全文获取类型
收费全文 | 5981篇 |
免费 | 150篇 |
国内免费 | 21篇 |
专业分类
管理学 | 239篇 |
民族学 | 12篇 |
人口学 | 61篇 |
丛书文集 | 53篇 |
理论方法论 | 36篇 |
综合类 | 606篇 |
社会学 | 58篇 |
统计学 | 5087篇 |
出版年
2024年 | 8篇 |
2023年 | 31篇 |
2022年 | 38篇 |
2021年 | 67篇 |
2020年 | 104篇 |
2019年 | 199篇 |
2018年 | 281篇 |
2017年 | 420篇 |
2016年 | 211篇 |
2015年 | 172篇 |
2014年 | 233篇 |
2013年 | 1831篇 |
2012年 | 485篇 |
2011年 | 187篇 |
2010年 | 172篇 |
2009年 | 190篇 |
2008年 | 184篇 |
2007年 | 139篇 |
2006年 | 112篇 |
2005年 | 144篇 |
2004年 | 121篇 |
2003年 | 96篇 |
2002年 | 96篇 |
2001年 | 77篇 |
2000年 | 72篇 |
1999年 | 70篇 |
1998年 | 88篇 |
1997年 | 56篇 |
1996年 | 26篇 |
1995年 | 32篇 |
1994年 | 24篇 |
1993年 | 24篇 |
1992年 | 22篇 |
1991年 | 14篇 |
1990年 | 16篇 |
1989年 | 10篇 |
1988年 | 15篇 |
1987年 | 8篇 |
1986年 | 3篇 |
1985年 | 15篇 |
1984年 | 9篇 |
1983年 | 18篇 |
1982年 | 7篇 |
1981年 | 3篇 |
1980年 | 6篇 |
1979年 | 3篇 |
1978年 | 2篇 |
1977年 | 7篇 |
1975年 | 2篇 |
1973年 | 1篇 |
排序方式: 共有6152条查询结果,搜索用时 15 毫秒
21.
Stephanie M. Pickle Timothy J. Robinson Jeffrey B. Birch Christine M. Anderson-Cook 《Journal of statistical planning and inference》2008
Parameter design or robust parameter design (RPD) is an engineering methodology intended as a cost-effective approach for improving the quality of products and processes. The goal of parameter design is to choose the levels of the control variables that optimize a defined quality characteristic. An essential component of RPD involves the assumption of well estimated models for the process mean and variance. Traditionally, the modeling of the mean and variance has been done parametrically. It is often the case, particularly when modeling the variance, that nonparametric techniques are more appropriate due to the nature of the curvature in the underlying function. Most response surface experiments involve sparse data. In sparse data situations with unusual curvature in the underlying function, nonparametric techniques often result in estimates with problematic variation whereas their parametric counterparts may result in estimates with problematic bias. We propose the use of semi-parametric modeling within the robust design setting, combining parametric and nonparametric functions to improve the quality of both mean and variance model estimation. The proposed method will be illustrated with an example and simulations. 相似文献
22.
Gabriela Beganu 《Statistical Methods and Applications》2007,16(3):347-356
It is known that the Henderson Method III (Biometrics 9:226–252, 1953) is of special interest for the mixed linear models
because the estimators of the variance components are unaffected by the parameters of the fixed factor (or factors). This
article deals with generalizations and minor extensions of the results obtained for the univariate linear models. A MANOVA
mixed model is presented in a convenient form and the covariance components estimators are given on finite dimensional linear
spaces. The results use both the usual parametric representations and the coordinate-free approach of Kruskal (Ann Math Statist
39:70–75, 1968) and Eaton (Ann Math Statist 41:528–538, 1970). The normal equations are generalized and it is given a necessary
and sufficient condition for the existence of quadratic unbiased estimators for covariance components in the considered model. 相似文献
23.
The authors study the local influence of observations in multilevel regression models. To this end, they perturb simultaneously the variances, responses and design matrix. To measure the local change caused by these perturbations, they use generalized Cook statistics for the fixed and random parameter estimates. Closed form local influence measures also allow them to assess the joint influence of various observations. They suggest a simple computation method and illustrate their results using two examples. 相似文献
24.
