Bayesian nonparametric modelling of the link function in the single-index model using a Bernstein–Dirichlet process prior

This paper proposes the use of the Bernstein–Dirichlet process prior for a new nonparametric approach to estimating the link function in the single-index model (SIM). The Bernstein–Dirichlet process prior has so far mainly been used for nonparametric density estimation. Here we modify this approach to allow for an approximation of the unknown link function. Instead of the usual Gaussian distribution, the error term is assumed to be asymmetric Laplace distributed which increases the flexibility and robustness of the SIM. To automatically identify truly active predictors, spike-and-slab priors are used for Bayesian variable selection. Posterior computations are performed via a Metropolis-Hastings-within-Gibbs sampler using a truncation-based algorithm for stick-breaking priors. We compare the efficiency of the proposed approach with well-established techniques in an extensive simulation study and illustrate its practical performance by an application to nonparametric modelling of the power consumption in a sewage treatment plant.     

Noninformative priors for the between-group variance in the unbalanced one-way random effects model with heterogeneous error variances

For the unbalanced one-way random effects model with heterogeneous error variances, we propose the non-informative priors for the between-group variance and develop the first- and second-order matching priors. It turns out that the second-order matching priors do not exist and the reference prior and Jeffreys prior do not satisfy a first-order matching criterion. We also show that the first-order matching prior meets the frequentist target coverage probabilities much better than the Jeffreys prior and reference prior through simulation study, and the Bayesian credible intervals based on the matching prior and reference prior give shorter intervals than the existing confidence intervals by examples.     

目标导向层次分析方法

对含有抽象属性的多属性层次结构而言,层次分析法即AHP（包括DIS-AHP、ABS-AHP、IDE-AHP和SUP-AHP四种具体方法）会因比率比较基准缺失、权重内涵模糊不清或方案评价不保序而缺乏科学理性。为发展AHP,基于摆幅置权（SW）判断模式和多属性决策属性价值公度方法,首先给出了能为层次结构抽象属性上的SW判断提供支持的规约性多属性决策属性价值公度方法,然后由此并结合多属性价值理论给出了能够克服现有层次分析法内在缺陷的目标导向层次分析方法即ToAHP。相对于AHP,ToAHP在判断模式与权重内涵、方法建构的理论基础和相关假设检验、方案评价保序与其内在数理依据上具有明显的相对科学合理性。应用分析表明：在输入信息可比的条件下,ToAHP明显优于AHP的四种分析方法之中最具可信性的SUP-AHP方法。     

竞争中的参考价格效应及承诺

消费者的社会感知会影响其对产品和品牌的评价。当消费者进行购买选择时,经常会受到参考价格效应的影响。而广告和价格不仅是企业经常要考虑的重要决策,还会对参考价格产生重要影响。为此,一个值得研究的的问题是：在考虑参考价格效应的情况下,企业该怎样确定其动态广告和价格策略？
为了研究该问题,本文构建了一个广告和价格的动态模型,来研究一个双寡头市场环境下两个寡头企业的价格和广告决策,并以此分析参考价格效应的作用。具体而言,我们假定企业可以采用广告承诺和价格承诺中的一种,其中前者承诺其在一段时间内的广告投入量恒定不变,而后者确保价格不变。两种策略不仅会影响消费者的购买决策,也会影响竞争对手的选择。在上述假定下,我们探讨了两个寡头企业在都采用广告承诺、都采用价格承诺及一个企业采用广告承诺而另一个企业采用价格承诺等三种不同情形下的最优广告和价格决策,并以此分析了三种情形下参考价格效应对最优的广告投入及定价策略的影响。最后,通过数值分析,探讨了不同情形下企业的最优策略选择。     

荷兰集成农业对我国现代农业发展的启示

我国在发展现代农业、推进社会主义新农村建设的过程中,将会长期受到现代农业生产技术特别是有机农业生产技术推行成本高、风险大的制约.荷兰通过把复杂的现代农业生产管理技术集成到农业装备中,然后把集成技术装备植入现代农业生产的各环节,很好地解决了先进农业技术推行成本高、风险大的问题.长期以来,荷兰用这种集成技术装备的办法发展园艺业、奶牛业等复杂农业,取得了世界农业强国的地位,这是很值得我国发展现代农业借鉴的.     

目前遗传资源和传统知识法律保护机制国际探索的成就与不足——评CBD事先知情同意机制和FAO农民权机制

传统知识是长期以来传统部族在长期的生产生活实践中创造出来的知识、技术、经验的总称,是一种知识形态和知识产品。CBD等国际组织对遗传资源及有关传统知识的保护进行了多年的探索,在保护机制上取得了一定的创新。CBD开创的事先知情同意机制和FAO开创的农民权机制为其代表。两种机制均在物权层面设计了遗传资源及有关传统知识的保护规则,但前者具有较强的保障力,后者基本上还是一种道义意义上的权利。但只有提供知识产权保护方能充分实现传统部族在传统知识上的利益。     

闻一多新诗中的民族化建构思想研究

强调中西艺术的融会贯通,这是闻一多的一贯主张。闻一多认为,只有时时刻刻想着我是个中国人,才能做出真正的中国的新诗,因此,在他短暂的诗歌创作生涯中,他始终把新诗的民族性建构作为旨归并长期躬耕于此,他的诗歌表现了对民族历史与文化的关注,对祖国的热爱与对祖国命运的忧虑,对人民命运的同情与对黑暗势力的控诉,在内在精神方面呈现出显著的民族性。     

白寿彝先生的民俗学实践与理论

白寿彝的民俗学研究表现在两个方面,一是收集整理地方文化中的民俗资料,二是进行相关的民俗现象研究。前者主要体现在对《开封歌谣集》的收集整理上,作为民国时期民俗学研究领军人物顾颉刚先生的学生,白寿彝通过编辑这部歌谣集,来反映诸多社会问题,表达对下层民众的关注,追求唤起民智的目标。后者先后体现在若干单篇论文中,其新中国成立以前论文主要是对封建迷信的歌谣观的梳理,特点是多取材于正史;其新中国成立以后论文主旨在于辨析民俗学中的传说思想,特点是取材于当代人的研究成果和充分利用传世文献,同时批评相关无学理意义的论断。这两方面的民俗学研究体现出白寿彝在民俗学理论方面的深厚修养,以及民俗学与历史学密切结合、关注下层民众、适应时代发展需要的高度自觉,至今具有一定的示范和借鉴价值。     

A reference activity model for smart factory design and improvement

Smart manufacturing systems (SMSs) are envisioned to contain highly automated and IT-driven production systems. To address the complexity that arises in such systems, a standard and holistic model for describing its activities and their interrelationships is needed. This paper introduces a factory design and improvement (FDI) activity model and illustrates a case study of FDI in an electromechanical component factory. In essence, FDI is a reference activity model that encompasses a range of manufacturing system activities for designing and improving a factory during its initial development and also its operational phases. The FDI model shows not only the dependency between activities and manufacturing control levels but also the pieces of information and software functions each activity relies on. We envision that the availability of these pieces of information in digital form to integrate across the software functions will increase the agility of factory design and improvement projects. Therefore, our future work lies in contributing to standards for exchanging such information.