试论江泽民教育论述的系统统一性

江泽民教育思想论述是当今教育思想理论的重要宝库。文章从六个方面详实分析了江泽民教育论述的特质,认为它具有目标与手段、内容与形式的统一性、继承与发展的统一性、理论与实践的统一性、整体性与个性的统一性、世界性与民族性的统一性、时代性与前瞻性的统一性等系统特性。     

论明代诗话的发展与专门化

明代诗话是在前代诗话的基础上发展起来的,它对明诗的发展及清代诗话的形成起过积极的作用.明代诗话是中国诗话的发展期,在中国诗话史上占有重要的地位.明代诗话的发展可分为初期、中期和后期三个阶段:初期诗话以讲诗法为主;中期诗话主要是宣扬复古主义;后期诗话已成为专门之学,其中心议题是彻底批判复古思潮,宣扬个性解放.明人在宋、元诗话的基础上,把宋诗话的综合之学发展成为专门之学;他们还发扬元诗话偏重诗法的优点,把它充实提高,使之成为系统的诗学理论,创造了具有鲜明特色的明诗话.明代诗话的时代特色主要表现在时代性、针对性、理论化、系统化及专门化五个方面.     

基于因果关系的教育研究方法思考

探索、检验因果关系是教育科学研究的重要目标之一,相关分析、回归分析、路径分析等常用统计方法存在许多不足。结构方程模型是针对这些不足提出来的,从统计思路上,它具有优点,但还不够完善,应引起我国教育学界的注意。     

Geometric Method and Generalized Linear Models. Two Opposite Multiparametric Approaches Illustrated on a Sample of Pituitary Adenomas

We used two statistical methods to identify prognostic factors: a log-linear model (logistic and COX regression, based on the notions of linearity and multiplicative relative risk), and the CORICO method (ICOnography of CORrelations) based on the geometric significance of the correlation coefficient. We applied the methods to two different situations (a "case-control study' and a "historical cohort'). We show that the geometric exploratory tool is particularly suited to the analysis of small samples with a large number of variables. It could save time when setting up new study protocols. In this instance, the geometric approach highlighted, without preconceived ideas, the potential role of multihormonality in the course of pituitary adenoma and the unexpected influence of the date of tumour excision on the risk attached to haemorrhage.     

对格雷厄姆网络信息管理理论的述评

概要论述了网上色情信息与有害信息的区别及对网上信息进行分类的意义之后,介绍了格雷厄姆对网上色情信息运用道德与法律手段如何实施管理的理论,并对该理论进行了较为详细的评述。最后指出,法律对网上色情信息的管理应着重于大案要案,其他相对较小的案件则可交由道德手段、技术手段和经济手段去解决。     

全面建设小康社会中环境法制创新的理论概析

生态环境问题是我国现代化建设过程中必须解决的基本问题,走可持续发展道路是实现全面小康目标的必然选择,建立以可持续发展观为指导的环境法治系统是全面建设小康社会的重要保障.可持续发展理念对环境法制的基础理论和实践都会产生深远的影响.在建设小康社会新形势下,环境法制创新的目标领域涉及立法基本原则与调整理念更新、立法体系重构、基本对策及管理机制完善等诸方面.     

核准制IPO定价实证分析

本文用信息经济学的理论和计量经济学的实证分析方法研究了我国核准制下的新股定价问题 ,指出市场主体决策时的信息差异是造成新股发行价和上市价相背离的主要原因 ,并构建多元回归模型对这一假设进行了检验。     

Psychological taxing in Flemish municipalities

We analyse whether the psychological pricing in the private sector has a public sector counterpart in tax policy. Analysing the main theoretical arguments for the existence of price points, and applying them to the public sector, suggests that psychological taxing reveals itself by the use of non-0 ending tax rates. The tax rate endings of the local income taxes, which are set by 308 Flemish municipalities in the fiscal year 1998, suggests the presence of psychological taxing. Non-0 endings occur more frequently in municipalities where demand for public policy is more elastic (and where, therefore, the benefits to the politicians from setting a tax just below a tax point is higher). The pre-tax income inequality and the level of the tax rate positively affect psychological taxing. The latter effect is reinforced in those municipalities where the existing tax rate is above the average tax rate in neighbouring municipalities and below their neighbours’ minimum, although this effect has a limited effect and is offset the further below the minimum the tax is set.     

Robust confidence interval for a residual standard deviation

The residual standard deviation of a general linear model provides information about predictive accuracy that is not revealed by the multiple correlation or regression coefficients. The classic confidence interval for a residual standard deviation is hypersensitive to minor violations of the normality assumption and its robustness does not improve with increasing sample size. An approximate confidence interval for the residual standard deviation is proposed and shown to be robust to moderate violations of the normality assumption with robustness to extreme non-normality that improves with increasing sample size.     

Uncertainty Analysis for Computer Model Projections of Hurricane Losses

Projecting losses associated with hurricanes is a complex and difficult undertaking that is wrought with uncertainties. Hurricane Charley, which struck southwest Florida on August 13, 2004, illustrates the uncertainty of forecasting damages from these storms. Due to shifts in the track and the rapid intensification of the storm, real-time estimates grew from 2 to 3 billion dollars in losses late on August 12 to a peak of 50 billion dollars for a brief time as the storm appeared to be headed for the Tampa Bay area. The storm hit the resort areas of Charlotte Harbor near Punta Gorda and then went on to Orlando in the central part of the state, with early poststorm estimates converging on a damage estimate in the 28 to 31 billion dollars range. Comparable damage to central Florida had not been seen since Hurricane Donna in 1960. The Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Projection Methodology (FCHLPM) has recognized the role of computer models in projecting losses from hurricanes. The FCHLPM established a professional team to perform onsite (confidential) audits of computer models developed by several different companies in the United States that seek to have their models approved for use in insurance rate filings in Florida. The team's members represent the fields of actuarial science, computer science, meteorology, statistics, and wind and structural engineering. An important part of the auditing process requires uncertainty and sensitivity analyses to be performed with the applicant's proprietary model. To influence future such analyses, an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis has been completed for loss projections arising from use of a Holland B parameter hurricane wind field model. Uncertainty analysis quantifies the expected percentage reduction in the uncertainty of wind speed and loss that is attributable to each of the input variables.