Estimation of dependence between paired correlated failure times in the presence of covariate measurement error

Summary. In many biomedical studies, covariates are subject to measurement error. Although it is well known that the regression coefficients estimators can be substantially biased if the measurement error is not accommodated, there has been little study of the effect of covariate measurement error on the estimation of the dependence between bivariate failure times. We show that the dependence parameter estimator in the Clayton–Oakes model can be considerably biased if the measurement error in the covariate is not accommodated. In contrast with the typical bias towards the null for marginal regression coefficients, the dependence parameter can be biased in either direction. We introduce a bias reduction technique for the bivariate survival function in copula models while assuming an additive measurement error model and replicated measurement for the covariates, and we study the large and small sample properties of the dependence parameter estimator proposed.     

Conditional Likelihood Estimators for Hidden Markov Models and Stochastic Volatility Models

ABSTRACT.  This paper develops a new contrast process for parametric inference of general hidden Markov models, when the hidden chain has a non-compact state space. This contrast is based on the conditional likelihood approach, often used for ARCH-type models. We prove the strong consistency of the conditional likelihood estimators under appropriate conditions. The method is applied to the Kalman filter (for which this contrast and the exact likelihood lead to asymptotically equivalent estimators) and to the discretely observed stochastic volatility models.     

增强邓小平理论课教学时效性的切几点

应该选好切入点,与时俱进地增强邓小平理论课的教学时效性。课堂讲授的重要切入,应以学生为中心,抓兴奋点,预留老师“答记者问”时间,精心设计讨论;实践参与的重要切入,则在于联系改革实际的典型事例,注重用参观,社会调查等方式增强学生的社会责任感和判断力。     

ADDITIVE MODELS WITH PREDICTORS SUBJECT TO MEASUREMENT ERROR

This paper develops a likelihood‐based method for fitting additive models in the presence of measurement error. It formulates the additive model using the linear mixed model representation of penalized splines. In the presence of a structural measurement error model, the resulting likelihood involves intractable integrals, and a Monte Carlo expectation maximization strategy is developed for obtaining estimates. The method's performance is illustrated with a simulation study.     

公民权与美国工业化时期缩短工时运动研究

在工业化时期,美国人们形成了"私人时间"的观念。他们普遍相信,过长的工时侵犯了自己的私人时间,而拥有私人时间是共和国公民的天然权利。这种思想成为缩短工时运动的重要思想基础,促进运动的蓬勃发展。然而,受契约自由传统的影响,运动仅取得了有限的成就,工人获得合理工作时间和私人时间的路途仍很艰辛漫长。     

Maximum Likelihood Inference for Log-linear Models Subject to Constraints of Double Monotone Dependence

To model an hypothesis of double monotone dependence between two ordinal categorical variables A and B usually a set of symmetric odds ratios defined on the joint probability function is subject to linear inequality constraints. Conversely in this paper two sets of asymmetric odds ratios defined, respectively, on the conditional distributions of A given B and on the conditional distributions of B given A are subject to linear inequality constraints. If the joint probabilities are parameterized by a saturated log-linear model, these constraints are nonlinear inequality constraints on the log-linear parameters. The problem here considered is a non-standard one both for the presence of nonlinear inequality constraints and for the fact that the number of these constraints is greater than the number of the parameters of the saturated log-linear model.This work has been supported by the COFIN 2002 project, references 2002133957_002, 2002133957_004. Preliminary findings have been presented at SIS (Società Italiana di Statistica) Annual Meeting, Bari, 2004.     

Making the Best of a Bad Job? Female Part‐Timers’ Orientations and Attitudes to Work

This article uses data from 50 qualitative interviews with female part‐time workers in low‐level jobs in Britain to illustrate their attitudes, orientations and aspirations towards paid work. The research reports two main findings. Firstly, even female part‐time workers at the bottom end of the occupational structure are not a homogeneous group of workers. Secondly, they are not all highly satisfied with their jobs. The article argues that many women (especially those in working‐class households) still do not have a genuine choice between ‘family work’ and ‘market work’. It concludes by presenting a theoretical model of orientations to work.     

基于拥挤收费的动态出发时间选择

针对动态交通分配领域中往往假定所有车辆的出发时间是固定的不正确假设，探讨基于拥挤收费的出发时间选择问题的负效用函数，建立动态出发时间选择问题的变分不等式模型．结果表明，建立的变分不等式模型等价于动态用户最优出发时间选择问题.     

智能化仪表传感器非线性校正的实现

本文描述了传感器非线性特性预处理的方法．实践证明该方法适用于标准或非标准特殊传感器，处理结果使智能型仪表的测试精度有显著提高．     

Using a computer simulation game to teach family time use concepts

A computer simulation game designed to give students insights into family time use concepts has been used in an introductory family resource management class at Ohio State University and other universities. The game allows for planning for time use changes over the family life cycle. The game can give students insights into economic and sociological models of time use. It is possible that future versions of the game could be used in family counseling.His research interests include derivation of optimal decision-making rules for families and family financial management.Her research interests include financial management over the life course including financial ratios, baby boomers, and retirement. She received her Ph.D. in 1993 from The Ohio State University in Family Resource Management.His research interests include the time trade-offs made between couples, financial planning over the life cycle, and the interaction of time and money between families and their home-based businesses. He received his Ph.D. in 1993 from The Ohio State University in Family Resource Management.