Chunming M. Zhang 《Revue canadienne de statistique》2003,31(2):151-171
Many applications of nonparametric tests based on curve estimation involve selecting a smoothing parameter. The author proposes an adaptive test that combines several generalized likelihood ratio tests in order to get power performance nearly equal to whichever of the component tests is best. She derives the asymptotic joint distribution of the component tests and that of the proposed test under the null hypothesis. She also develops a simple method of selecting the smoothing parameters for the proposed test and presents two approximate methods for obtaining its P‐value. Finally, she evaluates the proposed test through simulations and illustrates its application to a set of real data. 相似文献
25.
The paper evaluates the accuracy of Burr approximations of critical values and p-values for test a of autocorrelation and heteroscedasticity in the linear regression model. 相似文献
26.
Impacts of complex emergencies or relief interventions have often been evaluated by absolute mortality compared to international standardized mortality rates. A better evaluation would be to compare with local baseline mortality of the affected populations. A projection of population-based survival data into time of emergency or intervention based on information from before the emergency may create a local baseline reference. We find a log-transformed Gaussian time series model where standard errors of the estimated rates are included in the variance to have the best forecasting capacity. However, if time-at-risk during the forecasted period is known then forecasting might be done using a Poisson time series model with overdispersion. Whatever, the standard error of the estimated rates must be included in the variance of the model either in an additive form in a Gaussian model or in a multiplicative form by overdispersion in a Poisson model. Data on which the forecasting is based must be modelled carefully concerning not only calendar-time trends but also periods with excessive frequency of events (epidemics) and seasonal variations to eliminate residual autocorrelation and to make a proper reference for comparison, reflecting changes over time during the emergency. Hence, when modelled properly it is possible to predict a reference to an emergency-affected population based on local conditions. We predicted childhood mortality during the war in Guinea-Bissau 1998-1999. We found an increased mortality in the first half-year of the war and a mortality corresponding to the expected one in the last half-year of the war. 相似文献
27.
BAYESIAN SUBSET SELECTION AND MODEL AVERAGING USING A CENTRED AND DISPERSED PRIOR FOR THE ERROR VARIANCE 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Edward Cripps Robert Kohn David Nott 《Australian & New Zealand Journal of Statistics》2006,48(2):237-252
This article proposes a new data‐based prior distribution for the error variance in a Gaussian linear regression model, when the model is used for Bayesian variable selection and model averaging. For a given subset of variables in the model, this prior has a mode that is an unbiased estimator of the error variance but is suitably dispersed to make it uninformative relative to the marginal likelihood. The advantage of this empirical Bayes prior for the error variance is that it is centred and dispersed sensibly and avoids the arbitrary specification of hyperparameters. The performance of the new prior is compared to that of a prior proposed previously in the literature using several simulated examples and two loss functions. For each example our paper also reports results for the model that orthogonalizes the predictor variables before performing subset selection. A real example is also investigated. The empirical results suggest that for both the simulated and real data, the performance of the estimators based on the prior proposed in our article compares favourably with that of a prior used previously in the literature. 相似文献
28.
对外汉语教学中的语码转换主要发生在汉语和媒介语或学生母语之间。作为一种辅助教学手段,语码转换可以成为沟通学生和教师的桥梁,可调节课堂气氛,发挥积极作用,但也有消极影响,其关键是要把握好使用的“度”。另一方面,应辩证看待在二语习得过程中,教师和学生都会出现大量选用目标语的简单语码,而回避复杂语码的现象。 相似文献
29.
Sarah Brown Karl Taylor 《Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A, (Statistics in Society)》2008,171(3):615-643
Summary. We explore the determinants of debt, financial assets and net worth at the household level by using survey data for Germany, Great Britain and the USA. To identify which households are potentially vulnerable to adverse changes in the economic environment, we also explore the determinants of a range of measures of financial pressure: the probability that a household has negative net worth; the debt-to-income ratio; mortgage income gearing; the saving-to-income ratio. Our empirical findings suggest that the poorest and the youngest households are the most vulnerable to adverse changes in their financial circumstances. 相似文献
30.
当前,提高农民收入必须从深化农村产业结构和各项制度改革、克服制约农民增收的内外部因素及采取各项配套措施等方面着手,使农民稳定增收落到实处。 相似文献