Inflated statistical significance of student's t test associated with small intersubject correlation

The independence assumption in statistical significance testing becomes increasingly crucial and unforgiving as sample size increases. Seemingly, inconsequential violations of this assumption can substantially increase the probability of a Type I error if sample sizes are large. In the case of Student's t test, it is found that correlations within samples in a range from 0.01 to 0.05 can lead to rejection of a true null hypothesis with high probability, if N is 50, 100 or larger.     

“规范二分化”下的一事不再理：基于程序安定的考量

一事不再理的涵义和作用机理需要明确。通过与既判力、重复诉讼的比较可厘清一事不再理的涵义。“规范二分化冶下一事不再理的作用机理是：作为行为规范，其根据当事人、诉的声明及主要争点联动识别“一事冶，使对“一事冶的再诉因取效不能而被驳回；作为评价规范，其基于程序安定的法经济学考量，因势制宜地对“二同冶下不同类型的“一事冶给予反诉、合并、中止的评价。     

A recursive approach for estimating missing observations in an univariate time series

A linear recursive technique that does not use the Kalman filter approach is proposed to estimate missing observations in an univariate time series. It is assumed that the series follows an invertible ARIMA model. The procedure is based on the restricted forecasting approach, and the recursive linear estimators are optimal in terms of minimum mean-square error.     

调整增值税与营业税征税范围及其调控功能的思考

我国"十二五"规划在加快财税体制改革中提出:扩大增值税征收范围,相应调减营业税等税收。营改增政策的制定意味着增值税扩围改革成为财税体制改革的一个重要内容。增值税和营业税在税制改革后发生了很大变化,尤其在税目、税率方面的变化最为显著,这些改革应用于实际工作中所产生的效果值得关注。利用营业税改增值税在现代服务业实施的实例探讨改革在实施过程中的得与失。     

健全监管法律法规严禁发布虚假广告

针对虚假广告泛滥的情况,列举违法行为的种种表现,探究其背后的复杂原因--法制不健全是虚假广告屡禁不止的症结所在.对完善广告法制建设提出了具体的建议,旨在推动我国广告法律法规的修改工作早日列入议事日程,以便进一步规范广告市场,使蓬勃兴起的广告业走上健康发展之路.     

论“反复自白”的效力

在刑事诉讼中,犯罪嫌疑人、被告人可能反复自白,形成多份甚至十数份口供,而一旦出现刑讯逼供等非法取供问题,则是否排除以及如何排除反复自白遂成为困扰实务界的难题。反复自白应当排除,并非基于"毒树之果"规则,而是因为非法证据排除规则具有延续效力。从我国现行司法体制和刑事诉讼机制出发,对反复自白应当坚持全部排除的观点,即只要刑讯逼供等非法取供行为一经查实,则犯罪嫌疑人所作的全部有罪供述均应无例外地一体排除。反复自白排除后,在对遭受刑讯逼供的被告人提供心理辅导的前提下,法官可以重新依法对被告人展开讯问,若被告人仍作出有罪供述,该口供可以作为定案根据。     

An estimation in a linear model with response-related error

A maximum likelihood solution is presented for analyzing data which arise from a linear model whose error term is assumed to have variance proportional to some unknown power of the response. An efficient iterative method for solving the likelihood equations is obtained which incoporates use of a transfomation to orthogonalize the two variance paramaters. Assessments of the method are made through simulations study and the results are compared with those of the ordinary least squares. Examples from the literature are included to illustrate the method and also to compare the results with a weighted least squares estimates.     

企业声誉问题的经济学分析

声誉机制是维护市场经济有效运行的重要机制,在现代市场经济中,声誉也越来越成为企业可持续发展的关键要素。本文从经济学角度,首先阐述了企业声誉的涵义及其特征;其次运用一次博弈和重复博弈剖析了企业声誉机制生成的机理;最后结合相应的结论提出了建立企业声誉机制的对策。     

观测值对最小二乘估计的影响

利用平差因子讨论了在Gauss-Markov模型中,去掉一个观测值对最小二乘估计的影响,并讨论了当平差因子Jii接近1时,去掉对应的观测值会引起解差的异常.     

旅游景区经营权转让探析

旅游景区的经营权转让问题倍受人们关注,正反双方各执己见,反方担心经营权转让过程中会导致国有资产流失,经营权转让后不利于景区可持续发展。由于作为转让方的政府和作为受让方的企业处于一个重复博弈的纳什均衡中,企业为了其长期利益必然会保护景区的环境和资源,政府通过转让经营权来实现景区的综合价值,推动景区发展是完全可行的。要达到景区经营权转让的既定目的,政府必须在转让前后做好立法、景区资产评估、监督管理等工作。