Finding the path beyond reputation repair: A structural topic modeling analysis of the crisis communication paradigm in public relations

This research utilizes computational methods to examine crisis communication scholarship from 2010 to 2020 in two studies with a census of all articles in Public Relations Review and the Journal of Public Relations Research (n = 1293 articles, 7400,685 words). Results indicate crisis scholarship has expanded beyond its prior focus on reputation repair. Situational crisis communication theory and image repair are compared in volume of scholarship and methodological affinity. Social media, SCCT, and media relations are identified as central topics within crisis communication scholarship.     

Repeated Games with Differential Time Preferences

When players have identical time preferences, the set of feasible repeated game payoffs coincides with the convex hull of the underlying stage- game payoffs. Moreover, all feasible and individually rational payoffs can be sustained by equilibria if the players are sufficiently patient. Neither of these facts generalizes to the case of different time preferences. First, players can mutually benefit from trading payoffs across time. Hence, the set of feasible repeated game payoffs is typically larger than the convex hull of the underlying stage-game payoffs. Second, it is not usually the case that every trade plan that guarantees individually rational payoffs can be sustained by an equilibrium, no matter how patient the players are. This paper provides a simple characterization of the sets of Nash and of subgame perfect equilibrium payoffs in two-player repeated games.     

State estimation for aoristic models

Aoristic data can be described by a marked point process in time in which the points cannot be observed directly but are known to lie in observable intervals, the marks. We consider Bayesian state estimation for the latent points when the marks are modeled in terms of an alternating renewal process in equilibrium and the prior is a Markov point process. We derive the posterior distribution, estimate its parameters and present some examples that illustrate the influence of the prior distribution. The model is then used to estimate times of occurrence of interval censored crimes.     

交错级数敛散性的一个判别定理

提出了交错级数敛散性的一个新的判别定理.该定理的判别式为极限形式,运用其判别交错级数的敛散性非常简便.     

Approximate exchangeability and de Finetti priors in 2022

This is a review paper, beginning with de Finetti's work on partial exchangeability, continuing with his approach to approximate exchangeability, and then his (surprising) approach to assigning informative priors in nonstandard situations. Recent progress on Markov chain Monte Carlo methods for drawing conclusions is supplemented by a review of work by Gerencsér and Ottolini on getting honest bounds for rates of convergence. The paper concludes with a speculative approach to combining classical asymptotics with Monte Carlo. This promises real speed-ups and makes a nice example of how theory and computation can interact.