Some new construction of circular weakly balanced repeated measurements designs in periods of two different sizes

Abstract

Balanced repeated measurements designs (RMDs) balance out the residual effects. Williams Latin square designs work as minimal combinatorial balanced as well as variance balanced for RMDs for p (period sizes) = v (number of treatments). If minimal balanced RMDs cannot be constructed for the situations where p must be less than v then weakly balanced RMDs should be preferred. In this article, some generators are developed to generate circular weakly balanced RMDs in periods of two different sizes. To obtain the proposed designs, some construction procedures are also described for some of the cases where we could not develop generators.     

Characterizing Dose-Response Relationships in Multiple Cancer Bioassays

In the evaluation of chemical compounds for carcinogenic risk, regulatory agencies such as the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and National Toxicology Program (NTP) have traditionally fit a dose-response model to data from rodent bioassays, and then used the fitted model to estimate a Virtually Safe Dose or the dose corresponding to a very small increase (usually 10(-6)) in risk over background. Much recent interest has been directed at incorporating additional scientific information regarding the properties of the specific chemical under investigation into the risk assessment process, including biological mechanisms of cancer induction, metabolic pathways, and chemical structure and activity. Despite the fact that regulatory agencies are currently poised to allow use of nonlinear dose-response models based on the concept of an underlying threshold for nongenotoxic chemicals, there have been few attempts to investigate the overall relationship between the shape of dose-response curves and mutagenicity. Using data from an historical database of NTP cancer bioassays, the authors conducted a repeated-measures Analysis of the estimated shape from fitting extended Weibull dose-response curves. It was concluded that genotoxic chemicals have dose-response curves that are closer to linear than those for nongenotoxic chemicals, though on average, both types of compounds have dose-response curves that are convex and the effect of genotoxicity is small.     

The Identification of Multiple Outliers in ARIMA Models

Abstract

There are three main problems in the existing procedures for detecting outliers in ARIMA models. The first one is the biased estimation of the initial parameter values that may strongly affect the power to detect outliers. The second problem is the confusion between level shifts and innovative outliers when the series has a level shift. The third problem is masking. We propose a procedure that keeps the powerful features of previous methods but improves the initial parameter estimate, avoids the confusion between innovative outliers and level shifts and includes joint tests for sequences of additive outliers in order to solve the masking problem. A Monte Carlo study and one example of the performance of the proposed procedure are presented.     

Standards of Probability Sampling for Legal Evidence

Brief recognition is given to bicentennials of the death of James Stirling (1692–1770) and birth of Ferdinand Rudolph Hassler (1770–1843); to sesquicentennials of the publication of the 3rd definitive edition of Laplace's Théorie analytique des probabilités, and of the births of William Chauvenet (1820–1870) and Isaac Todhunter (1820–1884); to centennials of the births of Louis Bachelier (1870–1946) and Jean Perrin (1870–1942); and to the semicentennial of the initial publication (1920) of Metron, an International Review of Statistics.     

Universal-deterministic and probabilistic hypotheses in operations management research: a discussion paper

Abstract

Based on Karl Popper’s approach to science, this conceptual article aims at promoting a discussion on important issues debated in the OM literature. Our focus is on the different types of hypotheses used in OM investigations and the implications of this for the formulation and testing of theory with an emphasis on case study research. Given that Popper’s methodology calls for an adequate testing of scientific propositions (universal-deterministic or probabilistic), we illustrate how case study research can be used to conduct a severe test of a scientific theory. It is also explained how case studies can be utilized to propose universal-deterministic hypotheses that should then be tested. Our investigation further discusses why it is important to clearly acknowledge the differences between the two types of hypotheses. Otherwise, inadequate research designs, deficient policy advice, and other similar problems, can arise. Topics for future research and discussion are also offered.     

A simulation comparison of estimators for a regression coefficient under differential non-response

We consider the estimation of a regression coefficient in a linear regression when observations are missing due to nonresponse. Response is assumed to be determined by a nonobservable variable which is linearly related to an observable variable. The values of the observable variable are assumed to be available for the whole sample but the variable is not includsd in the regression relationship of interest . Several alternative estimators have been proposed for this situation under various simplifying assumptions. A sampling theory approach provides three alternative estimatrs by considering the observatins as obtained from a sub-sample, selected on the basis of the fully observable variable , as formulated by Nathan and Holt (1980). Under an econometric approach, Heckman (1979) proposed a two-stage (probit and OLS) estimator which is consistent under specificconditions. A simulation comparison of the four estimators and the ordinary least squares estimator , under multivariate normality of all the variables involved, indicates that the econometric approach estimator is not robust to departures from the conditions underlying its derivation, while two of the other estimators exhibit a similar degree of stable performance over a wide range of conditions. Simulations for a non-normal distribution show that gains in performance can be obtained if observations on the independent variable are available for the whole population.     

A unified approach to estimation of nonlinear mixed effects and Berkson measurement error models

Mixed effects models and Berkson measurement error models are widely used. They share features which the author uses to develop a unified estimation framework. He deals with models in which the random effects (or measurement errors) have a general parametric distribution, whereas the random regression coefficients (or unobserved predictor variables) and error terms have nonparametric distributions. He proposes a second-order least squares estimator and a simulation-based estimator based on the first two moments of the conditional response variable given the observed covariates. He shows that both estimators are consistent and asymptotically normally distributed under fairly general conditions. The author also reports Monte Carlo simulation studies showing that the proposed estimators perform satisfactorily for relatively small sample sizes. Compared to the likelihood approach, the proposed methods are computationally feasible and do not rely on the normality assumption for random effects or other variables in the model.     

Bivariate Longitudinal Model for Detecting Prescribing Change in Two Drugs Simultaneously with Correlated Errors

Bivariate responses of repeated measures data are usually analysed as two separate responses in the literature by several authors. The two responses usually tend to be related in some way and analysing this data jointly presents an opportunity to account for the joint movement, which may impact on the conclusions reached compared to analysing the responses separately. In this paper, a bivariate regression model with random effects (linear mixed model) is used to detect a change if any in the prescribing habits in the UK at the general practice (family medicine) level due to an educational intervention given repeated measures data before and after the intervention and a control group. The message was to increase the prescribing of one drug while simultaneously decreasing the prescribing of another. The effects of modelling a bivariate auto-regressive process are evaluated.     

Robust mixture modeling using the skew <Emphasis Type="Italic">t</Emphasis> distribution

A finite mixture model using the Student's t distribution has been recognized as a robust extension of normal mixtures. Recently, a mixture of skew normal distributions has been found to be effective in the treatment of heterogeneous data involving asymmetric behaviors across subclasses. In this article, we propose a robust mixture framework based on the skew t distribution to efficiently deal with heavy-tailedness, extra skewness and multimodality in a wide range of settings. Statistical mixture modeling based on normal, Student's t and skew normal distributions can be viewed as special cases of the skew t mixture model. We present analytically simple EM-type algorithms for iteratively computing maximum likelihood estimates. The proposed methodology is illustrated by analyzing a real data example.     

现代经济学多重视角下的信用缺失分析

信用是市场经济中重要且难获得的宝贵资源。鉴于信用缺失对中国市场经济造成的制约，在前人研究的基础上，从产权安排、信息不对称、重复博弈等现代经济学视角探讨信用缺失的内在机理。