Rank correlation methods for missing data

The subject of rank correlation has had a rich history. It has been used in numerous applications in tests for trend and for independence. However, little has been said about how to define rank correlation when the data are incomplete. The practice has often been to ignore missing observations and to define rank correlation for the smaller complete record. We propose a new class of measures of rank correlation which are based on a notion of distance between incomplete rankings. There is the potential for a significant increase in efficiency over the approach which ignores missing observations as demonstrated by a specific case.     

ON LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATION FOR DISCRETELY OBSERVED MARKOV JUMP PROCESSES

The parameter estimation problem for a Markov jump process sampled at equidistant time points is considered here. Unlike the diffusion case where a closed form of the likelihood function is usually unavailable, here an explicit expansion of the likelihood function of the sampled chain is provided. Under suitable ergodicity conditions on the jump process, the consistency and the asymptotic normality of the likelihood estimator are established as the observation period tends to infinity. Simulation experiments are conducted to demonstrate the computational facility of the method.     

A MULTIVARIATE NORMAL MODEL FOR PEDIGREE AND LONGITUDINAL DATA AND THE SOFTWARE 'FISHER'

In 1918 R.A. Fisher published an interpretation of covariation between relatives in terms of Mendelian inheritance, which has allowed inference on genetic and environmental components of variation from plant, animal and human pedigree data. Fisher had introduced maximum likelihood six years earlier. His 1918 paper abo contained the basics of linear regression and decomposition of variance. These concepts have now been united to allow flexible modelling of the mean and covariance structure of non-independent data on continuous traits, using maximum likelihood under a multivariate normal assumption. FISHER is a software package, designed for pedigree analysis and easily adapted for repeated measures and longitudinal data analysis. A range of applications illustrate FISHER as a useful statistical tool. Issues related to assumptions, tests-of-fit, and robustness of inference are discussed.     

重复抵押若干问题的探讨

重复抵押是指抵押人就同一财产在同一价值范围内向两个以上的债权设定抵押。文章通过对各国立法例的分析,结合法理和实践,得出重复抵押不应予以禁止与限制的结论,并对抵押权顺位固定主义提出质疑,主张采抵押权升进主义。     

基于重复博弈的闽台港口群发展策略

随着两岸交往的不断深入,闽台港口群的竞争与合作成为摆在政府和企业面前非常重要的课题。首先阐述了当前闽台两地港口群运行总体情况,并对比分析了闽台两地港口群各自发展的优势与劣势所在。通过模糊综合评判法,分析了当前闽台两地港口群的竞争实力,并在此基础上建立闽台港口群类"囚徒困境"博弈模型,确定合作是闽台港口群发展所能采取的最优策略,最后提出闽台港口群合作发展对策及如何解决闽台港口群发展所遇到的瓶颈问题。     

A theory of forward induction in finitely repeated games

A forward induction solution for finitely repeated games with complete information is developed. This notion is motivated in terms of its implications on the way deviations affect the opponents' expectations about the future behavior of the deviating player. We argue that the inability of the notion of perfect equilibrium to take account of forward induction is a key factor responsible for a number of difficulties encountered in the use of perfect equilibria in repeated games. It is then shown that the solution proposed in this paper remedies some of these problems in the study of three important classes of repeated games: (i) finitely repeated coordination games; (ii) repeated games where one long-term player plays a sequence of short-term players; (iii) repeated battle of the sexes games.     

The Evolution of Cooperative Strategies for Asymmetric Social Interactions

How can cooperation be achieved between self-interested individuals in commonly-occurring asymmetric interactions where agents have different positions? Should agents use the same strategies that are appropriate for symmetric social situations? We explore these questions through the asymmetric interaction captured in the indefinitely repeated investment game (IG). In every period of this game, the first player decides how much of an endowment he wants to invest, then this amount is tripled and passed to the second player, who finally decides how much of the tripled investment she wants to return to the first player. The results of three evolutionary studies demonstrate that the best-performing strategies for this asymmetric game differ from those for a similar but symmetric game, the indefinitely repeated Prisoner’s dilemma game. The strategies that enable cooperation for the asymmetric IG react more sensitively to exploitation, meaning that cooperation can more easily break down. Furthermore, once cooperation has stopped, it is much more difficult to reestablish than in symmetric situations. Based on these results, the presence of asymmetry in an interaction appears to be an important factor affecting adaptive behavior in these common social situations.     

Investigation of mixed model repeated measures analyses and non‐linear random coefficient models in the context of long‐term efficacy data

The longitudinal data from 2 published clinical trials in adult subjects with upper limb spasticity (a randomized placebo‐controlled study [NCT01313299] and its long‐term open‐label extension [NCT01313312]) were combined. Their study designs involved repeat intramuscular injections of abobotulinumtoxinA (Dysport®), and efficacy endpoints were collected accordingly. With the objective of characterizing the pattern of response across cycles, Mixed Model Repeated Measures analyses and Non‐Linear Random Coefficient (NLRC) analyses were performed and their results compared. The Mixed Model Repeated Measures analyses, commonly used in the context of repeated measures with missing dependent data, did not involve any parametric shape for the curve of changes over time. Based on clinical expectations, the NLRC included a negative exponential function of the number of treatment cycles, with its asymptote and rate included as random coefficients in the model. Our analysis focused on 2 specific efficacy parameters reflecting complementary aspects of efficacy in the study population. A simulation study based on a similar study design was also performed to further assess the performance of each method under different patterns of response over time. This highlighted a gain of precision with the NLRC model, and most importantly the need for its assumptions to be verified to avoid potentially biased estimates. These analyses describe a typical situation and the conditions under which non‐linear mixed modeling can provide additional insights on the behavior of efficacy parameters over time. Indeed, the resulting estimates from the negative exponential NLRC can help determine the expected maximal effect and the treatment duration required to reach it.     

Moments-Based Approximation to the Renewal Function

Asymptotic behavior of the number of independent identically distributed observations in a left or right neighborhood of k _n th order statistic from the sample of size n, for k _n /n → α ? [0, 1], is studied. It appears that the limiting laws are of the Poisson type.     

Correlated and misclassified binary observations in complex surveys

Misclassifications in binary responses have long been a common problem in medical and health surveys. One way to handle misclassifications in clustered or longitudinal data is to incorporate the misclassification model through the generalized estimating equation (GEE) approach. However, existing methods are developed under a non-survey setting and cannot be used directly for complex survey data. We propose a pseudo-GEE method for the analysis of binary survey responses with misclassifications. We focus on cluster sampling and develop analysis strategies for analyzing binary survey responses with different forms of additional information for the misclassification process. The proposed methodology has several attractive features, including simultaneous inferences for both the response model and the association parameters. Finite sample performance of the proposed estimators is evaluated through simulation studies and an application using a real dataset from the Canadian Longitudinal Study on Aging.