and the asymptotic properties of the resulting estimators are established. The finite-sample behavior of the proposed estimators is evaluated through simulation studies, and an application to a clinic study on chronic granulomatous disease is provided.     

Estimation of the parameter of a dynamically selected population for two subclasses of the exponential family

We introduce the problem of estimation of the parameters of a dynamically selected population in an infinite sequence of random variables and provide its application in the statistical inference based on record values from a non stationary scheme. We develop unbiased estimation of the parameters of the dynamically selected population and evaluate the risk of the estimators. We provide comparisons with natural estimators and obtain asymptotic results. Finally, we illustrate the applicability of the results using real data.     

“重陆轻海”与“通洋裕国”之海洋观刍议

明清两朝正处于世界性海洋历史发展的"千古变局"时代,但统治者沿袭传统模式,在立国思想上"重农抑商"、"重陆轻海",在国防战略上以"禁海"代替海防,禁海迁界、"守土防御",反映其海洋观念的淡薄;而东南沿海地方官员,尤其郑成功"通洋裕国"思想的提出和实践,显露出"以商立国",向海洋空间发展的意涵;传统时代"重陆轻海"与"通洋裕国"所反映的海洋观念,对国家民族发展的影响在某种程度上可以忽略不计,但大航海时代,海洋作为人类的第二生存空间影响到世界历史走向和发展格局时,"重陆轻海"观念所带来的深层影响会因此而改变国家和民族的命运。     

浅论近代青海女性社会地位变迁及其原因

近代是青海女性社会地位发生变迁的时期,本文从女性形体观的转变、女性教育等方面,论述了近代青海女性社会地位的变迁及其原因。     

民国的风俗变革与变革风俗

民国时期是时代大发展、社会大变革的时期 ,风俗的演进也进入到转型的阶段。风俗的全面变革促使了一系列变革风俗的产生。文章论述了当时风俗文化演进的三种趋势———对人的尊重、对迷信的涤荡以及政治因素的渗入 ,是民国风俗步入现代化进程的显著标志     

怒俅殖边:近代云南一次意义深远的边疆开发

民国初期 ,云南地方政府在滇西北怒江少数民族地区的设治经营 ,是云南边疆民族地区发展历史上的一个重大事件 ,它对怒江地区的社会发展和各民族的进步产生了极其重大而深远的影响。本文阐述了“怒俅殖边”这一历史进程 ,认为它使怒江地区的民族关系得到明显的调整与改善 ;使怒江经济社会发展进入一个新时期 ;遏制了英国侵略势头 ,对巩固滇西北边防产生了重要和深远的影响     

从“诠释学”到“诠释之道” ——中国诠释学研究的合法性依据与发展方向

依据中国学术的一贯传统,所谓“诠释学”实际上就是“诠释之道”,有古今之别,更有中西之异。据此,不仅可从根本上阐明中国诠释学研究的合法性,厘清中西诠释传统和理论之间的关系,更能获得中国诠释学研究在“后西方”时代的自我定位和发展方向。中国诠释学研究所要努力探索和建构的,乃是中华文明的现代诠释之道,它将继承和弘扬中华文明的诠释传统,自成一体而又具有充分的开放性、涵摄性和普适性。     

文学视角下的唐代诏敕研究--由唐武德九年六月至九月诏书看李世民弑兄夺权及李渊被迫让位的真相

初唐诏敕文是初唐时期皇帝于施政过程中发布的“王言政令”,是具有最高权威的下行政治公文,涉及到了当时的政治、经济、军事、律法、外交、教育、文化等多方面的史实,和《大唐创业起居注》、《唐太宗实录》等史籍一道,都属于第一手资料,史料价值很高,可补正史之阙。即便是那些旨在宣扬皇德的诏敕文,如皇帝的即位、改元、祭天、封禅诏书,也为我们考察当时的史实提供了很多有价值的线索。本文主要从文史结合的角度出发,通过考察唐武德九年六月至九月诏书,来挖掘其中隐藏的李世民弑兄夺权及李渊被迫让位的真相。      

历史能动与宿命及其文化浮沉 ——评唐浩明长篇历史小说《曾国藩》

唐浩明长篇历史小说《曾国藩》塑造了一位与时代错位的理学名臣与治世能臣形象,谱写了一段风起云涌的奋斗历史,演绎了一出历史宿命与时代背景交织的动人心弦的时代悲剧;其人物生命的奋力撞击,历史风云的本真抒写,则在审美维度之外引发出对传统文化的辛酸回顾、深度考察与全面反思。     

Collective versus Individual Effects in Survival Analysis of Multiple Failures

In survival analysis, we sometimes encounter data with multiple censored outcomes. Under certain scenarios, partial or even all covariates have ‘similar’ relative risks on the multiple outcomes in the Cox regression analysis. The similarity in covariate effects can be quantified using the proportionality of regression coefficients. Identifying the proportionality structure, or equivalently whether covariates have individual or collective effects, may have important scientific implications. In addition, it can lead to a smaller set of unknown parameters, which in turn results in more accurate estimation. In this article, we develop a novel approach for identifying the proportionality structure. Simulation shows the satisfactory performance of the proposed approach and its advantage over estimation under no assumed structure. We analyse three datasets to demonstrate the practical application of the proposed approach.