Inference and Missing Data: Asymptotic Results

In Rubin (1976) the missing at random (MAR) and missing completely at random (MCAR) conditions are discussed. It is concluded that the MAR condition allows one to ignore the missing data mechanism when doing likelihood or Bayesian inference but also that the stronger MCAR condition is in some sense the weakest generally sufficient condition allowing (conditional) frequentist inference while ignoring the missing data mechanism. In this paper it is shown that (a slightly strengthened version of) the MAR condition is sufficient to yield ordinary large sample results for estimators and test statistics and thus may be used for (asymptotic) frequentist inference.     

Optimal Ordering Policies for Inventory Problems With Dynamic Information Delays

Information delays exist when the most recent inventory information available to the Inventory Manager (IM) is dated. In other words, the IM observes only the inventory level that belongs to an earlier period. Such situations are not uncommon, and they arise when it takes a while to process the demand data and pass the results to the IM. We introduce dynamic information delays as a Markov process into the standard multiperiod stochastic inventory problem with backorders. We develop the concept of a reference inventory position. We show that this position along with the magnitude of the latest observed delay and the age of this observation are sufficient statistics for finding the optimal order quantities. Furthermore, we establish that the optimal ordering policy is of state‐dependent base‐stock type with respect to the reference inventory position (or state‐dependent (s, S) type if there is a fixed ordering cost). The optimal base stock and (s, S) levels depend on the magnitude of the latest observed delay and the age of this observation. Finally, we study the sensitivity of the optimal base stock and the optimal cost with respect to the sufficient statistics.     

Stepwise local influence in generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity models

Detection of outliers or influential observations is an important work in statistical modeling, especially for the correlated time series data. In this paper we propose a new procedure to detect patch of influential observations in the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model. Firstly we compare the performance of innovative perturbation scheme, additive perturbation scheme and data perturbation scheme in local influence analysis. We find that the innovative perturbation scheme give better result than other two schemes although this perturbation scheme may suffer from masking effects. Then we use the stepwise local influence method under innovative perturbation scheme to detect patch of influential observations and uncover the masking effects. The simulated studies show that the new technique can successfully detect a patch of influential observations or outliers under innovative perturbation scheme. The analysis based on simulation studies and two real data sets show that the stepwise local influence method under innovative perturbation scheme is efficient for detecting multiple influential observations and dealing with masking effects in the GARCH model.     

Analysis of the performance of test statistics for detection of outliers (additive,innovative, transient,and level shift) in AR (1) processes

Outlier detection has always been of interest for researchers and data miners. It has been well researched in different knowledge and application domains. This study aims at exploring the correctly identifying outliers using most commonly applied statistics. We evaluate the performance of AO, IO, LS, and TC as vulnerability to spurious outliers by means of empirical level of significance (ELS), power of the test indicating the sensitivity of the statistical tests in detecting changes and the vulnerability to masking of outliers in terms of misspecification frequencies are determined. We have observed that the sampling distribution of test statistic η_tp; tp = AO,?IO,?LS,?TC in case of AR(1) model is connected with the values of n and φ. The sampling distribution of η_TC is less concentrated than the sampling distribution of η_AO, η_IO, and η_LS. In AR(1) process, empirical critical values for 1%, 5%, and 10% upper percentiles are found to be higher than those generally used. We have also found the evidence that the test statistics for transient change (TC) needs to be revisited as the test statistics η_TC is found to be eclipsed by η_AO,?η_LS and η_IO at different δ values. TC keeps on confusing with IO and AO, and at extreme δ values it just gets equal to AO and LS.     

Universal-deterministic and probabilistic hypotheses in operations management research: a discussion paper

Abstract

Based on Karl Popper’s approach to science, this conceptual article aims at promoting a discussion on important issues debated in the OM literature. Our focus is on the different types of hypotheses used in OM investigations and the implications of this for the formulation and testing of theory with an emphasis on case study research. Given that Popper’s methodology calls for an adequate testing of scientific propositions (universal-deterministic or probabilistic), we illustrate how case study research can be used to conduct a severe test of a scientific theory. It is also explained how case studies can be utilized to propose universal-deterministic hypotheses that should then be tested. Our investigation further discusses why it is important to clearly acknowledge the differences between the two types of hypotheses. Otherwise, inadequate research designs, deficient policy advice, and other similar problems, can arise. Topics for future research and discussion are also offered.     

Dealing with Ties in Failure Time Data

In dealing with ties in failure time data the mechanism by which the data are observed should be considered. If the data are discrete, the process is relatively simple and is determined by what is actually observed. With continuous data, ties are not supposed to occur, but they do because the data are grouped into intervals (even if only rounding intervals). In this case there is actually a non–identifiability problem which can only be resolved by modelling the process. Various reasonable modelling assumptions are investigated in this paper. They lead to better ways of dealing with ties between observed failure times and censoring times of different individuals. The current practice is to assume that the censoring times occur after all the failures with which they are tied.     

Optimal Change-point Estimation in Inverse Problems

We develop a method of estimating a change-point of an otherwise smooth function in the case of indirect noisy observations. As two paradigms we consider deconvolution and non-parametric errors-in-variables regression. In a similar manner to well-established methods for estimating change-points in non-parametric regression, we look essentially at the difference of one-sided kernel estimators. Because of the indirect nature of the observations we employ deconvoluting kernels. We obtain an estimate of the change-point by the extremal point of the differences between these two-sided kernel estimators. We derive rates of convergence for this estimator. They depend on the degree of ill-posedness of the problem, which derives from the smoothness of the error density. Analysing the Hellinger modulus of continuity of the problem we show that these rates are minimax     

Estimating likelihoods for spatio-temporal models using importance sampling

This paper describes how importance sampling can be applied to estimate likelihoods for spatio-temporal stochastic models of epidemics in plant populations, where observations consist of the set of diseased individuals at two or more distinct times. Likelihood computation is problematic because of the inherent lack of independence of the status of individuals in the population whenever disease transmission is distance-dependent. The methods of this paper overcome this by partitioning the population into a number of sectors and then attempting to take account of this dependence within each sector, while neglecting that between-sectors. Application to both simulated and real epidemic data sets show that the techniques perform well in comparison with existing approaches. Moreover, the results confirm the validity of likelihood estimates obtained elsewhere using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods.     

Two zs are Better than One

Given only a random sample of observations, the usual estimator for the population mean is the sample mean. If additional information is provided it might be possible in some situations to obtain a better estimator. The situation considered here is when the variable whose mean is sought is composed of factors that are themselves observable. In the basic case, the variable can be expressed as the product of two, independent, more basic variables, but we also consider the case of more than two, the effect of correlation, and when there are observation costs.     

A One-Sided Rank Test for Multivariate Censored Data

An asymptotically distribution-free test is proposed for testing the equality of two multivariate failure distributions against a particular one-sided alternative based on censored observations. This test may be interpreted as a multivariate one-sided Gehan test. The consistency of the test is established. An illustrative example is given.