便衣群体的社会剥夺之样态分析——N市城区某派出所“便衣”群体个案研究

采用参与式等资料收集方式对既不同于警察又区别于保安员的＂便衣＂进行社会学意义上的样态分析。通过调查了解到,这些便衣和普通人理解有区别,即通过社会招聘而来,工作隶属于派出所的刑警支队,打击辖区内的犯罪活动,身着便服的特殊保安员。研究发现,＂帕累托最优＂效应驱动他们加入便衣行列,在与警察的互动中他们产生了相对剥夺感,以及由...     

What Comes After the Prestige Disaster? An Entropic Approach to Modeling the Recurrence of Major Oil Tanker Spills in Galicia

A methodology is presented to investigate the recurrence of extraordinary events. The approach is fully general and complies with a canon of inference establishing a set of basic rationality requirements scientific reasoning should satisfy. In particular, we apply it to model the interarrival time between disastrous oil spills in the Galician coast in the northwest of Spain, one of the greatest risk areas in the world, as confirmed by the Prestige accident of November 2002. We formulate the problem within the logical probability framework, using plausible logic languages with observations to allow the appropriate expression of evidences. Therein, inference is regarded as the joint selection of a pair of reference and inferred probability distributions, which better encode the knowledge about potential times between incidents provided by the available evidences and other higher-order information at hand. To solve it, we employ the REF relative entropy method with fractile constraints. Next, we analyze the variability of the joint entropic solution, as knowledge that a time has elapsed since the last recorded spill is added, by conditioning the evidences. Attention is paid to the variability of two representative parameters: the average reference recurrence time and an inferred characteristic probability fractile for the time to an event. In contrast with classical results, the salient consequence is their nonconstancy with the elapsed time and the appearance of a variability pattern indicating an observational memory, even under the assumption of one-parameter exponential models, traditionally regarded as memoryless. Tanker accidentality is therefore dynamic, changing as time goes on with no further accidents. Generality of the methodology entails that identical conclusions would apply to hazard modeling of any other kind of extraordinary phenomena. This should be considered in risk assessment and management.     

“人权派”的思想言论自由及其局限性

“人权派”从功用的角度出发，揭示了思想言论自由之于个人与社会的价值，指出作为人权的思想言论自由就是批评政府及现政权所赖以建立的理论基础的自由，认为这项人权应“绝对不受法律的限制”，“绝对不受何种干涉”。本文系统地介绍了人权派关于思想言论自由的主张，充分肯定其积极的现实的意义，同时，文章也从分析思想自由(享有的人权、人身人格权)与言论自由(行使的人权、政治权利与自由)的不同性质入手，指出了人权派关于二者均属“绝对自由”的结论的局限性、片面性。     

Risk of a ‘revolution of rising expectations’ in China?

This article analyses developments in Chinese living standards with special focus on urban-rural inequalities. The analysis and discussion target the rapid economic lift, accompanied by inequalities and the risk of revolution of rising expectations in the last three decades. Although this economic lift brings China from one of the poorest countries in the world to the second largest economy globally, many are also concerned about social instability as a result of increasing inequalities and social gaps. We have examined existing data, including international statistics and Chinese national sources. It shows that average Chinese citizens, in general, have enjoyed improvements in their living standard, but an increasing gap in per capita disposable income between urban and rural residents is observable. The discussion section connects to results from secondary surveys. The conclusion is that conditions for feelings of relative deprivation are diminutive and so is the risk of a forthcoming revolution of rising expectations in China.     

基于灰色模糊理想解的资格预审评审模型

公开招标资格预审可以缩小承包商范围,减少招标单位的工作量。但是在其实行时存在用模糊语言变量评价的指标按现行资格预审评审方法不能有效处理这一问题,甚至存在因专家主观因素影响或暗箱操作而导致的评审过程不规范现象。为此,提出一种基于灰色关联度和理想解的多属性决策模型,综合考虑决策过程中的灰色信息和模糊信息,充分考虑招标人对指标的偏好性,利用模糊优先关系比较级的方法为指标合理赋权,通过比较方案与正负理想区间方案的灰色关联度和欧氏距离来构造相似接近度,从整体角度实现对潜在投标人的评价和排序。     

Commercial,non‐profit and governmental residential elderly care in Flanders: Differences in client selection and efficiency?

Verschuere B, Moray N, Decramer A. Commercial, non‐profit and governmental residential elderly care in Flanders: differences in client selection and efficiency? Inspired by New Public Management, governments have stimulated competition, outsourcing and privatisation in the public sector. Also, in care of the elderly, there has been a substantial increase in commercial provision. The present study explored the presumed differences in the performance of public (governmental), private non‐profit and private commercial elderly care organisations. We used quantitative indicators on the population of residential elderly care organisations in Flanders (Belgium). Although we found that commercial elderly care facilities tended to be more input‐efficient while non‐profit and public elderly care facilities tended to be more attentive to recruiting and housing residents with high care needs, these results need to be interpreted in light of the regulatory framework in which the different types of elderly care facilities operate.     

徐黑—埕北断阶区古岩溶测井相与演化模式

测井曲线是对所钻遇地层物性特征的直接反映,充分利用测井资料,有利于预测和识别古岩溶发育带。在构造背景分析基础上,依据古岩溶在钻井和测井上的显示,利用曲线组合对比方法,对岩溶地层进行了测井相分析,得出“四低二高”的古岩溶识别标志。根据区域构造演化史提出岩溶演化模式,指出多期的构造旋回,复杂的断块掀斜作用和长期的化学活动性流体的溶蚀是研究区古岩溶发育的主要因素。     

Four elephants in the room: A reflective analysis of the wailing rage displayed by Baltimore youth after Freddie Gray’s death

Eliminating health disparities is our ethical and generational responsibility to protect and promote the health of all Americans. However, we cannot effectively eliminate health disparities in the United States unless we acknowledge and confront the three social culprits that threaten the elimination of health disparities: poverty, racism, and inequities. When addressing communal health, a multigenerational intentionality approach is needed to combat determinants of health. Retrospectively, we used the 2015 wailing rage demonstrated by youth in Baltimore City after the death of Freddie Gray Jr. to introduce our Multigenerational Intentionality to Communal Health conceptual framework. The conceptual framework directs any determinants of health process (i.e. planning, policy, programming, practice, etc.), to decisively utilize the looking backward-thinking forward method to explore the intersectionality of how generational determinants of health (e.g. poverty, racism, disparities and inequities) threaten communal health.     

Income,deprivation and economic stress in the enlarged European Union

At risk of poverty indicators based on relative income measures suggest that within the enlarged EU societies located at quite different points on a continuum of affluence have similar levels of poverty. Substantial differences in levels of income between societies do not in themselves invalidate this approach. However, the relative income approach fails to capture the fact that, if countries are grouped in terms of level of GDP, between economic cluster differences in life-style deprivation are sharper at lower income levels. Support for the argument relating to restricted reference groups is found in relation to the contrast between the twelve most affluent EU countries and all others. The limitations of relative income poverty lines have little to do with the process of enlargement as such. Instead the major problem involves the weak association between income and deprivation in the more affluent countries. However, as a consequence of such difficulties, such indicators do not provide entirely meaningful comparisons of levels of disadvantage across economic clusters. The current analysis, rather than supporting the alternative of a focus on absolute income or an EU wide poverty line, suggests that we should take the argument for adopting a multidimensional approach to the measurement of poverty more seriously.